Goodwood 2026
All eyes at this time of the year are on the Breeders’ Cup and the races coming up at the end of October at Keeneland. The next of “win and you’re in” Breeders’ Cup Classic qualifiers is on Saturday, September 26 at Santa Anita with the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes. Reigning champion Nevada Beach headlines a field of nine hopefuls for Race 8 with a post time of 4:30 p.m. PT.
Here are the Goodwood Stakes post positions, horses, jockeys, trainers, and odds.
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | Taif | E. Jaramillo | B. Baffert | 8-1 |
| 2 | Vodka Vodka | K. Desormeaux | A. Ordonez | 15-1 |
| 3 | McAfee | H. Berrios | G. Weaver | 15-1 |
| 4 | Original Sin | K. Kimura | B. Walsh | 6-1 |
| 5 | Midnight Mammoth | T. Baze | C. Dollase | 30-1 |
| 6 | Mr. A. P. | J. Rosario | V. Cerin | 8-1 |
| 7 | Forged Steel | E. Gonzalez | S. Joseph Jr. | 5-1 |
| 8 | Caldera | P. Lopez | S. Joseph Jr. | 5-1 |
| 9 | Nevada Beach | J. Hernandez | B. Baffert | 7/5 |
Mr. A. P. is the only 3-year-old in the field, as five 4-year-olds, two 5-year-olds, and a long shot 7-year-old make up this year’s starting gate. Based on the odds, it looks like a pretty even battle for second behind Nevada Beach, who is the heavy favorite despite not having raced much this season.
Here are some thoughts on the horses in the Goodwood Stakes field:
1. Taif (8-1; Jaramillo/Baffert): Bob Baffert’s less-heralded entry comes off the rail here for Emisael Jaramillo, as Taif, who only raced once as a 3-year-old and missed his entire 4-year-old season, comes back to the dirt after a big turf win at Del Mar back on September 7. The son of Arrogate and Destine actually broke his maiden with that turf victory after finishing second in his December 2024 debut and then second again in January of this year. Antonio Fresu had the last ride, as Jaramillo picks it up this time. Baffert has won this race nine times and has had the winner in four of the last six years. He and the connections must think there’s something here, or at least a running style that benefits Nevada Beach.
2. Vodka Vodka (15-1; Desormeaux/Ordonez): Something of a rarity in racing nowadays, Kent Desormeaux has the mount for the 10th straight time aboard Vodka Vodka. The last time he didn’t was July 2024. In Desormeaux’s first mount, Vodka Vodka broke his maiden. He’s a five-time winner, including twice this year, with this rider and that has to inspire some confidence for trainer Aggie Ordonez and the connections. The son of Stay Thirsty and Margie’s Minute completely no-showed last time out in the Pat O’Brien after winning the Sunland Park Stakes and finishing second in the Santa Anita Handicap. The last time Vodka Vodka finished seventh under Desormeaux, he won the next time out. That was also an allowance race and not a G1 stakes.
3. McAfee (15-1; Berrios/Weaver): Is a trek to California what will help McAfee reach his full potential? The son of Cloud Computing has only won twice in 10 starts, but did win an allowance last time out at Saratoga before shipping westward. It was his first win since his first-ever race at Churchill Downs back on November 1, 2024. Twice McAfee has finished second in stakes events, both Grade 3 with the Peter Pan and West Virginia Derby as those events. He’s no stranger to shipping, having started at Churchill Downs (3), Aqueduct (3), Thistledown, Mountaineer, and Saratoga (2), but Cali is a longer trek.
Despite being cross-entered in the G2 Lukas Classic Stakes at Churchill, McAfee will indeed head west for this race per Marcus Hersh of DRF.
4. Original Sin (6-1; Kimura/Walsh): Also per that tweet above, Original Sin was cross-entered in the Lukas Stakes and will run in this race instead. This one makes a lot more sense, as he ran second to Knightsbridge in the Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar last month. The Blame Stakes winner didn’t fire at all in the Suburban Stakes at Saratoga on July 4, but seemed to like the California dirt in his G1 debut with a 101 Equibase Speed Figure. That ride went to Juan Hernandez, who got a brutal start from the gate, but that allowed the son of Curlin to showcase his closing speed to finish second at nearly 22/1 odds to win. This price is obviously adjusted, and there’s a rider change to Kazushi Kimura, who is having one of his best dirt seasons ever with a 20% win rate.
5. Midnight Mammoth (30-1; Baze/Dollase): It would take a mammoth effort for Midnight Mammoth to be involved in the outcome here. The 7-year-old gelding has 44 career starts with just nine wins. What Midnight Mammoth will do is help set the pace at the outset, which is an important role in this race.
6. Mr. A. P. (8-1; Rosario/Cerin): The son of American Pharoah and Trenchtown Cat is the biggest wild card in Saturday’s race. After finishing his 2-year-old season with a runner-up finish to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at almost 21-1, we didn’t get to see what Mr. A. P. was capable of in the Triple Crown or any of the other big summer races. An injury kept him in the barn and then trainer Vladimir Cerin had him get back into the swing of things on turf. Shipping to Kentucky Downs for the cash-rich turf meet in Franklin didn’t work out, as he ran ninth and then turned around and went back to California. The 71-year-old Cerin, who hasn’t eclipsed $1 million in earnings since 2023, must be feeling confident, as he’s deploying Mr. A. P. against an older crop and on a longer track.
7. Forged Steel (5-1; Gonzalez/Joseph Jr.): The two Saffie Joseph Jr. runners are next to each other, as pace-pressers Forged Steel and Caldera are in gates 7 and 8. Both are four years old, but Forged Steel has 20 career starts to just nine for Caldera. The year started off very nicely for Forged Steel with wins at Tampa Bay, Oaklawn Park, and here at Santa Anita in the Hollywood Gold Cup, but the last two finishes have been duds, including a total no-show in the Pacific Classic last month. Rider Edwin Gonzalez gets a shot at redemption with his second straight mount.
8. Caldera (5-1; Lopez/Joseph Jr.): Rider Paco Lopez is having an outstanding season as the top earner in meets at Colonial Downs, Monmouth Park, and Delaware Park and he’s approaching last year’s career-high of more than $13.3 million in earnings. Saffie Joseph is going to his money rider here aboard Caldera, a horse that Lopez rode to a win last time out over a mile at Colonial Downs. This is the highest-profile race for Caldera with only one other graded stakes to his name, an eighth-place finish in last year’s Louisiana Derby. Expect a lot of money to push this price down with MyRacehorse owners getting involved, as well as others who just like the form.
9. Nevada Beach (7/5; Hernandez/Baffert): Speaking of money riders, Baffert has his here in Juan Hernandez atop Nevada Beach, who is looking to repeat as the winner here. The four-time winner is hardly a sure thing, despite what the odds say. He’s only run once this year and it was in the Saudi Cup, where he finished 12th back on Valentine’s Day. It was a crazy end to last season for Nevada Beach, running three graded stakes from November 1 to December 28, beginning with the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where he finished seventh. With a seven-month layoff, who knows what his form will look like? On the other hand, you could make a case – and the odds make this case – that he is the best horse in the field.
Goodwood Stakes Predictions
I’m surely not taking Nevada Beach at 7/5 with all the questions. If he does win, good for him and for Baffert. My top two choices here are Original Sin and Caldera. Original Sin is the only true closer in the field and Kimura should be able to avoid the traffic to get the most out of him late. Staying in California after a strong Pacific Classic effort is a good call in my mind. Caldera is a play on Paco Lopez, who has been outstanding this season. Nevada Beach is good enough to fill out the tri, even without a 100% showing.
Goodwood Stakes Picks
4 – Original Sin
8 – Caldera
9 – Nevada Beach
2 – Vodka Vodka
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