Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst David Aragona handicaps the Thursday, September 24 racing card at Belmont Park, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 2.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Weseeulator (2nd race)
Second Race
1. Weseeulator
2. Bamboozie
3. Blazing Tiger
WESEEULATOR showed potential last winter at Gulfstream; got an education on debut when shuffled back on the far turn before launching a wide rally into the lane; improved stepping up in class 2nd time out, hitting the wire with one of today’s rivals in a race where neither had ideal trips; has been off for a while but returns off a steady series of drills on grass at Saratoga; new trainer Bruce Brown excels with turf sprinters and can have one ready off a layoff. BAMBOOZIE should appreciate the switch to grass after running like a horse who needed the debut experience; got squeezed back at the start, made a mild middle move, and flattened out; massive chestnut gelding is by 19% turf sprint sire Charlatan from the female family of Covfefe; suspect he’ll do better under these conditions. BLAZING TIGER seems like he might be best of the logical trio exiting Kentucky Downs starts; has had some trips along the way, but he’s already burned plenty of money and tends to make his own trouble.
Here are David’s thoughts on the other seven races on Thursday’s Belmont Park card.
First Race
1. Decimal Point
2. Lauren’s Time
3. Welcome Road
Primarily want the stretch-outs here since those with route experience aren’t especially formidable; DECIMAL POINT showed some ability in her sprint debut at the Spa; didn’t get away that quickly, but did well to stay on for third after enduring a wide trip; is bred to go longer on her dam’s side, and this barn tends to get them to improve after a start. LAUREN’S TIME switches to turf after barely lifting a hoof on debut; does exit a pretty tough maiden dirt field, and has enough turf pedigree to suggest she’ll improve on this surface; was especially encouraged by the visual of her Sep. 4 Oklahoma work where she just floated over the turf. WELCOME ROAD is the only one with route experience that I would use; had to check pretty badly past the wire the first time, losing all position; wish she had shown a bit more life after that, but still may benefit from the start. THE PAPER LADY is another candidate to improve with a race under her belt; like the top pick, she was wide throughout on debut; is a half-sister to turf route winners Sanctuary City and Considerate City.
Third Race
1. Emergence
2. Eliminate
3. Racing Driver
Wasn’t thrilled with the likely favorites in this competitive optional claimer; EMERGENCE is an intriguing claim by Jamie Ness, who excels with his dirt router acquisitions; 4YO has spent most of his career on turf, but his best efforts have arguably come on dirt; didn’t run that badly when chasing home graded stakes quality foe Chunk of Gold with a wide trip at Keeneland; draws well outside and should be the right price. ELIMINATE lost all chance last time at Saratoga when he stumbled to his face at the start; had previously won at this level two back, albeit against a weaker field than he meets today; still think he’s a rebound candidate for Linda Rice. RACING DRIVER hasn’t won in a while but has met some tough rivals along the way; seemed to get back on track last time at Saratoga when gamely chasing home gate-to-wire winner Georgia Magic; a mile is his best distance. The classy HILL ROAD has the past dirt form to beat this field, but want to watch one off the layoff for new connections.
Fourth Race
1. Intothewilderness
2. Private Property
3. Spinning Class
It’s hard to get too excited about any of the options in this uninspiring conditioned claiming group; my best guess is INTOTHEWILDERNESS, who got the wrong trip when hustled forward to chase 3-wide without cover last time; was never going to beat that field anyway; now she drops back down to a more appropriate level; figures to get held up and launch one run under capable turf jockey Antonio Fresu. PRIVATE PROPERTY would be a major player if she drew in off the AE list; beat a pretty solid maiden group last time and has prior turf form that would crush this group; would just have to overcome a wide draw. SPINNING CLASS is another exiting a long overdue maiden victory, though she didn’t beat much of a field when getting her diploma last time; still respect that she’s at least in good form, and skipping Saratoga to point for a spot like this was probably a wise move by Shug. PUTONAHAPPYFACE is the logical horse to beat picking up Flavien Prat; fits at this level, but none of her replays do much for me; would rather take others at better prices.
Fifth Race
1. Baseball Lady
2. Full Pour
3. Unlock the Value
This race might be more wide open than it appears at first glance; BASEBALL LADY looks a little cheaper than some main rivals, but this might be the right scenario for her to get back on track; she’s a horse who needs a forward trip to gain the confidence to finish her races and she figures to be vying for the lead here; Kendrick Carmouche rode her that way last time, but just got a little too aggressive and she ran off with him; actually did well to lead that field to mid-stretch after setting such a fast pace. FULL POUR was badly compromised by a stumbling start last time out of the Wilson Chute, but still put in a decent run to get up for third; a mile on dirt is her best trip, and she seems like a candidate to appreciate the sweeping turns of Belmont. UNLOCK THE VALUE is probably the one to beat off her 79 Beyer debut win, but that figure was earned in the slop over a woefully weak bunch; didn’t get an ideal trip stepping up against stakes foes over fast going, but still didn’t think she ran particularly well.
Sixth Race
1. Expensive Cut
2. Polar Bear Plunge
3. Interlock Empire
Have to give EXPENSIVE CUT another chance after liking him last time at a big price; had run better than it looks for Mertkan Kantarmaci coming into that start, but wasn’t too pleased with the ride he got up at the Spa; broke well, but was rated into the clubhouse turn and subsequently got very rank; this is not a horse that likes getting strangled in traffic, so the switch to an outside post going a mile at Belmont is ideal for him; has to hold his form off the claim for Rob Atras, but the price should be fair. POLAR BEAR PLUNGE finished some 11 lengths ahead of the top pick in that Aug. 28 race at this level; did well to just miss against a superior rival after a wide trip, but that was probably the day to have him at a price. INTERLOCK EMPIRE is tough to trust as he exits some sharp barns, but he was running races not long ago that would make him competitive with this bunch; goes first off the claim for an underrated low-profile trainer.
Seventh Race
1. Naguile
2. Gamebred
3. Salt Spartan
NAGUILE appears to fit pretty well in this wide open starter allowance; was off the board in 3 starts against winners at Saratoga, but didn’t get the right trips in any of those races; ran off on the lead setting fast splits on Jun. 3, then sustained wide journeys in each of his two subsequent starts over the summer; like the slight cutback to 7F for a horse who appears to have stamina limitations, and switching into the barn of Mike Maker certainly doesn’t hurt. Have been waiting for GAMEBRED to get a chance on turf since last year; finally gets the opportunity, but he must overcome a layoff in addition to the new surface; Honor A. P. is a decent grass influence, and this gelding is out of an 8-time turf winning dam. SALT SPARTAN could prove to be a shrewd claim for Dubb and Dutrow; has shown some turf ability on occasion, but can have trouble seeing out the two-turn routes; is another who should like the slight cutback to 7F.
Eighth Race
1. Thundertaker
2. Engraved
3. Classic Commander
THUNDERTAKER looks a little ridiculous on paper, having never run fast enough to win this and switching to turf with an obscure pedigree; thought he ran better than it appears in both Saratoga starts for Rob Atras, setting a fast pace and never changing leads two back before he was unwisely rated against a tougher field last time; the pedigree for turf is a bit hidden, but it’s there; half-sibling Flight Control did run one of her career-best races in a turf sprint, his dam is a half to G3 Elkhorn winner and G1-placed turfer Drama Critic, and the 2nd dam was a G2 winner on grass; even sire Son of Thunder improved on turf; picks up Ricardo Santana and will be a generous price in a race where I don’t trust anyone. ENGRAVED might be the most logical contender if he draws in off the AE list; was well-supported on debut but was ridden like a horse who was just out for experience; then got rank when sent from a wide draw routing last time; cutting back and dropping seems like the right idea. CLASSIC COMMANDER has more of a route profile, but owns some of the best turf form in this field; tends to get rank early in those longer races, so perhaps turning back into a faster-paced affair will work out well for him.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
