MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, September 24.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:35 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy has a 3.65 ERA with one home run and 2.7 walks per nine innings allowed, but has been limited to three innings or fewer in each of his past four starts. He is supported by a bullpen that is 24th in ERA at 4.52, while the offense is third in the league in road scoring with 5.2 runs per game. The Cardinals will look to get after Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes, who has had an uncharacteristically rough season with a 3.91 ERA despite getting 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings with only one home run per nine innings allowed. Skenes is supported by a lineup that is fifth in scoring with 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Pirates Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
3:10 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher Tanner Gordon has had his struggles this season with a 6.01 ERA and 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed, with his ERA jumping to 8.20 at home with over 2.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has experienced some recent regression with at least three runs allowed in three of his past four starts and overall might be in for more regression on his 2.89 ERA, as he has a 3.88 fielding independent with 6.9 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings. Colorado is seventh in scoring with over 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: Diamondbacks Run Line -1.5 -112 and Over 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -1.5 -124 and Total 11.3
7:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler has been incredible this season with a 1.94 ERA and 11 strikeouts per nine innings, but has been significantly better on the road than at home with a 2.98 ERA at home compared to a 1.16 ERA away from home. Rays starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has been significantly better recently with three runs allowed in his past five starts, but in his past nine starts has gotten only seven strikeouts per nine innings, while his career average is 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Overall this season, Peralta owns a 4.56 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -145 and Over 6.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -163 and Total 7.1
7:15 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
Since getting to Atlanta after beginning the season with the San Francisco Giants, Tyler Mahle has been on a roll with a 1.28 ERA in eight starts in a Braves uniform, but a 2.82 fielding independent in this span and an overall 3.81 ERA with 8.3 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings do point toward regression. Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has a 5.67 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings allowed, and the Reds are 26th in bullpen ERA at 4.76.
Pick: Braves Run Line -1.5 +105 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -1.5 -117 and Total 8.3
10:10 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow overall this season has a 3.46 ERA with 11.6 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings, but has allowed at least four runs in two of his past three starts. Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta has a 3.30 ERA with a 2.33 fielding independent, but has gone five innings or fewer in all three of his starts since spending over four months on the injured list. He faces a Dodgers lineup that now has Shohei Ohtani back and overall is fourth in the league in scoring with over five runs per game, while the Padres are third in scoring since the All-Star Break with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Padres vs. Dodgers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
