Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer analyze the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, a one-turn mile Kentucky Derby prep.
Saturday’s featured race at Aqueduct is the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes – the final race on a 10-race card, with a post time of 5:18 p.m. Eastern. The $300,000 race awards Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale. Nine horses were originally entered, but the field goes with eight after No. 8 Creole Chrome was cross-entered at Fair Grounds and will not make the trip. The one-turn mile serves as the traditional prep for the Wood Memorial in early April. Aragona and Beer land on different horses to win.
The horse to beat: No. 6 Iron Honor
At 6-5 on the morning line, Iron Honor enters off a single start – a debut victory at Aqueduct last December that produced a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest number in this field by a significant margin. Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Manny Franco, this Nyquist colt kept pace with a fast early clip at six furlongs and held off a quality runner-up in Crossing the Channel. The speed figure is legitimate, though Aragona noted that the track on Dec. 13 at Aqueduct was playing fast and may have inflated the number slightly. He also flagged a recent workout at Payson Park where Iron Honor appeared to get slightly outworked by a lower-quality stablemate – not ideal for a horse going off at a short price in his stakes debut. Brown’s numbers off debut dirt wins in stakes races also are a notable negative. Beer acknowledges all of this but simply doesn’t love anyone else in the field, calling Iron Honor the “default” option and placing him on top.
Aragona’s top pick: No. 5 Right to Party
Aragona takes a stand against the favorite and selects Right to Party as his pick to win. Trained by Kenny McPeek, this Constitution colt debuted in the same race as Iron Honor in December, getting bumped at the break and fighting a tough track profile to still finish third. Added distance suited him well last time when he won a one-mile maiden race at Aqueduct – rallying off a contested pace under Reylu Gutierrez despite covering extra ground and still showing greenness by hanging on his left lead late. Aragona sees another step forward coming given the raw edges still visible. The TimeformUS Pace Projector shows Right to Party carrying the top late-pace rating in the field – a significant edge if the front end heats up.
Supporting contenders
No. 2 Hammond, a South Florida shipper for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., has improved in every start and ran third in the Swale Stakes despite a slow break and a wide, five-path trip. Both handicappers wonder about the distance – he is a half-brother to a confirmed sprinter.
No. 3 Crown the Buckeye, trained by Mike Maker, turns back in distance after failing to stay two turns at Fair Grounds. The one-turn mile looks like a better fit, and he has figures in the mid-80s from better efforts. Beer puts him second.
No. 1 Balboa ran a solid third in the Remsen behind two genuine Derby contenders, then disappointed as a heavy favorite in the Jerome. Trainer Brittany Russell scratched him from an easier Maryland spot to run here, which could be a positive sign.
No. 4 Fourth and One gets a pass for a disastrous Withers trip – pulled three wide on a day with a severe rail bias – but prior form doesn’t scream open-stakes quality.
No. 7 Exhibition Only won a conditioned claimer last out on a favorable Aqueduct surface.
No. 9 Dirty Rich posted an 89 Beyer in the Advent Stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs, but the one-turn mile from the outside post is a significant ask.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 5 Right to Party
No. 2 Hammond
No. 3 Crown the Buckeye
No. 6 Iron Honor
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 6 Iron Honor
No. 3 Crown the Buckeye
No. 5 Right to Party
No. 1 Balboa
Beer reluctantly sides with the favorite, while Aragona makes a clear stand against him. Crown the Buckeye lands on both sets of picks as the most appealing middle-of-the-road option in what both handicappers view as a wide-open race beneath the favorite.
Want to go deeper on the Gotham Stakes? View FREE Daily Racing Form Past Performances for today’s featured race.
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