Mike Somich’s Gulfstream Picks:
With just 10 days left in the year, the horse racing world is ready to reset and celebrate the birthday of every horse (all horses age up on Jan 1st). On the 26th, we have a monster card from Santa Anita, but first, we have three graded stakes at Gulfstream Park to play!
Harlan’s Holiday, Race #9, Gulfstream Park
The Graded stakes kick off on the dirt in the Harlan’s Holiday, a mile and a sixteenth race for older males which serves as a starting point for the run to the Pegasus Invitational. The morning line favorite, #2 Tumbarumba enters off a decent 4th place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He’s had success over this course in the past, winning the Grade 2 Fred Hooper, but distance could be the issue. All of his wins have come at a mile or shorter. He did run a solid 2nd going today’s distance in the Grade 3 Ghostzapper, but that was against a weaker field than today. #1 Tuscan Sky returns to graded stakes company after a lackluster return to the track off a 5-month layoff. He’s been a “buzz” horse twice, jumping into major stakes company last year in an attempt to run in the Derby and a failed attempt at the Haskell. Pletcher sends him back to stakes company today showing the barn still believes there is huge upside with this horse, the question is will he realize it today. Both Tuscan Sky and Tumbarumba want to be forwardly placed in a race that drew a large amount of speed. That sets it up for #6 Steal Sunshine who will be rolling late. He’s won six times at this track, but has yet to win at this distance. He finished 3rd in this race last year, but that was without much pace signed on. The projected trip today, accompanied by the 4-1 price makes him very enticing. #7 Rocket Can never quite hit the ceiling of his projected talents after a Kentucky Derby run in his 3-year-old season. He’s got something to prove here, but the fact that Bill Mott decided to enter him here makes me believe he still thinks there is some upside that has not been reached.
Picks – 6-1-7-2
Bets –
$50 Win #6
Ft. Lauderdale Stakes, Race #10, Gulfstream Park
This year’s Ft Lauderdale offers a nice field of nine runners who all have at least some issue when looking over the past performances. #5 Win for the Money is your favorite and a logical contender in this spot. He’s dropping in from back to back Grade 1 races including the Breeders’ Cup Mile where he ran last. The class drop is key here and a return to the effort in the Woodbine Mile win makes him tough here. Distance is the main question here, he’s never won going longer than a mile and a sixteenth, today is a mile and an eighth. He does have success over the course, he’s crossed the wire first in both starts here, but the price is short. #2 Grand Sonata also has some distance concerns, but in the opposite direction. He’s been at a mile and three eights or longer in his last four starts with his two best career races in that span. He has won at today’s distance, but will be much further back today with the cutback in distance. While #4 Major Dude is stepping up in class today, he checks all the other boxes for me. He’s improving at the right time and coming off a freshening late in his 4-year-old season. He fired off the bench to start this season so the layoff is not a concern and Irad takes the mount for Pletcher. He is quick enough to stay in it early and should have the kick to get it home. #7 Siege of Boston has not won yet this year, but always seems to be in the mix. He’s one over his course and the distance so we know that he can handle today’s surface and distance while being forwardly placed. He is a horse I’ll be using underneath in trifectas and exactas.
Picks – 4-5-2-7
$50 Win #4
Spot Plays –
Gulfstream Park, Race #8 – $50 Win #1
Gulfstream Park, Race #11 – $50 Win #8
