Weekend horse racing handicapper best bets from Mike Somich
What a Saturday we have in store! Keeneland has a wonderful card including an all-graded stakes Pick 5. Belmont at the Big A features five graded stakes including the Grade 1 Champaign, and Santa Anita rolls out three graded stakes including the Grade 1 American Pharoah with Bafferts’ best 2-year-old Muth. All in all, from Friday to Sunday, 14 Breeders’ Cup Win and You Are In races will be run all over the country! The aforementioned Champaign will feature the current Breeder’s Cup Juvenile favorite Fierceness who will try to follow up a dazzling debut for Todd Pletcher with a Grade 1 win.
Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes – Keeneland, Saturday, Race #7
This prep for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint features a rematch of #1 Wicked Halo and #6 Yuugiri. Last time out in the Open Mind, Wicked Halo went off as a short-price favorite and was a no show while Yuugiri rolled home with a decisive win. That was the first poor effort of Wicked Halo’s career and, when compared to the body of work, is a race you just toss and look to get a better price next time out. That is exactly what we should get here.
While Yuugiri won last time out, her best effort probably lands her in third or fourth here if she fires. #4 Static Fire returns to the Keeneland dirt where she has won in her only effort. Her last race was her first start off a lengthy layoff in a difficult spot at Kentucky Downs. She ran exceptionally well all things considered and has every right to step forward again today. Keeneland mainstay Wesley Ward sends out #5 Happy Soul who has run well over this Keeneland track. She will need to be forwardly placed to be effective to expect to see her close to the front early.
Picks: 1-4-6-5
Bets: I love that we should get a better price on Wicked Halo today so let’s play a win wager there and an exacta with Wicked Halo on top:
$20 Win – #1
$20 Exacta – #1 with #4
Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, Keeneland, Saturday, Race #9
Of the three preps for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, this is the one I am looking forward to the most. Your favorite will be #9 Locked, coming out of a dominant 1 Mile win over the Saratoga dirt. He’s got the best numbers in the field, but the post is a bit of a concern in a race that features quite a bit of speed. He is likely to have to be wide on both turns to be able to get the win here.
I’m interested in the #1 The Wine Steward, a perfect 3-for-3 coming into the race with two stakes wins. This will be the first time trying two turns, but the pedigree on the top and bottom screams the longer, the better. He should get an excellent trip as well saving ground on the inside and has come from off the pace in all three of his wins which bodes well in a race full of speed.
Brad Cox will send out #3 Awesome Road who was a very nice debut winner at Ellis Park last out. He sold for $600,000 at auction, and Prat takes the mount for the quickest horse out of the gate. If he clears, he’s got a shot to take this one gate to wire.
The wildcard is #6 Generous Tipper who is 15-1 on the morning line. Kenny McPeek seems to pull off a price in one of these races each year and Generous Tipper is on the rise. If he can stalk today, he’s a live price.
Picks: 1-3-9-6
Bets: Let’s keep it simple here.
$20 Win – #1.
Spot plays:
Saturday, Belmont at The Big A, Race #6, #3 Alogon $20 to Win
Saturday, Keeneland, Race #8, $20 Trifecta 3-2-4
