Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst David Aragona handicaps the Wednesday, October 7 racing card at Belmont Park, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 2.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Badittude (2nd race)
Second Race
1. Badittude
2. Mioruilt
3. Keshi
There are some well-bred fillies drawn towards the outside that figure to attract attention, so perhaps we’ll get a fair price on proven commodity BADITTUDE, who stretches out in her 3rd career start; don’t love that she didn’t take much money in either start up at the Spa, but she does seem like one with more of a route profile; her unraced dam is a full-sister to G2 Mother Goose runner-up Classic Fit; like the way this filly stayed on through the wire after chasing an honest pace last time. MIORUILT apparently worked well with Chad Brown’s debut winner Beauty Truth Good (71 Beyer) on Sep. 12, according to a prior DRF Clocker Report; Good Magic filly is a half-sister to 3 graded stakes-placed dirt routers including Preakness 3rd-place finisher Creative Minister. There are 2 Godolphin 2nd-time starters in this field; KESHI figures to offer better value than VERY CLEVER as both exit the same race; the former didn’t take any money, but looked like a filly that would need more ground, getting off to a sluggish start and just plodding along at one pace.
Here are David’s thoughts on the other eight races on Wednesday’s Belmont Park card.
First Race
1. Weighted Average
2. Thankfulness
3. Don’t Jinx It
Don’t love taking favorites coming off long layoffs, but WEIGHTED AVERAGE may just be too good for this field; has steadily improved over the course of her career, and was in great form when last seen racing in Kentucky and Florida; beat a pretty good field of allowance foes skipping a condition at this level two back, then held her own against graded stakes foes; Chad Brown is 9/25 (36%, $2.62 ROI) off 200-400 day layoffs in 9-11F turf races at NYRA over 5 years. Her main rivals appear to be the Clement pair; slightly prefer the younger THANKFULNESS at what figures to be a better price; stayed on into a slow pace against some nice 3YOs last time; just not totally convinced about her stretching out. DON’T JINX IT is a threat to wire the field, but wish she had shown a bit more progression and finish in her 2 starts so far this year.
Third Race
1. Toscano
2. Mission Critical
3. Schlomo
It’s hard to get too excited about the recent form of TOSCANO, but can at least make excuses for his disappointing efforts; twice was compromised at the start coming out of the Wilson Chute at Saratoga, and it’s generally wise to be forgiving in those situations; his gate issues continued last time at Finger Lakes, where he rallied belatedly into a slow pace; obviously have to be concerned he’ll break poorly again, but at least there’s plenty of speed in here to set up his late run; he’s returning to NYRA at the right class level. MISSION CRITICAL is another returning from Finger Lakes; he, too, didn’t get a particularly good trip when last seen at that venue, racing wide on both turns; prefers sprinting anyway, and would be a factor here if he could get back to his Jun. 27 effort at Aqueduct. SCHLOMO completes the Finger Lakes trifecta going out for the same connections as the top pick; is another who will appreciate cutting back in distance.
Fourth Race
1. Likeness
2. Mutaawid
3. Iron Sight
Something appeared to go wrong with LIKENESS when he was last seen at Saratoga; he suddenly came off the bridle approaching the half-mile pole and abruptly dropped back to last; he’s been given time off since then, logging 14 drills like clockwork downstate as if Shug was just waiting out the Saratoga meet; lightly raced 3YO still has upside and should be tough if he builds on that effort from May. MUTAAWID nailed the top pick on the wire in that May 7 allowance at Aqueduct under a perfectly timed ride from Kendrick Carmouche, who seems to get along with this guy quite well; this feels like a perfect distance for him; though he is dropping slightly after he was a regulatory vet scratch when entered against tougher 3 weeks ago. IRON SIGHT is clearly the horse to beat based on his trio of performances this season; though, he had a chance to win last time and just seemed to hang through the final 1/8th; not one I’d want to lean on at a short price.
Fifth Race
1. Max O Nidas
2. Audible Johnny
3. Vapor Trail
Found it hard to get excited about any of the bigger prices in this maiden claimer; MAX O NIDAS took money primarily due to connections in his Saratoga debut, but still ran a respectable race; got away slowly after getting bumped at the start, but stayed on decently with a rail rally; now makes his first start off the claim for Michelle Nevin, adding blinkers. AUDIBLE JOHNNY seems like the one to beat as he drops in class; did well to hang on for 4th after contesting a fast pace that completely fell apart last time; would like him more if not for the presence of the very quick Medieval drawn to his outside. VAPOR TRAIL is another racing first time for a tag after facing tougher; suspect this horse will ultimately be best on grass based on his pedigree and action, but the drop in class could still wake him up.
Sixth Race
1. Hammerhead
2. In the Dark
3. Hard Circle
It’s unclear if HAMMERHEAD still possesses the will to win races, but he did not get ideal trips in a few starts at Woodbine earlier this year; disappointed when he returned to turf at Saratoga last time; but getting rushed forward to contest a fast pace isn’t really his best running style; now gets claimed by a trainer who is capable of turning form around, and switches to a rider who is likely to revert to closing tactics. IN THE DARK is moving up in class after defeating conditioned claiming foes last time; tried to run off in the early stages setting a fast pace but still battled back when challenged in deep stretch; horses have returned from the race to flatter that form; now lands in another spot where he should control up front. HARD CIRCLE feels like the one to beat off his solid recent form since the claim by Mike Maker; got a very good trip last time but nevertheless defeated several of today’s rivals; should work out another favorable journey from this inside draw.
Seventh Race
1. Sociably Johnny
2. Smilensaycheese
3. Dinner Royale
SOCIABLY JOHNNY was strangely thrown into a stakes first off the claim for Linda Rice at Saratoga; was conservatively ridden early, suggesting that probably wasn’t a target spot; ran well when he stretched out at Saratoga 2 back, suggesting that he has potential going long; appreciate that Linda Rice isn’t dropping back in for a tag as he makes his 2nd start off the claim. SMILENSAYCHEESE ran deceptively well against a decent field of open claimers last time, making a wide bid from off the pace on a day when speed appeared to be an advantage; now goes first off the claim for James Ferraro, who is 7/32 (22%, $4.44 ROI) with that move over the last 3 years; has the ability to beat a field like this and showed last time that this move to Belmont agrees with him; just needs some pace to develop. DINNER ROYALE was outrun to the lead out of the Wilson Chute last time, and got vanned off after the race; ran well 2 back after contesting a fast pace and deserves another chance going a mile.
Eighth Race
1. Mobile
2. Tuthilltown
3. Pelican Pride
MOBILE had trained well prior to her debut and delivered with a professional effort first time out at Saratoga; Graham Motion probably got away with one when she wasn’t claimed, as she looked better than your average firster at that level; Motion is 8/27 (30%, $2.37 ROI) with last-out debut winners making their 2nd starts on turf over 5 years; feels like one that can ascend the class ladder quickly, and don’t mind a little added ground for her. Main rival TUTHILLTOWN gets class relief after chasing home the superior Maria Callas on opening day; her tendency to break slowly and get outrun early tends to give her a lot to do late; should be rolling through the lane if pace develops. PELICAN PRIDE moves up in class to face winners after beating a soft group of maiden claimers last time; has never sprinted before, but she’s a smaller body type with a quick action, and tends to pull early in her races; those types often prefer shorter distances.
Ninth Race
1. Ori
2. Cravings
3. Griselda
Not trying to beat ORI, who was best when holding on to win at this level last time; opened up early to set some enterprising fractions before kicking on again when challenged through the lane; not sure why the prior connections dropped but her back class should make her awfully tough to beat right back in this spot; interestingly, has been acquired by Mark Casse, who doesn’t claim many horses, but is 24:6-5-5 (25%, $2.55 ROI) with this move over 5 years. Mildly intrigued by CRAVINGS making this switch to turf, especially since she’s in such sharp form for a dangerous barn; Essential Quality is a 15% turf route sire and her dam is a half-sister to Travers winner Colonel John, who was a decent turf influence as a sire. GRISELDA got back on track when 2nd to the top pick last time out, but she had every chance to run that rival down and just got turned away late; now makes her first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who doesn’t have the strongest stats with this move.
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