Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, October 7, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-82 on run lines (-31.80 units, ROI: -26.1%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-1.5 vs TB)
* Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 36-24 SU (+11.01 units, ROI: 18.4%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+100 at CWS)
Trend: Home teams are on a 10-2 (83.3%, +7.38 units) surge in the Padres-Brewers set
– The ROI on this trend is 61.5%.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-112 vs MIL)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* MILWAUKEE: 23-9-1 to the Under for +13.1 units
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-SD (o/u at 7.5)
* CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 8-3 to the Over for +4.68 units
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-CWS (o/u at 8)
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line angles
– Road favorites of -140 or higher are on a 36-31 SU run since 2001 (+3.65 units, ROI: +5.4%)
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-155 at ATL)
– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable. They are just 95-88 SU (-29.67 units, ROI: -16.2%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-121 vs CLE), NY YANKEES (-167 vs TB), SAN DIEGO (-112 vs MIL)
Coming off wins/losses
– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 67-68 SU (-19.15 units, ROI: -14.2%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+128 vs LAD), NY YANKEES (-167 vs TB)
Series wins status
– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 43-47 SU (-26.90 units, ROI: -29.9%) since 2013.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-167 vs TB), SAN DIEGO (-112 vs MIL)
Stats from last game trends
– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 55-67 SU (-36.04 units, ROI: -29.5%) and 40-82 on run lines (-31.80 units, ROI: -26.1%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES
– Teams playing as underdogs (or pick ’em) in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 44-69 SU (-14.22 units, ROI: -12.6%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-107 at SD)
Trends based upon regular season records
– In the last six playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 15-35 on run lines (-22.55 units, ROI: -45.1%) in playoff games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at ATL), MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at SD)
Totals angles
– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 110-105-2, and Overs have produced a return of +19.96 units, an ROI of 9.3%. Total odds are usually heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches: PLAY OVER IN ALL FOUR GAMES
Divisional Round Angles
– Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 73-53 SU (+3.33 units, ROI: 2.6%) and 64-62 on run lines (+8.40 units, ROI: 6.7%) since ‘15.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX
– Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 36-24 SU (+11.01 units, ROI: 18.4%). These follow-up games also tend to go Under on totals, 34-23 (+8.85 units, ROI: 15.5%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+100 at CWS)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-CWS (o/u at 8)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For ’26, these teams got off to a slow start but roared back in the season’s final month, ending the campaign with a record of 318-216 for +8.23 units and an ROI of +1.5% (6-4, +0.14 units in the playoffs).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-155 at ATL), NY YANKEES (-167 vs TB)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
– Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss (3-4, -0.69 units in the playoffs).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+100 at CWS), TAMPA BAY (+138 at NYY), MILWAUKEE (-107 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
– I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results showed a record of 87-112 for -25.54 units and a solid ROI of -12.8% (2-2, +0.54 units in the playoffs).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-121 vs CLE)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 688-688 for +12.15 units, good for +0.9% ROI.
Ratings Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY +138 (+10 diff)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 33-15-1 for +15.55 units and an ROI of 32.4%.
Ratings Match (PLAY): CLE-CWS UNDER 8 (-1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(937) CLEVELAND (85-79) at (938) CHICAGO-AL (88-78)
Trend: Over the total has converted in 22 of the last 23 Chicago White Sox games when they are playing with at least one day of rest
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-CWS (o/u at 8)
Trend: CWS is 49-32 (+13.06 units) on the run line in HOME games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+1.5 vs CLE)
(939) LOS ANGELES-NL (102-63) at (940) ATLANTA (97-71)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow’s teams are just 5-8 (-4.05 units) in his last 13 October starts
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-155 at ATL)
Trend: LAD is 53-70 (-22.36 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 21-11-2 (+8.90 units) when ATL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-ATL (o/u at 7.5)
(941) TAMPA BAY (100-64) at (942) NEW YORK-AL (95-70)
Trend: Under the total is 20-11 (+7.90 units) with starter Nick Martinez this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-NYY (o/u at 7)
Trend: Max Fried’s teams are 5-2 when he starts vs Tampa Bay in his career (1.81 ERA across these seven appearances)
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-167 vs TB)
(943) MILWAUKEE (105-60) at (944) SAN DIEGO (94-73)
Trend: MIL is 16-6 (+7.34 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at SD)
Trend: SD is 54-30 (+18.76 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-112 vs MIL)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #2: Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Trend: ATLANTA is 9-4 (69.2%, +7.66 units) in their last 13 games versus LAD
– The ROI on this trend is 58.9%.
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+128 vs LAD)
Series #3: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Trend: Home teams are 11-4 (73.3%, +6.38 units) in the Yankees-Rays AL East rivalry this season
– The ROI on this trend is 42.5%.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-167 vs TB)
Series #4: Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
Trend: Home teams are on a 10-2 (83.3%, +7.38 units) surge in the Padres-Brewers set
– The ROI on this trend is 61.5%.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-112 vs MIL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and a ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): MILWAUKEE (-107 at SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 Uunits and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-167 vs TB)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (11-8, +0.45 units in 2026).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+100 at CWS), LA DODGERS (-155 at ATL), NY YANKEES (-167 vs TB), MILWAUKEE (-107 at SD)
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