The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2026 tennis season is here, as the top players in the world are competing at the Paris La Defense Arena for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next week or so. That continues with my tennis predictions and best bets for Friday, November 6. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate, but don’t stop there. Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSiN picks page daily, and I’ll also be adding some additional plays there.
Tommy Paul vs. Ben Shelton
Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz
I wish I had some straightforward sides or totals for the Friday slate, but that’s unfortunately not the case. However, I do have a strong lean on Paul to beat Shelton, and I’m happy to lower the ask a bit by using Alcaraz. I’m taking Paul to win a set off Shelton and parlaying it with Alcaraz moneyline over Fritz. That gets me to -147.
Paul has looked excellent since arriving in Paris, getting to this point in the tournament without dropping a set. He looks a little rejuvenated, and his game can give Shelton fits when he’s playing well. Paul is still a world-class returner, meaning he should make Shelton work for plenty of his service holds. He also has the kind of baseline game that can bother Shelton. His court coverage is elite, and he redirects pace extremely well. I also like that Shelton’s backhand is a weakness, meaning Paul won’t be overmatched when trading crosscourt forehands into that wing.
All in all, I see Paul moving Shelton around and forcing him to play a ton of balls from uncomfortable positions. That should be enough for him to get on the board.
As far as the other match goes, I think we’re heading toward another Alcaraz title, and I don’t see Fritz being the one to derail that. Even when Fritz is having a good day, Alcaraz’s backhand is good enough to neutralize the American’s two-hander. That’s rough on Fritz, as it’s his most impactful baseline stroke. Alcaraz’s variety is also big in a matchup like this, as Fritz has a weak transition game. Alcaraz can expose that with his drop shots and short slices.
PARLAY: Paul +1.5 Sets & Alcaraz ML (-147 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
