Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, September 11 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Mischief Bound (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Mischief Bound
2. Ice Empress
3. Appeals to Me
Among first-timers with work video available, MISCHIEF BOUND really, really stood out. She has scope, she’s got some speed, and she very much from the appearance on the little computer screen has “it” – talent, charisma. I’d expect her to be bet accordingly. ICE EMPRESS’s strong rallying second came with a ride that suggested connections wanted her to have a good first racing experience as much as they wanted to win. Not even hard ridden when she surged late into second, and has come back with solid work pattern. Maybe I’m totally missing the boat here, but while the Cox-trained firster APPEALS TO ME showed out a bit in work video, the Cox-trained firster Guiding Star, who apparently is supposed to be the “A” team, didn’t show much at all, at least in the drills I saw.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Friday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Tom Cat Tuesday
2. Accretive
3. Tarantino
TOM CAT TUESDAY still looking for first win since the $50K claim last November, and while he could not do for $62.5K and N1X at Churchill earlier in the summer, a mushy $40K claimer could do the trick. It’s not like a really “like” the horse, but he looks, potentially, like the best value. ACCRETIVE freshened and looks carefully prepared for the class hike off the claim on June 26, his most recent race. 7yo has been around and has no upside, but some sort of bounce back would put him in the mix. I just think three-quarters is too short for TARANTINO, even if he comes back toward one of his better recent performances.
Second Race
1. Shaved Ice
2. Chasing Em
3. King Crusher
While he hardly cuts an awesome physical figure, first-timer SHAVED ICE in three work videos, all solo drills, did not look at all hapless. $37K auction buy debuts for $50K and FWIW attracts jockey J Ortiz. CHASING EM has worked (seemingly) all right on dirt, and the debut dud came on turf. Ran so badly they can drop him to $50K and feel somewhat comfortable about not losing the horse – if, indeed, that would be a concern. KING CRUSHER had to cope with rail draw last time and now has more comfortable outside post, and while he’s up from $30K maiden-claimer, I wouldn’t call this a serious class hike given the seeming nature of the group.
Third Race
1. Title Worthy
2. Never a Doubt
3. Sargent Bilko
This short-field 2yo allowance will be bet as a two-horse race, one assumes, and I don’t trust either one of them at the price. TITLE WORTHY beat 11 foes in his debut, which might be better than the speed figure and did come on a sloppy track. Worked back a quick half mile and might have a decent amount of improvement in him despite the debut score. NEVER A DOUBT and SARGENT BILKO are the two who’ll be shortest on the board. Never a Doubt at least has speed, adds blinkers, and finished well ahead of Sargent Bilko last out, so not sure why he’d be the longer price. Sargent Bilko was ready early, but signs since that debut score suggest he was precocious more than anything.
Fourth Race
1. Rockie Rockie
2. Jus Like Always
3. Greatest Hits
ROCKIE ROCKIE is not a big gal, but Sept. 5 work video shows her running away from a work mate with a burst around the turn on the way to a six or seven-furlong gallop out, suggesting she’s more than ready for her debut. No work video, unfortunately, for first-timer JUS LIKE ALWAYS, because her pattern/times hold a lot of appeal. Cox-trained firster GREATEST HITS from the limited video I can see looked more “okay” than “really good,” though she is an Into Mischief, and they can fool you with the way they go.
Fifth Race
1. Valiant Humor
2. Good Mojo
3. Ecosystem
One-run closer VALIANT HUMOR needs a lot of pace help to have a chance – and it very much looks like he’s landed in a race where he’s going to get it. Turf comeback run late last month should serve him well, and he’s still a fresh horse having gotten much of the summer off. Holds firm for the $50K these connections paid. GOOD MOJO almost certainly better in sprints than the 1 1/2-turn Ellis mile – even though he ran decently last out. Led three back because he had the rail, and can work out a good trip stalking a hot pace. ECOSYSTEM is probably generally in the right spot, but he’s drawn inside and has at least a touch of pace, and I wonder how his trip pans out.
Sixth Race
1. Wild Recruit
2. Bird the Legend
3. Kid Twist
Almost always like a long-layoff comebacker for a capable barn running in a claiming race with the claiming price waived, as is the case with WILD RECRUIT. Ran about as well as he ever had first off claim last September while going a two-turn mile that proved a little too far. He will be coming back ready to fire, I’d think. BIRD THE LEGEND had the $16K claim voided last time but whatever – he’s worked back five times and is back at the same class level. See that short comment from last out “chased inside” – I don’t think he wants to be a chaser. I think he wants to sit back and make a run. KID TWIST back from two-month break in for much less than the $40K claiming price these connections paid – and for that race, you’d have to think they have him as good as they can to win off the break, which he can do if hitting his level from two races back.
Eighth Race
1. Tiz Mary’s Comet
2. Trouble Ahead
3. Keep On Moving
TIZ MARY’S COMET didn’t respond much to the surface-switch experiment and will hit very hard at this class level going back to dirt with a nice break and four (that’s a lot!) works between races. TROUBLE AHEAD ran too bad to be true last out – considering connections hold firm at the N3L starter class. Bounce back to contending form seems pretty likely. Trainer M Tomlinson has really taken his time bringing KEEP ON MOVING up to his first race off a $50K claim, and I’d bet that pays dividends. His baseline is a strong fit at this level.
Ninth Race
1. Being Myself
2. Blue Fire
3. Rando
BEING MYSELF ran very well about this time last year on the CD dirt, which I don’t take to mean nothing, and the Jan. 9 odds-on defeat to Bless the Broken looks much better now that BTB clearly established as graded-stakes horse. Got the turf experiment after being taken to SAR – nothing doing, and since freshened up with one presumes a focus on this very spot. BLUE FIRE bounced back to some extent on June 28 but still not her best self after a demanding form cycle. She’ll have benefited from the freshening, and I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t contend. As alluded to in this space the other day, giving extra consideration to everything that trainer A Shorter runs right now, and RANDO was “fast enough” Aug. 2 to merit a look.
Tenth Race
1. Roguishness
2. El Ramundo
3. Wicked Gun
Extended layoff, MSW to MCL moves both plus for this barn, and while I’m sure connections are very much selling pricey auction buy ROGUISHNESS, that doesn’t mean he can’t also win. Predict he’ll be back to showing a bit more positional pace – like race three back. EL RAMUNDO’s turf debut with the benefit of his second race, on dirt, looks more like a race worth of experience than a marker of ability. Can see him taking another decent step forward after the sloppy-track improvement about 10 weeks ago. Eight MSW tries, and they’ve seen enough of WICKED GUN, but his recent mild improvement makes him a contender for $30K MCL.
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