EPL Best Bets and Predictions September 12-14
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Chelsea vs. Hull City
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
The Premier League’s fourth matchday arrives, and there are already some useful betting patterns beginning to emerge. This weekend sees entertainers Chelsea face an unbeaten promoted side, Liverpool welcome visitors still searching for their first league point, while defending champions Arsenal head to a Sunderland side who provided a tough test last term. These are the games from which my three best bets come.
Not many, if any, could have predicted Hull City’s start to the season. Unbeaten in their opening three fixtures, with seven points already on the board, and not only that, but they are the only side yet to concede a goal.
As incredible as those stats are, I am taking that run to end at Stamford Bridge, where I expect Chelsea’s attacking quality to come out on top and bring some reality to the Tigers’ return to the Premier League. Hull conceded expected goals to the value of 1.81 vs Manchester United, 1.28 at Coventry and 1.74 against Aston Villa.
Those numbers show that despite keeping three successive clean sheets, that is down to their opponents failing to take the chances presented to them rather than being restricted in making any. The one team showing a ruthless and unquenchable appetite for goalscoring at the start of the campaign is the team they face here.
Under new manager Xabi Alonso, the Londoners have scored an incredible 16 times in five matches across all competitions. Only Arsenal have prevented them from scoring at least twice while they warmed up for this clash by smashing six second-half goals past Leeds in the League Cup on Wednesday.
The Blues’ electric starts have set the tone for their three league matches, opening the scoring within four minutes in each. While Hull has already had a taste of the heat Saturday’s opponents can bring when the two teams met in the FA Cup in February, with Chelsea cruising to a 4-0 win on the road.
I am taking Chelsea on the -2 Asian Handicap, meaning they need to win by three clear goals for this bet to cash. However, a two-goal margin would lead to a full refund of our stake. The key for this bet is Chelsea’s ability to turn constant pressure into multiple goals, with a desire to keep scoring and not just settle for a low-margin victory.
Hull’s defensive record is so far excellent, but that ends here.
EPL Best Bet: Chelsea vs Hull City — Chelsea -2 Asian Handicap at +100.
Liverpool vs. Fulham
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
On to my favorite bet in the goals market this weekend, and unusually for me, it is an Over selection. Even more so when that line is 3.25, meaning we need four goals to cash the ticket, but Liverpool’s early matches have provided the type of game state to make these kinds of lines attackable.
Andoni Iraola is a manager I greatly admire, and his new team has scored two goals in each of their first four fixtures. Their opening two league games against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest both finished 2-2 before two goals inside the opening 10 minutes were the extent of the scoring in the win at Ipswich. They recorded a come-from-behind 2-1 victory against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday.
After suffering a terrible injury-hit debut season on Merseyside, Alexander Isak scored both those goals at Portman Road and now has three league goals in the new campaign, matching his total tally last term. He will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing a Fulham side that have conceded the second-highest expected goals against and actually conceded seven in their opening three fixtures.
New Cottagers manager Álvaro Arbeloa seems wedded to an attacking style that makes his side very open, and that is usually a recipe for disaster when visiting Anfield. Of the 40 shots they have faced, 29 of them have come from inside the box, meaning they are of higher quality, and that is illustrated by no team conceding more than their 14 big chances.
The great thing for this bet is that at the other end things are working well, with eight goals scored in four fixtures across all competitions a healthy return. Overs bettors were let down by Ipswich’s inadequacies in front of goal as much as anything, and I don’t see that being an issue with Fulham.
Furthermore, there is a nice history of goals in meetings between these two sides, who in recent years have always been attractive to watch regardless of manager and player change. Across the last three seasons, there have been 26 goals shared at an average of 4.33 per game, with Liverpool scoring 15 to Fulham’s 11 and only one clean sheet kept.
Five of those six games saw this bet cash, and I think the -110 on offer here is value for that run to be extended on Saturday.
EPL Best Bet: Liverpool vs Fulham — Over 3.25 Goals at -110.
Sunderland vs. Arsenal
Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Arsenal win to nil cashed for us in the opening two weeks of the season. Fortunately, winning bets never gets boring because I’m back with the same bet again.
Instead of taking on a large handicap, backing the champions to win while the best defense in European (possibly World) soccer keeps the home side off the scoresheet is the best angle of attack. That boosts a Moneyline price of -200 to a very attractive plus money play.
Including the 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the Community Shield season curtain raiser, the Gunners have won all five of their fixtures this term. In the Premier League they beat Coventry 3-0 and Aston Villa 1-0, while on Wednesday they opened their Champions League campaign with a 1-0 win at Napoli. Chelsea is the only side to score against them in defeat, but that is no big surprise given the firepower they have as outlined above.
Whereas other sides rely on opponents to miss chances, the brilliance of Arsenal’s team defense is they don’t even allow opportunities. Mikel Arteta’s side have an expected goals conceded total of just 0.93, comfortably the meanest in the Premier League, with Manchester City next best with 2.68. Sunderland are not a prolific side, failing to score more than one in any of their four fixtures to date.
The Black Cats shocked the champions here last season in an entertaining 2-2 tie, but when the teams met again in February, normal service resumed. Arsenal ran out comfortable 3-0 winners and restricted Sunderland to just five attempts at goal.
There is no pressure on the champions to entertain when playing on the road, as we saw with their win at Aston Villa where they had only seven shots. They are happy to play patiently, keeping things tight at the back before eventually grinding their opponents down.
Of Arsenal’s last 10 Premier League wins, eight have come “to nil” so the +125 available here represents fantastic value.
EPL Best Bet: Sunderland vs. Arsenal — Arsenal to Win to Nil at +125.
