MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, September 11.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez has struggled this season, posting a 4.17 ERA and a career-low 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings with 3.3 walks per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Mason Adams is making only his fourth career start, posting a 3.95 ERA, but a much higher 5.73 fielding independent. He has four home runs and six walks allowed across 13 2/3 total innings. Adams is supported by a lineup that is seventh in the league in scoring with 4.7 runs per game, but also 26th in bullpen ERA at 4.78.
Pick: Rockies vs. Tigers Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.9
7:07 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer has a 6.03 ERA with 1.9 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings allowed. He is pitching significantly better than that right now, with three runs or fewer allowed in seven of his past eight starts. Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has pitched to a lot of contact this season. He has a 4.96 ERA with 6.4 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings. His home ERA is 3.53 compared to 6.43 on the road, with nearly 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -139
7:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Astros officially have Miguel Ullola listed as their starting pitcher, but he is expected to be an opener for struggling rookie pitcher Ethan Pecko. In four starts, Pecko has posted a 5.19 ERA and a higher 6.71 fielding independent, with 5.7 strikeouts and 2.1 home runs per nine innings allowed. Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has been consistent all season with a 2.88 ERA, with 0.8 home runs and 1.6 walks per nine innings. He faces an Astros lineup that is sixth in road scoring with over 4.7 runs per game. The Rays are 10th in scoring with 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: Astros vs. Rays Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
The Royals have been a completely different team at home versus on the road. They have a 39-36 record at home with over 4.8 runs per game compared to a 26-46 road record with a league-low 3.6 runs per game. The Royals give Seth Lugo the start. Lugo owns a 5.04 ERA with only one home run and 2.9 walks per nine innings, but that ERA goes to 6.19 on the road, with over 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Red Sox lineup that leads the league in scoring since the All-Star Break with nearly 5.2 runs per game. Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray has a 2.69 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 +110
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -101
7:45 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Dustin May owns a 4.69 ERA with a 3.51 fielding independent. He’s getting 8.6 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings, but has struggled recently with a 6.17 ERA in his six starts since being traded from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Brewers. Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has a 4.43 ERA and 4.73 fielding independent with 7.1 homers and 4.1 walks per nine innings. Abbott faces a Brewers offense that is fourth in the league in scoring with nearly five runs per game.
Pick: Reds vs. Brewers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.5
8:15 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore has had a brutal season. He has a 5.57 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings allowed. The Cardinals have lost each of his past seven starts, as he has a 7.72 ERA in that stretch. White Sox starting pitcher Anthony Kay owns a 4.47 ERA and 4.82 fielding independent, with 1.3 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Kay has surrendered at least four runs in each of his past three starts. He is supported by a lineup that is seventh in the league in scoring with 4.7 runs per game. The White Sox bullpen since July 1 is fourth in ERA at 3.12, while the Cardinals are 25th in this span with a 4.83.
Picks: White Sox Moneyline -110 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -123 and Total 8.9
10:15 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starting pitcher Anthony Molina has been solid in a small sample size this season with a 2.79 ERA, but his 3.52 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed is a concern. He is supported by a bullpen that is 20th in ERA at 4.25. Padres starting pitcher Robbie Ray actually began the season with the Giants before being dealt at the trade deadline, meaning this lineup has familiarity with what he throws. While Ray’s ERA is 3.39, he has a much higher 4.68 fielding independent, with 7.6 strikeouts and 4.6 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Padres vs. Giants Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.5
