Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Sunday, November 8 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 3.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Anywhere With You (3rd race)
Third Race
1. Anywhere With You
2 Free Verse
3. Play Along
ANYWHERE WITH YOU made some mistakes last out in her career debut, starting at the end of the first turn, where she tossed her head and was hard to handle for a few strides, steadying in the process. Also took her a little longer than ideal to wind up with her run, but when she did, she leveled off very nicely. Looked a sure winner 150 yards out, but A) her victorious stablemate, making her third start, found late spark, and B) AWY slightly failed to seal the deal – like a horse who needed her debut. Lively works since the race, and like her, even if FREE VERSE draws in from deep on the AE list. Free Verse dove to the inside with a good move in the KEE turf-route MSW but run down by a good-looking C Brown-trained outside-closing winner. If she gets in, post position probably looms a concern. PLAY ALONG slow into stride and was last by a long way halfway around the long Kentucky Downs turn. Came with a solid sustained run over a sprint trip that probably proves too short, and is blinkers on here with a couple relatively encouraging work videos, the one on Sept. 30 in blinkers.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Sunday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Enchantingmistress
2. Cognizant
3. Reachingforthemoon
ENCHANTINGMISTRESS took no action debuting last month in a KEE MSW sprint and ran to her odds. That said, she showed at least mildly encouraging signs, and stretching to a one-turn mile while dropping in for $75K – that could do the trick. Squeezed a bit at the start, she first got intimidated when a horse crossed in front of her about a furlong in, then appeared to really hate kickback, losing her stride rhythm and dropping back. Found life again going to 5/16 pole and finished willingly while in traffic. No work video for COGNIZANT, who hasn’t raced since June 3, when she appeared to find her niche at the CD one-turn mile trip. Solid form for this level generally speaking and expect a competitive run despite the layoff. Seems like one turn might suit REACHINGFORTHEMOON better than two, and the KD turf experiment last out is a toss. Might wind up being race’s best value.
Second Race
1. Perpetua
2. Bourbon Notes
3. Lady Pippa
PERPETUA just claimed Oct. 28 and thrown right back into action for owner/trainer S Asmussen. She has lacked speed in her two races – but might have a little more than it seems? Broke from rail last time and seemed hesitant to go forward in the very early stages. Took some doing to get home and win that – had to dive inside for final surge, and came home her last furlong in 12.70 – quite robust for the class level. Taking her to run down favored BOURBON NOTES, who gets off the rail after drawing post 1 her last two starts, and who stands a strong chance of going far better than the KEE dud. But even if she fires, this horse will struggle to fully see out even six furlongs: Note that her lone win came over 5f. LADY PIPPA would hold some appeal dropping in class if she could make the lead, which she probably can’t – still might stay on for a share – after all, finishing third just requires beating three rivals.
Fourth Race
1. Creole Chrome
2. Circle Top
3. Soldier N Diplomat
Would not call CREOLE CHROME a run-off, but he’s always been an aggressive, forward horse – so credit to him, and a good sign, that he – to some extent, at least – assented to the jockey taking a strong hold when stuck behind horses down the backstretch and around the turn. Did he pull hard enough to compromise his finish once clear? Perhaps, but the winner, running the race of his life coming back from a layoff, wasn’t coming back to him, either. Still should be fresh enough and just now getting into a racing rhythm over the sprint trips that appear to suit him best. This field isn’t crazy strong, but it’s definitely a step up from what CIRCLE TAP defeated in his last start. Also got a favorable setup in that race – but still impressed while turning in a career-best. Encouraging enough work video as barn has taken a patient approach running him back. Don’t really know who SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT is even after seven starts – but do believe the rail draw for this comeback run won’t serve him well at all. Mildly interesting that he’s been working for this comeback run over the Turfway Tapeta.
Fifth Race
1. Alliemae
2. Prank At Dawn
3. Maui Meow
ALLIEMAE didn’t set the world on fire last out while making her second start – but she still ran far better than in her debut. Well-beaten sixth but was only four lengths out of second in race won by a very wide margin. And, most of all, she showed far more speed sitting just off the pace than any of her rivals here appear to possess. Would even go so far as to say I found recent work video at least mildly appealing for a horse at this level. If she breaks, I think she makes the lead and goes all the way. PRANK AT DAWN was dead on the board in her debut, considering Brad Cox trains her and she started off in an IND MSW. Broke flat-footed and had to be hard ridden all the way just to stay in the game, but, in the end, not a terrible showing. Looked like she needed more than that 5 1/2 furlongs, and she does – but did not stay the two-turn route at all. Likely to hit a third-race peak while entered realistically at a six-furlong trip that should suit. MAUI MEOW gets the 10 pounds from the apprentice rider having a good week at CD, and showed more than enough first time out to factor here.
Sixth Race
1. Torre Eiffel
2. Bedeviled
3, Mizzou
TORRE EIFFEL did benefit from a strong, contested pace when nabbing third from Mizzou, who was part of that pace, last out at Keeneland. But that 6f trip is too short for him – this 6 1/2 suits better. Typically demanding trip two back at SAR for a horse lacking speed who breaks from the rail – actually came decently through traffic there. Owner-trainer Asmussen claimed the horse for $30K and holds firm for $50K – and I can see why. Asmussen has a second horse, BEDEVILED, who also could be live. First time racing as a gelding, and his best race came three back in a Churchill one-turn mile – the cutback will help. I get that MIZZOU ran well last time considering she was hounded through a taxing pace – but I’d want no part of this 12-race maiden as the favorite. Still has never come close to getting back to that October 2025 near miss at KEE following a long break.
Seventh Race
1. Cavalli
2. Intoloun
3. Arrival Time
CAVALLI only won by a neck last out while making his career debut in a KEE MSW – and still looked like a powerhouse at the finish to me. I see him taking a meaningful second-start step forward in his second out – to the extent I’m willing to eat a relatively short price coupled with a tough outside draw. INTOLOUN makes his turf debut – but won an IND dirt MSW last run like a turf race – slow early, fast late. The horse kicked home, too, and the trainer (who also sent out the runner-up last time) must still believe he didn’t fully apply himself since blinkers are added. Early signs point to sons and daughters of the sire Mandaloun preferring turf to dirt. ARRIVAL TIME got the second-out maiden win when rained off turf onto dirt last out at KEE -0 but that doens’t mean he’s not going to wind up better on turf. Ran like a horse who needed an out on debut at KD.
Eighth Race
1. White Tiger
2. Copp
3. Some County
WHITE TIGER stepped onto the Derby Trail earlier this year for about a split second – 9th in the Lecomte ended that. Not at all bad in the two turf races – but also not close to winning either of those MSWs. The drop down to $50K N2L seems far more realistic than negative – it’s just the level this horse needs to win again. He’s going to punch home hard running fresh in the one-turn mile. And after a very slow KEE meet, Team Cox back to their regular stream of winners this meet. COPP has made half his 10 starts on turf, and is at least as good on dirt. The layoff just doesn’t concern me much at all – might be better off fresh, and work video shows a horse who appears to be training well enough into this. STONE COUNTY away poorly, finished with good energy last out at KEE and will outrun his odds if the morning line proves accurate.
Ninth Race
1. Special Sauce
2. Sneaky Good
3. Sina
SPECIAL SAUCE has come on very, very strong since the $30K claim in March. Recent win streak includes a Churchill blowout, and I can’t see who in this group keeps her from sailing a long on a clear lead. That would leave SNEAKY GOOD the demanding task of trying to run down a sharp horse who has not taken pressure – and I don’t think she’ll be up to it. Sneaky Good in the end probably wants at least a half-furlong farther, though she did hook a sharp front-running winner last out at KEE. SINA was no match for Sneaky Good last time out, and I don’t see what would be different here.
Tenth Race
1. Great Romance
2. Just Peachy
3. Middlemist
GREAT ROMANCE is a half-sister to the capable turf sprinter Mackinac, but debuts in a two-turn mile – surely for good reason. Three KEE work videos up, and they seem to show enough to expect this horse to be live right out of the gate, especially in this field. Not expecting much of a price, however. As we know, the KEE turf course, especially in autumn, can be challenging for many horses, and the Kentucky Downs course even more so. Those are the tracks where JUST PEACHY raced since a Saratoga showing that suggests she’s “the one to beat” in this spot. MIDDLEMIST ran … fine in her debut. Not sure that was a very strong KD one-mile MSW, however, and doubt she has quite what will be required to win from post 12.
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