NFL Week 9 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
There always seems to be at least one week every NFL season in which the public hammers the sportsbooks big-time. It is almost always sometime around midseason when fans, sharps, and oddsmakers alike have formed definitive opinions about the league’s 32 teams. Unfortunately, it is impossible to project exactly when it is coming. That said, for two of the last three seasons, it has come in Week 8. This past Sunday in the NFL, according to the DraftKings betting splits, the “public” was 9-3-1 ATS on their wagers, where the Number of Bets on given sides were stacked in a majority to one team or the other. At the same time, the betting handle majorities, supposedly more “sharp,” were 5-8 ATS.
This phenomenon always hits me hard personally, at least in my betting account and in my NFL Best Bets column, as last week I hit on just one of eight games, falling to 37-32-2 ATS for the season. What makes it worse is that at different points throughout the day I was thinking 4-4 was the worst I’d be. Hopefully that will be the worst of it, but in full transparency, I do have to share that two years ago, I was hit by the worst 2-week span in my NFL betting career, 1-8 in back-to-back weeks. Not coincidentally, those were Weeks 8 & 9. Not to scare anyone off, but it does happen. The good news from 2024 is that I did respond by going 57% the rest of the way and finished at 53.5% for the season. Enough looking back, though; let’s dig right into the Week 9 slate. After pouring through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Reports, take a look at what I’ve come up with for the NFL weekend.
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (+10)
Just a week ago, Baltimore was considered one of the better teams in the league, so much so that it was just a 3-point underdog on the road versus the AFC’s Super Bowl favorite. Dealing with multiple quarterback injuries now, apparently we are supposed to believe that the Ravens are downgraded by nearly two TDs in a single week. I have literally never seen anything like this, and I can assure you that the other 52 players not affected by the QB injuries will be highly motivated by this line. In fact, with the public having won big last week overall, and now showing 67% handle and 72% bets backing on the Jaguars, it feels like they are being set up.
What is the definition of a “big public favorite” that savvy bettors should be willing to fade? Well, over the last three years, when a “supermajority” handle of 77% or higher got behind an NFL favored team of 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 16-28 ATS (36.4%) for -14.7 units and a ROI of -33.4%. As a franchise, the Ravens are well known for thriving against the league’s best: Baltimore is 15-15 SU and 20-9 ATS vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7% since 2020. They are also 23-10 ATS as an underdog since 2018.
Of course, you have to consider the Thursday night and rookie QB data too. On that note, there has been an advantage to later-season TNF scheduling for hosts: TNF home teams in Weeks 9 & later are 49-31 SU and 46-31-3 ATS (59.7%). As far as Baltimore QB Fagnano is concerned, rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 23-24 SU and 30-15-2 ATS (66.7%) in their last 47 such tries. Add to that the fact that home teams are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 non-neutral meetings between Jacksonville and Baltimore, and I think we have the nice makings for a realistic home dog.
NFL Best Bet: Yes, I’m backing Baltimore +10 on Thursday night
Sunday, November 8, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (+3)
For as much as the Bengals kept scoring and scoring and scoring on Tennessee last week, the overall effort was sloppy as QB Joe Burrow threw three interceptions, and the team needed overtime to turn back the Titans as heavy favorites. After watching that one, it became clear that this team isn’t there yet.
Of course, you could argue that the Falcons aren’t anywhere close either, especially after being shut out by Tampa Bay. However, I’m pretty sure anyone who watched that game couldn’t have downgraded the Falcons all that much as the weather made it virtually impossible to throw the ball, thus limiting their advantage in that area. I would expect a much different offense in Spain on Sunday morning. Historically, teams that get shut out or perform very poorly offensively are great bets the next time out, and the prior teams probably didn’t have to deal with what head coach Kevin Stefanski’s team did last week.
Take a look at these top angles: 1) NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 24-43 SU but 44-23 ATS (65.7%) over the last decade-plus. 2) Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce back teams in the next outing, going 32-38 SU but 44-24-2 ATS (64.7%) since 2012. Cincinnati is also getting heavy betting action at DK, and they refuse to move the line off of 3.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll go with Atlanta +3 versus Cincinnati in Madrid
Cleveland Browns (+3) at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans fans are hoping that a week off can help reset a season that appeared most promising at the outset. The team just hasn’t performed as figured, although key injuries have limited what was supposed to be a dynamic offense. That said, Saints can only stand on what their record is, and unfortunately that is 2-5 with a bad scoring margin: Teams playing with a point differential of 7 points or worse on the season as home favorites are 63-63-1 SU and 49-75-3 ATS (39.5%) since 2016. Also, having a minimum of four games under their belt for the season, favorites sporting a win percentage that is at least 25% worse than their opponent have a 37-43-2 SU and 29-51-2 ATS (36.3%) record since the start of the 2015 season.
In most cases, you’d think the bye week would help, but New Orleans has lost seven straight post-bye week games ATS, and we know to play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 27-27 SU and 33-19-2 ATS since 2015, 63.5%). On the side of the Browns are a couple of rookie coaching trends: 89-72-2 ATS (55.3%) as small dogs of +1 to +3, and 107-95-8 ATS in non-conference games. Plus, the recent head-to-head series shows underdogs are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in the Browns-Saints last nine matchups.
I’ll back Cleveland +3 in New Orleans to at least threaten an upset
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)
The Giants are sitting pretty in the NFC East right now, yet don’t feel satisfied enough to stay put, as rumors are suggesting they have been very active in seeking trade deals this week. It sounds like even QB Jaxson Dart’s name has come up. To me, this is the kind of thing that has the potential to seriously disrupt the positive mojo, as just two months ago, Dart was being looked at as the cornerstone of the franchise’s future, and just two games into the JJ McCarthy era, McCarthy is now the best thing since sliced bread. Well, going to Philadelphia is going to be a big test for McCarthy and everyone else, as the fierce nature of this rivalry will be on full display with the Eagles’ backs against the wall.
For what it’s worth, home teams are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five of the Giants-Eagles NFC East rivalry. Philly’s defense played pretty well last week against Washington, and now with the QB move to Joe Milton, I think there is a much bigger upside to what we could see, particularly as a home dog: 1) Teams that scored poorly (<= 10 points) in their previous game loss have been phenomenal as divisional underdogs in the next contest, going 38-68 SU but 67-36-3 ATS (65%) since the start of the 2020 season. If you saw the VSiN NFL Analytics Report this week, you might have been very confused about the pre-bye/post-bye situation for this game, as the pre-bye systems favor Philly, the post-bye systems favor New York. Thus, I am leaving those particular angles out here.
However, I do like these team tendencies: The Eagles are an impressive 14-4 SU and ATS in pre-bye week games since 2008. Outright winners have won 25 straight Philly pre-bye week games ATS. And Philadelphia is on a 7-0 SU and ATS streak in pre-bye week games vs. divisional foes, outscoring them 26.6-14 on average. I personally believe that no matter the apparent state of these teams currently, Philly will not let this one be easy for the rival Giants.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll back Philadelphia +3.5 at home to give the Giants all they can handle
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
What do you do as a bettor with a team that just wins despite not looking worthy of its stellar record? Quite honestly, after getting snake-bitten by Denver again last week versus Kansas City, I told myself that I am not going against the Broncos, regardless of their mediocre point and yardage numbers, until it’s proven they can’t overcome them.
Look at the system for this week that HC Sean Payton’s team qualifies for: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 68-17 SU and 52-31-2 ATS (62.7%) in the next game when favored. The old Raiders saying was “Just Win Baby” and the Broncos have adopted it. Denver also has a chance to conclude its first half of the season with a ton of positive momentum, as it heads into the bye week after this: Denver is 11-3 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 pre-bye week games overall, and 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 pre-bye week road games.
There is also a nice system in place for this week because of the upcoming bye: Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 33-8-1 SU and 28-13-1 ATS since ’09, 68.3%). The Panthers are off a TNF loss at Green Bay, in which they struggled up front to keep the Packers’ front four at bay. That could be a big problem vs. Denver’s pass rush. If you need more, consider that Denver is 5-1 SU and ATS vs. Carolina since 2012.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll back Denver -2.5 to stay hot at Carolina
Las Vegas Raiders (+10) at San Francisco 49ers
If I had to point to one particular system on this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report that stood out most to me, it would have to be this one: In the later months of the regular season (November-January), higher-scoring (>= 26 PPG) road underdogs facing a solid defense (<= 20.5 PAPG) have gone 25-25 SU but 36-13-1 ATS (73.5%) since 2018. That is a nearly 75% point spread angle that indicates good offensive teams make for solid road dogs later in the season. The Raiders have been a good offensive team, and Kirk Cousins has a rich history of being a QB you don’t want to face if he is in catch-up or back-door mode.
Of course, San Francisco comes off its bye week, which followed its first loss of the season. The bye doesn’t tend to help the league’s best teams, as momentum can get lost in the change of routine: Play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 19-11-1 ATS since 2014, 63.3%). There is also this post-bye week angle to consider: Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 27-27 SU and 33-19-2 ATS since 2015, 63.5%).
The 49ers are also dealing with a lot of key offensive injuries, which will, of course, hinder the ability to separate from the Raiders. Of interest too, San Francisco’s QB Brock Purdy is just 19-9 SU but 13-15 ATS in his last 28 vs. teams with lesser records. I’m not surprised to see 74% of the handle at DK on the Raiders here. Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 74-53 ATS (58.3%) record for +15.7 units and an ROI of +12.4%!
NFL Best Bet: Las Vegas +10 should make a game of this in San Francisco
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5)
Games like the Texans’ loss at home to the Giants are the result of overreactions from oddsmakers, as those behind the counter gave New York plenty of motivation. I still feel like the so-called experts are giving far too much credit to Houston, as 2-5 teams are rarely seen as -5.5-point road favorites. The fact that head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team comes out of a bye week here too does not make it any easier for them: Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 26-19 SU and 28-17 ATS since ’19, 62.2%). And, the Texans are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven post-bye week road games.
How bad are the Chargers? Are they worthy of anyone’s money right now? Well, from a historical standpoint, where this line is set indicates yes: Oddsmakers set a pretty good path for whether or not really bad teams have a chance to compete, as those with -10 PPG differentials are 117-122 SU but 143-92-4 ATS (60.9%) so long as they are not a TD underdog or bigger (+7 or more) in the last 239 games. That is a very big NFL sample size for a system and it returns consistently.
On top of that, in games between two teams with 35% or less winning percentages, and totals <= 41, underdogs are 36-32 SU and 45-22-1 ATS (67.2%) since the start of the ’15 season. This has also been a very competitive series, with two recent playoff meetings mixed in: Underdogs are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five of the Texans-Chargers set. The DK betting splits show 82% handle/67% bets on the road favorite, never a good sign.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll give the Chargers +5.5 one more try before I abandon ship if they go down
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)
At the risk of slandering the NFL’s reigning Super Bowl champion QB, are the Seahawks really worse off with Drew Luck than they are with Sam Darnold with the way Darnold has been playing lately? When this line was sitting at -12.5, I was telling myself it was one of the worst lines of the season. Now, with Darnold expected to miss, it seems much more reasonable for Seattle to win and take care of business on the point spread. Let’s not forget, Lock was very sharp in his brief stint earlier in the season when Darnold was out. In fact, in his only start, the Seahawks routed this same Arizona team 31-7. He is averaging a lofty 8.8 yards per pass attempt and has a 4/0 TD/Int ratio. Of course, Arizona does seem to be coming around under head coach Mike LaFleur, which makes it puzzling as to why oddsmakers still keep shading them on a weekly basis.
Perhaps they are remembering that Seattle is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games with divisional foe Arizona. Or that Arizona is 15-25 ATS (37.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020. Even worse, Arizona is on a 4-20 SU and 7-17 ATS skid in its last 24 same-season rematch games. Looking back at that 31-7 decision earlier, teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 93-30 SU and 75-48 ATS (61%) in the rematch.
Getting back to LaFleur, there are two interesting rookie head coach angles in play for this one: First, after wins, they are 78-92-6 ATS (45.9%) since 2020. Second, when taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 31-47 SU and 35-43 ATS (44.9%) in the follow-up contest since 2016. Don’t worry that most of the bets and money are on Arizona either, since in NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 228-278 ATS (45.1%) for -77.8 units.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll lay the -8.5 with Seattle to bounce back behind Drew Lock
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-6)
As hard as it is to admit as a Packers’ backer, Chicago manhandled Seattle on Monday night and is looking more and more legit each game. QB Caleb Williams seems dialed in, and the recent upgrades to the defense are really paying off. Next up is a Sunday night date with Tampa Bay, and you can be sure that the Bears will be looking to show off in front of a national TV audience.
All three SNF angles on the Analytics Report point to Chicago here: 1) Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 64-46-2 ATS (58.2%) in their last 112. 2) Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 20-27-1 SU and 22-25-1 ATS (46.8%) in their last 48, but those coming off a win are on a current 35-12 SU and 27-20 ATS (57.4%) surge. 3) The best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 21-29-1 SU and 21-30 ATS (41.2%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019. Tampa qualifies as the fade on that last one. A lot of the reason the Bucs reach that qualifier is because of last week’s shutout of Atlanta. Well, teams off of a home shutout win have actually been bad in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 20-21 SU and 17-23-1 ATS (42.5%) in their last 41 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
The Bucs are also just 12-23 SU and 10-25 ATS in their last 35 primetime games, and from a head-to-head standpoint, home teams have won and covered the last six games between Tampa Bay and Chicago. Finally, the fact that the Bears are heading into their bye week next is not lost on me, and we know to play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 80-41-2 ATS since 2010, 66.1%).
NFL Best Bet: I’ll be backing Chicago -6 on Sunday night
For more NFL Week 9 best bets, visit the NFL Week 9 Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
