Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz meet in the Rolex Paris Masters final on Sunday, November 8, with the last 1000-level title of the year on the line in France. Below, we break down the key matchup factors and deliver our prediction and best bet for the final.
Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Shelton beat Alcaraz in a thrilling five-set match at the US Open, snapping a three-match losing streak against the Spaniard. But that was Alcaraz’s first match back from a wrist injury that had sidelined him for months. He wasn’t yet playing his best tennis, and it was painfully obvious.
Alcaraz is back now. The seven-time Grand Slam champion posted a TennisViz Performance Rating of 9.00 in Vienna, and he’s playing right around that level in Paris. Why does that matter? That’s the same range he was in before the injury.
This isn’t exactly a hot take, but the only player who can consistently beat peak Alcaraz is Jannik Sinner. The Italian has elite ball-striking ability and very few holes for opponents to exploit. Shelton has the ball-striking ability, but he also has plenty of weaknesses.
Shelton’s poor decision-making and leaky backhand tend to hold him back against elite competition, and I don’t see this match playing out any differently.
Alcaraz has had moments this week when he has lost focus, and Shelton will be hoping to catch the Spaniard slipping on Sunday. The problem for Shelton is that he beat Alcaraz just a few months ago, on one of the sport’s biggest stages. Alcaraz is going to want to get his lick back, and I’d expect laser focus from the 23-year-old.
Of course, finding a way to bet this match is difficult. The moneyline is extremely pricey, so that isn’t much of an option. I also wouldn’t lay the -1.5 sets, as Shelton’s serve is good enough for him to steal a set — even against an in-form Alcaraz. That leaves laying 3.5 games with Alcaraz as the only option I’d consider.
Fortunately, some of you probably read my pre-tournament futures story, where I gave out Alcaraz to win the tournament at +187 (risking 2 units). If you did, you’re in the same position I am: We don’t need to touch this match.
LEAN: Alcaraz -3.5 Games (+100)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
