On Saturday, September 12th, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will meet in the 2026 US Open finals. Sabalenka will be going for her third consecutive US Open title here, while Rybakina will be looking to win her second major of the 2026 season. So, there’s a lot on the line in this match, which genuinely feels like it can go either way. There’s a lot to dissect when looking into this matchup, and we’re going to do it in our Sabalenka vs. Rybakina betting preview.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Friday, September 11th at 1:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -145, Rybakina +119
Spread: Sabalenka -1.5 Games (-120), Rybakina +1.5 Games (-120)
Total: Over 22.5 Games (-140), Under 22.5 Games (-105)
How To Watch Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina
Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York
When: Saturday, September 12th
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Predictions
We have seen some lousy performance from Sabalenka this season, but there’s nobody quite like her when she’s on. Well, she has been on since arriving in New York, where she’s looking to three-peat as US Open champion.
Sabalenka was pushed to the brink by Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, but she showed up in the key moments of that match. Towards the end of the third set in that one, Sabalenka was brave with her ball-striking. That ended up being the difference. Then, Sabalenka carried her momentum into a meeting with Jessica Pegula in the semifinals. In the opening set of that match, Pegula brought her best level. But Pegula’s A-game isn’t nearly as good as Sabalenka’s A-game. The Belarusian took the first set by out-classing Pegula, then she pummeled the American in the second set.
Rybakina has also been tremendous in Flushing, with her wins over Naomi Osaka, Qinwen Zheng, and Coco Gauff all requiring something different. However, I noted before that there’s nobody like an in-form Sabalenka, and that includes Rybakina.
Rybakina did get the best of Sabalenka at the Australian Open, and her serve gives her a good chance in these matches. But that was also a match in which Sabalenka blew a 3-0 lead in the third set. She really should have won that one, and it does seem like she has put her untimely collapses in the rearview mirror. The Sabalenka we have seen throughout the 2026 season wouldn’t have come through in the Noskova match, and there’s a good chance she would have dropped the first set against Pegula. Now, Sabalenka seems to have her mental game back, and a good argument can be made that her experience winning this tournament — and playing in several finals — will have her more prepared for this match.
As far as the tennis goes, we know Rybakina is one of the best servers on the planet. But you know what? Over the last 52 weeks, Sabalenka’s hard-court hold rate of 83.3% is slightly higher than Rybakina’s 83.0%. That’s significant in this matchup, as Sabalenka is a little more powerful, plays with more variety, and has the superior overall movement. Sabalenka essentially has advantages across the board. So, while Rybakina is absolutely incredible, she’s in the same position as everyone else facing Sabalenka. She needs to hope and pray that the Belarusian will be off her game.
I’ll also note that Sabalenka really beat up on Rybakina the last time they played, earning a 6-4, 6-3 win in the Miami Open semifinals. That gives her two straight wins over Rybakina, and the lopsided win in South Beach can’t be ignored considering the weather in New York right now.
Bet: Sabalenka ML (-135)
