Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Wednesday, November 4 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Saltwater Soul (6th Race)
Sixth Race
1. Saltwater Soul
2. Grantchester
3. Steve Wood
Was pretty high on SALTWATER SOUL when he debuted Oct. 2 at KEE – kept waiting for him to make a run, based on what we’d seen from SAR workout video, and he finally kind of did – on the gallop out. Just finished evenly, and when he went out like that – in front, eventually, it looked like on a poorly presented gallop-out – it suggested that the apparent talent from those works might require a route of ground to be expressed. Also liked GRANTCHESTER going turf to dirt and sprint to route in his recent start at KEE. Poor trip was partly of his own making, which is why the addition of blinkers here is worth noting. Fleetfoot Mac sure looked like an above-par KEE MSW winner, and STEVE WOOD was the one nearest him at the finish. As for the stretchout, the dam was a stakes-class route horse.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Wednesday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Issachar
2. Divine Truth
3. Braums Run
ISSACHAR claimed out of $40K debut win at KEE April. Tried a turf stakes over yielding ground at Ellis first off claim and got nothing at 66-1. Considerably better when back to dirt over a sloppy CD surface last out, but also met stronger foes there than he’ll encounter this time. Like the outside draw in a short field. No recent workout video but since the last start he’s put up fast ones. DIVINE TRUTH did run a visually impressive race for the class level winning last time at KEE, but question whether he does it again. Barn 10% with last-start winners. BRAUMS RUN got the “left lead” short comment and indeed looked awkward in the homestretch of his last start, a race that looks better on paper than replay.
Second Race
1. Tiffany Twist
2. Thea
3. Freak City
TIFFANY TWIST claimed out of his last by trainer J Sharp, who always seems to be “hot” in Kentucky, and immediately stretched out from sprints to two turns – like new connections had a plan when they haltered the filly. 17-race losing streak compiled almost entirely of races against better horses than these. Young apprentice named means she gets 10 pounds from all her opponents – that’s real weight! THEA‘s been a successful claim for current connnections, but after being eased two back and failing to finish off a good trip as the favorite last out at Parx, she’s dropped from starter races to $20K claiming – which makes her tough to trust at the expected low price, especially as a pace player in a race with other speed. FREAK CITY needs a hot tempo to be effective since she can’t make her own race – and might get it. Hard to see her actually winning, however.
Third Race
1. Stakeholder
2. Working for Glory
3. Southern Whisper
Some kind of hole occasioned the steep drop for STAKEHOLDER last out from five MSWs into a $20K maiden-claimer. Didn’t show much, either, but that was a sprint and he’s a route horse, isn’t he? Three works after claimed from last and gets a $10K claiming-price hike that suggests new connections don’t mind what they’ve seen. More of a guess than a strong choice in a race that I don’t really understand. One thing I do expect to see: a contested pace at least solid and perhaps strong, which is what pace-less closer WORKING FOR GLORY needs. Far outside post and tough start did him no favors last out. All three dirt starts on either sloppy or good surfaces – fast better? SOUTHERN WHISPER was basically done in by a poor start last out at KEE, continuing on through the stretch and past the wire like a horse in a sprint race who might prefer routing. Do expect a competitive performance – don’t want to take anything as short as the published price, 5-2.
Fourth Race
1. Tanya’s Momentum
2. Miss Elle
3. Belle Ofthe Dance
TANYA’S MOMENTUM showed enough in her debut at GP that I took her to win second out at Churchill – which she did, quite well, easily beating 11 in a $100K maiden-claimer. Just now runs back after that race, and if she approaches the pre-layoff form, she probably wins. Five-pound apprentice named – she’ll try to go wire to wire. Can MISS ELLE get back to the CD and KEE form she showed about a year ago? Post-layoff comeback run two back suggested she might and might have run back too soon last out at KEE, triggering regression. BELLE OFTHE DANCE needed a couple starts, it looks like, to fully recover from a peak performance in July, and doubt she runs right back to another peak she hit last out, Oct. 2 at KEE.
Fifth Race
1. She’s Willin
2. Jackie’s Player
3. Country Music Gal
Very, very weak opinion here. Didn’t like any of the race replays nor any of the available workout video – so taking a flyer with SHE’S WILLIN, who has turned in fast drills at the TTC (no video) and figures to be ignored in the wagering. Third-time starter JACKIE’S PLAYER exits a turf race – didn’t work – and faced considerably better competition than this in her decent dirt debut. But as the favorite? Couldn’t support her. COUNTRY MUSIC GAL also no work video for her debut, but if nothing else, the breeze pattern looks good.
Seventh Race
1. Mayfield
2. Ocelli
3. Kelz
Assume MAYFIELD was showing more on the dirt in morning training than he did in two races – or he’d have gotten the switch to grass before now. 100-percent bred top and bottom for turf and great chance he moves up on the surface switch. OCELLI, the 11-race maiden with $850K in earnings, hails from a turf-y family (Scat Daddy mare!) and bears many hallmarks of a horse who could go better on grass than dirt – but that’s just a guess, and his price is going to be unappealing, finally dropping back into maiden competition. KELZ caught somewhat wide last time, and if his dirt form is a fair guide, he has one more level to find right now on turf.
Eighth Race
1. Transatlantic
2. Freaks Go
3. Tearin’ up My Heart
See only one semi-appealing candidate, TRANSATLANTIC, with whom to oppose heavily favored FREAKS GO. Always looking to beat short-priced chalk, and a horse who’s 1-9, always loses ground from stretch call to wire, and might not be “as good” as her last two – have to find an alternative. Translatlantic already in range, just with established form but also is lightly raced, gets a $20K boost off the $30K last-start claim, and has a race, her debut, suggesting she can do better than the last couple. TEARIN’UP MY HEART has been very in and out, but at her best throws up races that can factor here. She’s a price, and the barn was surging at CD earlier this autumn.
Ninth Race
1. Clairita
2. Resist
3. Being Myself
Round and round and round I went in this N2X / $80K clm dirt-route f & m allowance. Not pleased to have settled on short-priced CLAIRITA, but I do think she prefers a full-stretch 1 1/16 miles at CD to the short stretch configuration at KEE, where she still ran solidly last out. No work video for RESIST, who, for a 56-1 shot breaking from a wide post, performed creditably when last seen racing in the Kentucky Oaks. Speed figures might outpace the substance of her performances last winter and spring – but seems to be something there, good layoff barn, and race could shape her way. BEING MYSELF finished all right going a one-turn CD mile when last seen – but not with enough verve to convince me she’s going to better suit this two-turn route – not when we’ve already seen her in such races. Expect some improvement second back from a break – not quite enough?
Tenth Race
1. Belzoni
2. Better Quality
3. Mr. Popover
BELZONI and Damavand went head to head through the short stretch of a KEE 1 1/16-mile MSW while finishing six lengths clear of third. Damavand got thrown into the BC Juvenile – Belzoni gets a modest-seeming group of maidens. Two previous races validate the most recent one – tough to beat here, presumably at a price well below the morning line. BETTER QUALITY a useful and encouraging enough sprint debut – and ran too bad last out at the one-turn mile to do much more than put a line through the race. Right back into the fray and worth longshot consideration here. MR. POPOVER might have some of the longest legs – at least proportional to his barrel – I’ve ever seen on a Thoroughbred. Lone work video showed lead-change struggle – guess he’s talented but will need the debut?
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