The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 11/4. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 54-18 SU and 48-22-2 ATS (68.6%) in their last 72 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-3.5 at BKN)

* MEMPHIS is on an 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS run in games versus Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-6.5 vs IND)

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 54-83-1 ATS (39.4%) in their last 138 divisional contests.
System Match (FADE ATS): SACRAMENTO (+12.5 vs LAL)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* DETROIT is 22-13 Under the total (62.9%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-DET (o/u at 219.5)

* WASHINGTON is 71-175 SU and 102-138 ATS playing with One Day Rest since November 2021
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+3.5 vs ATL)

* NBA teams playing in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario are 167-247 SU and 188-217 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd Straight Home game over the last four seasons
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6.5 at MEM)

* HOUSTON is 66-109 SU and 72-100 ATS playing in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario since February 2021
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-7.5 vs MIN)

* UTAH is 113-81 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-NOP (o/u at 232.5)

* CLEVELAND is just 28-34 SU and 19-43 ATS (30.6%) vs. teams that have winning records, since the start of last season
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 184-101 SU and 163-114 ATS playing in the popular OneDayRest scenario since October 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 vs CLE)

* DALLAS is just 4-22 SU and 9-17 ATS (34.6%) vs. winning teams on the road, since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): DALLAS (+12.5 at SAS)

* NEW YORK is just 10-10 SU and 4-16 ATS (20%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
* NEW YORK is 154-83 SU and 132-101 ATS playing with One Day Rest since Nov ’22
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW YORK (-12.5 vs CHI)

* PHOENIX is 10-12 SU but 16-6 ATS (72.7%) vs. teams currently scoring >118 PPG, since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+3.5 vs POR)

* PORTLAND is 25-16 Over the total (61%) in their last 41 games as a favorite
* NBA teams playing at home in the One Day Rest game scenario are 90-51 Under the total hosting teams in a 4th in 10+ Days game over the last four seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in POR-PHX (o/u at 227.5)

* LA LAKERS are 103-64 SU and 98-68 ATS playing with One Day Rest since November 2023
* SACRAMENTO is 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS (21.4%) at home versus teams currently winning >60% of their games, since the start of last season
Trends Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-12.5 at SAC)

* MIAMI is 17-8 SU and ATS (68%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-5.5 at LAC)

* MIAMI is 78-40 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-LAC (o/u at 233.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) ATLANTA at (502) WASHINGTON
* ATLANTA is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six matchups with divisional foe Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-3.5 at WSH)

(503) PHILADELPHIA at (504) DETROIT
* DETROIT is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games versus Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 vs PHI)

(505) MILWAUKEE at (506) BOSTON
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Bucks-Celtics set, but did lose last time
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-BOS (o/u at 223.5)

(507) CHARLOTTE at (508) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 6-1 in the Hornets-Nets set since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-BKN (o/u at 213.5)

(509) CHICAGO at (510) NEW YORK
* Home teams have covered the last five meetings between Chicago and New York
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-12.5 vs CHI)

(511) CLEVELAND at (512) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight matchups with non-conference opponent Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 vs CLE)

(513) UTAH at (514) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 7-1 in the Jazz-Pelicans set since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-NOP (o/u at 232.5)

(515) INDIANA at (516) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is on an 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS run in games versus Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-6.5 vs IND)

(517) MINNESOTA at (518) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Twolves-Rockets series at the Toyota Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-HOU (o/u at 220.5)

(519) PORTLAND at (520) PHOENIX
* PORTLAND is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 matchups with Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-3.5 at PHX)

(521) TORONTO at (522) DENVER
* Underdogs are 4-6 SU but 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the Raptors-Nuggets non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+4.5 at DEN)

(523) DALLAS at (524) SAN ANTONIO
* SAN ANTONIO has won and covered their last six meetings with in-state rival Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 vs DAL)

(525) LA LAKERS at (526) SACRAMENTO
* LA LAKERS are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games with divisional foe Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-12.5 at SAC)

(527) MIAMI at (528) LA CLIPPERS
* Over the total has converted in three straight matchups between Miami and LA Clippers
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-LAC (o/u at 233.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 200-80 SU and 159-120-1 ATS (57%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-7.5 vs MIN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 145-118 SU and 148-112-3 ATS (56.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-3.5 at BKN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 104-44 SU and 90-57-1 ATS (61.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (-3.5 at BKN), MIAMI (-5.5 at LAC)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 147-128 (53.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-234 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 371-305 (54.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-BOS (spread BOS -11.5, o/u at 223.5), CHI-NYK (spread NYK -12.5, o/u at 233.5)
UNDER – DAL-SAS (spread SAS -12.5, o/u at 226.5), LAL-SAC (spread LAL -12.5, o/u at 234.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 61-18 SU and 47-32 ATS (59.5%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 vs DAL)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 205-118 SU but 149-170-4 ATS (46.7%) in the follow-up contest over the last eight seasons. Included among this is a 121-152 ATS (44.3%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS (-6.5 vs IND), MIAMI (-5.5 at LAC)

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 112-72 SU and 98-84-2 ATS (53.8%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-12.5 at SAC)

Rout games can be significant
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 54-83-1 ATS (39.4%) in their last 138 divisional contests.
System Match (FADE ATS): SACRAMENTO (+12.5 vs LAL)

NBA teams coming off any game in which they lost on the point spread by 25 points or more have gone 164-54 SU and 123-93-2 ATS (56.9%) when a pick ‘em or favorite in their follow-up contest since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): CHARLOTTE (-3.5 at BKN)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 431-368 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-DEN (o/u at 231.5), DAL-SAS (o/u at 226.5), MIA-LAC (o/u at 233.5)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that came off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 205-181 SU and 212-164-10 ATS (56.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-3.5 at WSH)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 194-133 SU and 182-138-7 ATS (56.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 vs DAL)

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 111-80 SU and 113-77-1 ATS (59.5%) in their last 191 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-3.5 at BKN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 166-29 SU but 86-106-3 ATS (44.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 vs DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams that have lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 54-18 SU and 48-22-2 ATS (68.6%) in their last 72 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-3.5 at BKN)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 242-208 ATS (53.8%) over the last four seasons, good for +13.2 units of profit and an ROI of 2.9%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 984-900 ATS (52.2%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -6.0 units and an ROI of -0.3%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, CLEVELAND, PORTLAND, DALLAS, LA LAKERS, MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group produced a 167-143 ATS record (53.9%).  This has netted +9.7 units and an ROI of 3.1%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 575-524 ATS record (52.3%), going for -1.40 unit of profit and an ROI of -0.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, DENVER, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets, when 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 117-156 ATS (42.9%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -54.6 units for an ROI of -20%.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 556-487 ATS (53.3%). This simple angle has produced +20.3 units of profit and an ROI of +1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, CLEVELAND, DENVER, MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 685-605 ATS record, good for 53.1%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +19.5 units of profit and an ROI of +1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, CHARLOTTE, NEW YORK, NEW ORLEANS, HOUSTON, PORTLAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The supermajority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last four seasons, they are just 206-223 ATS, good for 48%. This is almost a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -39.2 units of loss and an ROI of -9.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, DALLAS, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 565-468, good for 54.7%, +50.2 units, and an ROI of +4.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-DET, ATL-WSH, IND-MEM, LAL-SAC, MIA-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 490-426 (53.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-BKN
UNDER – PHI-DET

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 353-278 (55.9%) since January 2023. This recently discovered, and best of all angles, has produced +47.2 units of profit for +7.5%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-NYK

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +3.5 (+4.8)
2. WASHINGTON +3.5 (+3.3)
3. LA CLIPPERS +5.5 (+2.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -6.5 (+1.3)
2. HOUSTON -7.5 (+0.5)
3. BOSTON -11.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +12.5 (+8.3)
2. BROOKLYN +3.5 (+8.0)
3. SACRAMENTO +12.5 (+4.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -11.5 (+4.4)
2. MEMPHIS -6.5 (+3.3)
3. PORTLAND -3.5 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-DET OVER 219.5 (+6.4)
2. MIL-BOS OVER 223.5 (+2.5)
3. CHA-BKN OVER 213.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-NYK UNDER 233.5 (-3.4)
2. ATL-WSH UNDER 232.5 (-2.3)
3. IND-MEM UNDER 229.5 (-1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +3.5 (+3.4)
2. LA CLIPPERS +5.5 (+2.3)
3. PHOENIX +3.5 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -11.5 (+1.0)
2. HOUSTON -7.5 (+0.8)
3. MEMPHIS -6.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-DET OVER 219.5 (+6.0)
2. DAL-SAS OVER 226.5 (+4.9)
3. IND-MEM OVER 229.5 (+2.9)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-BOS UNDER 223.5 (-0.5)
2. UTA-NOP UNDER 232.5 (-0.3)

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