Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Wednesday, September 16 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Modern Sound (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Modern Sound
2. Miss Pierre
3. Ducat
MODERN SOUND got started too late but finished best, facing much tougher foes than the best in here while returning from a four-month layoff on July 26. On paper, and before scratches, she’ll get a very favorable pace setup as a one-run closing sprinter, and it’s not impossible she could stick just a little closer than in the Ellis dirt race two back. Granted, the For Sale sign is out, but I expect her to approach her baseline and prove a too much for MISS PIERRE, who I considered taking on top as a longer price – but longer price doesn’t mean better value, though it’s possible Modern Sound gets bet well below the morning line. Miss Pierre’s overall form is quite a bit shakier, and while she did rally nicely up the rail last out at IND, she was facing lesser foes than Modern Sound did in her recent dirt sprint, and MP just didn’t look like quite as strong a horse. Draw a line through DUCAT’s last race and guess at an overloaded-early-pace race shape, and she should be included in your plans.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Wednesday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Strife
2. Pink Moon
3. Serenity Song
STRIFE has made 16 starts, a grand total of one of them on dirt, the IND N1X allowance on May 25. She didn’t run badly at all within the framework of this field, and she much prefers this sprint trip to that route race. Finally back down to the level where she belongs, and I don’t see, other than the kind of horses the sire typically produces, why she couldn’t prove very competitive in a dirt race like this. PINK MOON returned last out from a 20-month layoff, dueled in an Ellis 1 1/2-turn mile, and of course got very tired the last quarter mile. Doesn’t seem to want to route even under the best of circumstances, and those sure weren’t that. Showed just enough, though, to suggest that dropped for about half that tag and cut back to a route, she might produce a competitive run at a fairly long price. SERENITY SONG hails from the same barn – zero-for-39 this year – as the top pick, and attracts the much more accomplished and well-known jockey, FWIW (obviously I don’t think it’s worth all that much!). Can’t see work video, no idea how horse might be doing, but races 1 and 2 earlier this year – different trainer, different circuit – stamp her as clearly capable. No thanks on the shorter prices here.
Second Race
1. Inordinary
2. Culprit
3. Weaponized
Trainer J Sharp 9-4-1-0 at the CD meet entering this race week. I expect that sort of success to continue, and INORDINARY makes first start in the barn. Looks like Sharp started training him shortly after the last race, which was, frankly, not very good. In fact, none of the three starts this season can win this race – but the last one from last season sure can. Not beaten far in the strongest 2yo maiden race of the KEE fall meet, and if, as I suspect, he enjoys racing out front in a one-turn mile, he’ll get closer to that form than the recent stuff. CULPRIT only two starts since October 2024 – fair to say returning Aug. 21 from a three-month break he lacked that deep race fitness! Couple that with a lousy trip, buried inside grinding on a slow pace, the class drop here, and making second start without a break, and it’s easy to see him winning or coming close. WEAPONIZED will have a lot of ground to close, and the last three races that make him the M/L favorite are not his longer-term standard fare.
Third Race
1. Concrete Overlay
2. Chrome
3. Amazing Max
CONCRETE OVERLAY improved considerably from his first to second start, and who knows how well he might perform if he’d just break. The mile is fine, this class level should hit his zone, and from the look of a recent team workout at CD, dirt could work better than turf. CHROME for a little while there going to the half-mile pole and partway around the turn looked a little like a real racehorse, but then he emptied out, and post-race workout video didn’t especially encourage me. Still, just holding form ought to put him in the mix here. AMAZING MAX, unlike the top two, debuted for this $30K tag, and while he ran like one mile would be better than the 6f at which he debuted, there wasn’t much of a stretch move or a gallop out to suggest he’s going to merit his relatively short price.
Fourth Race
1. J B Strikes Back
2. Bestfriend Rocket
3. California Burrito
Quite the $25K reclaim of J B STRIKES BACK by Purple Rein and O’Neill – the horse went on to earn almost 10X that amount and won a Grade 2. He worked back after the Big Cap in March 2025, then went quiet, but worked once in Aug. 2025, then once in October, then not again until May at KEE. About a month gap in works mid-June to mid-July, but he’s since been on a pattern. A few of the recent drills are on video, and they are quite encouraging. Looks to me that they’re entering aggressively to win a good purse before something goes amiss again. Think he’ll prove fit enough for the route. BESTFRIEND ROCKET unlike others here just seems to be who he is – a solid fit for $32K at this point in his career, and I trust him to “run his race” more than several. Two turns might suit better than the CNL one-turn mile, but he did get the easiest imaginable trip, winning two back at CD. CALIFORNIA BURRITO has not won since Feb. 2025 and has never won on a fast dirt track, but I think he can handle dirt adequately. Seems spotted for action, blinkers off on the drop, returning from another break. CURLIN’S MALIBU could bounce back, sure, but I wouldn’t bet on it at the price.
Fifth Race
1. Charging Force
2. When I Go
3. Farrokh
CHARGING FORCE had the best work among all the video I could find for the many first-time starters. Believe he’ll be fit enough if he’s good enough – and believe he’s good enough. Given the way he backed off late after making a slick inside move past the 3f marker WHEN I GO might benefit from the addition of blinkers. Wasn’t coming close to winning but did get cut off inside the final furlong, which did compromise what little was left of his momentum. One workout video from several months ago up for firster FARROKH, and I actually liked the way he went in it.
Seventh Race
1. Sunfyre
2. Touch Money
3. Detention
Thought I saw some decent stuff in the lone work video (Aug. 15) up for first-timer SUNFYRE. He also has a workout pattern that looks a lot like the one I used to see frequently with live first-time starters from trainer Carl Nafzger, for whom this trainer was a long-time assistant. Not huge confidence here, however. TOUCH MONEY was meant to win the debut and was the best horse in that race -that race, however, being an La-bred MSW at Evangeline. The trainer, though, knows his levels, and, yes, think there’s a decent chance that TM can fit with restricted maidens at CD. Does not seem to have much speed, which actually might give the rider a chance to get off the rail down the backstretch. DETENTION took action when sent to CNL for a VA-restricted MSW – nothing at all doing there. Ran too bad to be true, and post-race work video, solo gate drill, encouraged at least mildly. Likely fave Unbridled Freedom had zero response when winner last out came to him, and, to me, his performance looks better on paper than replay. The other shorter price who’s had experience, Pirate Ship, was only all right in the last two at SAR, even accounting for poor starts – which could trouble him again.
Eighth Race
1. Trouble Time
2. Bob’s Carrot
3. Remi’s Moon
TROUBLE TIME keeps hinting at a better, more complete race, and I think at some point – like, now — will deliver one. Like the horse out to 7f, and would be nice if he could sit behind the speed a little longer before delivering his relatively short run. Can turn the tables on BOB’S CARROT, who beat him four lengths in their common last start. Counterintuitive to some extent that a horse who hasn’t been finishing off his 6f races would prefer 7f, but I think Bob does. REMI’S MOON on dirt for the first time since being claimed by Sharp and Co for $25K, and he’s still not in for a tag. Maybe I’m under-rating him – 7f seems like his best game, and at least as good on dirt as turf, isn’t he?
Ninth Race
1. Sister Wife
2. Shot At Perfection
3. Fraudster
SISTER WIFE was not bad in her debut and when meant to improve second out instead took a huge step back and barely ran at all. That was last fall’s form cycle, and the Belterra comeback – albeit at Belterra – was not bad at all, and could have her set up for a career peak while exiting the MSW ranks for the first time. Barn already with two winners at the meet. SHOT AT PERFECTION merits favoritism, and if coming anywhere near her best race, she wins. But what was that last out at IND? Total no-show, and cracks already had been showing. I’m a little torn, but at the expected price, feel like I have to stand against. Really have no idea what to expect from FRAUDSTER on the circuit change, barn change, surface change, and off the layoff, but would guess she’s capable enough on dirt to make the class drop to her lowest level mean something.
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