Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
What was supposed to be a reasonably predictable race last Sunday at Gateway got away, as a record 18 cautions set the tone for the day’s event. Several top Chase contenders finished out of the race with accident designations, making this week’s race at Bristol even more critical. The Bass Pro Shops Night Race was already going to be important, as it is a knockout race for the first round of the Chase, but now, with eight drivers still locked in a tight battle for four advancing spots, things could get very intense on Saturday night. That said, the top six projected drivers in my initial simulation run are all in good shape to make it into round 2 and will probably be going to the Checkered Flag rather than just points. Ryan Blaney leads the class and tops four of my five simulation variables.
There was a time recently when the races at Bristol were must-watch events on the annual NASCAR schedule. That enthusiasm has waned a bit in recent years as the action here has shifted from what was a lot of intense multi-lane racing, which featured a lot of beating and banging, to single-groove-style events in which the only regular passes seem to be frontrunners going by lap cars. Before the spring race, there was hope that the track compound and new Goodyear racing tires would improve things, but that didn’t really materialize. Ty Gibbs won that race after leading just 25 laps, and was followed by Blaney and Kyle Larson. Those latter two have been statistically dominant here lately and for that reason are listed as two of the top 3 favorites by DraftKings, along with Denny Hamlin. All three are +550 or better.
For us bettors, Bristol boasts a handicap-ability grade of B, thus bringing a relatively strong level of predictability. It used to be a D-graded track back in the early to mid 2000’s. In fact, from 1997-2007, this track produced over 13 cautions per race. That was when Bristol really got its reputation as a duke-it-out type of track. That is no longer the case, as the Next Gen Car race has seen just 8.1 cautions per. Of course, the oval is one of the smallest on the circuit at 0.533 miles, and the banking is severe at 24-28 degrees, so this combination leads to tighter racing than usual, which can naturally lend itself to chaos. Hopefully we see some more passing and competitiveness on Saturday night, helping to restore this track and this race in particular to its former glory. Of the last two seasons here, Alex Boman (2x), AJ Allmendinger, and Ty Gibbs have taken home checkered flags.
Looking back closer at last week now, things were rough for our final simulation at Gateway, as the carnage had an obvious effect on our projections and should drop the track race handicap-ability grade noticeably for next year. With that in mind, this is how the Enjoy Illinois 300 impacted our season numbers to date.
Initial Gateway simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW -0.15 units for the season
Final Gateway Simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +32.05 units for the season (These are +88.85 units for the last two seasons!)
Final Gateway Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: Two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +14.35 units for the season
Final Gateway Simulation Top 3 drivers To Win: Three Losers – total return -3 units – NOW +11.15 units for the season (Larson was projected 4th)
Final simulation top 3 Gateway projections: one winner, two losers –total return -0.65 units – NOW -3.3 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Gateway projections: one winner, four losers – total return -4.85 units – Now -38.85 units for the season
We only scored three Top 10s, and that brought back -15.55 units. If you recall, I stopped recording those results last month when the Top 10 odds went off our feed regularly. However, let me be blunt and clear about this next statement: I never wager anything with more than about -250 odds in NASCAR. I would venture to guess that, of our -38.85 units on Top 5 projections this season, at least half are on guys who were way overpriced by my -250 standard. There is simply too much that can go wrong in any given race that is outside each driver’s control to pay lofty prices like that. That is on any available wager. If you recall, our Top 10 earnings lost over 25 units on one SVG projection back at Coronado in July. Simply don’t do it! The prices this past race were significantly jacked up.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
Final simulation top 5 Gateway projections: two winners, three losers – total return -2.85 units – Now -51.7 units for the season
Top Gateway Longshots to win: four losers –total return -4 units – Now -12 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Gateway: Elliott (31st), Wallace (14th), Buescher (27th), Bowman (2nd)– Now 81 for 113 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10.
I’m not sure anyone could have seen Bowman’s second-place run coming at Gateway after he had the circuit’s 23rd-best track rating heading into the race. That said, the other three struggle predictions went pretty well.
Looking ahead to Bristol on Saturday, I dug out the stats for the four races run at this high-banked concrete oval over the last two calendar years. Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson seem to be the top guys in most categories, but Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe, Carson Hocevar, and Denny Hamlin also come up often. Remember, this is the second race at Bristol this season, and the key difference is that the spring race was run in the daylight. That can make a difference as the cars have totally different setups and the drivers have different goals at this time of year. With a handicap-ability grade of B, I’m expecting better returns this week than we’ve seen recently. That said, again, the top two simulation factors in order are 1) how drivers fare at Bristol, and 2) Recent Momentum. The driver who would seem to benefit most from that recipe is Ryan Blaney, #1 in the series on both accounts.
Average Starting Position the Last Four Races at Bristol
1. Kyle Larson: 4.5
2. Ty Gibbs: 7
3. Denny Hamlin: 7.25
4. Ryan Blaney: 7.5
5. Christopher Bell: 9
6. Carson Hocevar: 9.5
…
27. Connot Zilisch: 26
28. Daniel Suarez: 26.5
29. John Hunter Nemechek: 27.5
30. Erik Jones: 28.75
31. Todd Gilliland: 31.25
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 32.33
Average Practice Speed Rank the Last Four Races at Bristol
1. Ryan Blaney: 5.25
2. Connor Zilisch: 7
3. Ty Gibbs: 9.25
4. Austin Cindric: 10.5
5. Michael McDowell: 10.5
6. Kyle Larson: 11
…
27. Ross Chastain: 25
28. Tyler Reddick: 25.75
29. Chris Buescher: 31
30. Shane Van Gisbergen: 31
31. Daniel Suarez: 31.25
32. Josh Berry: 35
Average Running Position the Last Four Races at Bristol
1. Ryan Blaney: 6.25
2. Kyle Larson: 7.5
3. Chase Briscoe: 7.75
4. Denny Hamlin: 7.75
5. Ty Gibbs: 8.5
6. Carson Hocevar: 9.5
…
27. Erik Jones: 24.75
28. John Hunter Nemechek: 27.5
29. Todd Gilliland: 27.5
30. Daniel Suarez: 28
31. Connor Zilisch: 29
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 34.33
Average Fastest Laps the Last Four Races at Bristol
1. Kyle Larson: 61.25
2. Ryan Blaney: 47.25
3. Ty Gibbs: 29
4. Denny Hamlin: 22.25
5. Christopher Bell: 17.75
6. Carson Hocevar: 15.75
…
27. Shane Van Gisbergen: 4
28. Austin Dillon: 3.75
29. Josh Berry: 3
30. Zane Smith: 2.75
31. Michael McDowell: 2
32. Connor Zilisch: 0
Best Average % Laps Completed the Last Four Races at Bristol
1. Ryan Blaney: 100.0%
2. Ty Gibbs: 100.0%
3. Chase Briscoe: 100.0%
4. Carson Hocevar: 99.9%
5. Ross Chastain: 99.9%
6. Ryan Preece: 99.9%
…
27. Daniel Suarez: 92.7%
28. Chase Elliott: 90.5%
29. John Hunter Nemechek: 90.4%
30. Josh Berry: 77.8%
31. Alex Bowman: 75.2%
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 69.1%
Average Driver Rating the Last Four Races at Bristol
1. Kyle Larson: 124.23
2. Ryan Blaney: 113.45
3. Ty Gibbs: 107.08
4. Chase Briscoe: 103.18
5. Christopher Bell: 101.65
6. Denny Hamlin: 100.7
…
27. John Hunter Nemechek: 50.7
28. Erik Jones: 48.43
29. Todd Gilliland: 48.15
30. Daniel Suarez: 44.85
31. Connot Zilisch: 37.7
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 36.17
Most Average Laps Run in Top 15 the Last Four Races at Bristol
1. Ryan Blaney: 480
2. Chase Briscoe: 471.5
3. Denny Hamlin: 459.75
4. Ty Gibbs: 428.75
5. Darrell Wallace: 416.5
6. Kyle Larson: 393.75
…
27. Erik Jones: 58.5
28. Todd Gilliland: 58.5
29. Austin Dillon: 58
30. Daniel Suarez: 49.5
31. Connor Zilisch: 4
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
Best Average Finish the Last Four Races at Bristol
1. Ryan Blaney: 4.25
2. Chase Briscoe: 6.5
3. Ty Gibbs: 7.25
4. Kyle Larson: 9.25
5. Christopher Bell: 10.25
6. Denny Hamlin: 11.5
…
27. Erik Jones: 24.75
28. John Hunter Nemechek: 25.75
29. Josh Berry: 28
30. Daniel Suarez: 28.25
31. Shane Van Gisbergen: 32.67
32. Connor Zilisch: 33
As you look at these stats, a couple of anomalies stand out, primarily around the Penske and Hendrick teams. Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson seem to be the only drivers in these multi-car garages who have a good handle on getting around Bristol successfully. This sort of opens the door for a lot of other competing teams to grab top spots. Specifically, the teams at JGR, Trackhouse, and 23XI have to be pretty excited for Saturday.
With all the above stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Bristol, in order, are Blaney, Gibbs, Larson, Hocevar, Briscoe. For track designation, the order is Reddick, Hamlin, Elliott, Larson, Gibbs. In terms of recent ratings, the top 5 are Blaney, Briscoe, Logano, Larson, Gibbs. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the VSiN.com website by navigating under the SPORTS tab to AUTO RACING, then to NASCAR HUB.
The final simulation will be made available Friday evening after practice & qualifying, which is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. Remember, qualifying and practice haven’t been that crucial lately at Bristol. Of course, things could change, even at the top, since my sims project Blaney to be best in both practice and qualifying, and he could drop if he isn’t. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after practice and qualifying), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Blaney, Larson, Briscoe, Hamlin, Hocevar
Top underdogs to consider (+1100 or more): Briscoe, Hocevar, Wallace, Bowman
Favorites to struggle: Byron, Logano, Berry, SVG
The 500-lap event at Bristol is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 19th.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full initial simulation. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds and much, much more.
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