Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, March 20 racing card at Fair Grounds, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Neat (8th race)
Eighth Race
1. Neat
2. West Hollywood
3. Higgins Boat
NEAT had a lost 2025 season that ended in August with him leaving the racecourse in an equine ambulance. Trouble line after trouble line, and perhaps wins the Kelso two back with a clean trip. Four-time stakes winner hasn’t run in an allowance race since his third start at age 2, and this represents a meaningful class drop (that hasn’t been priced into the morning line). Solid work pattern with no gaps looks sufficient, and even has a win over the course. WEST HOLLYWOOD away since last April, but the B Cox barn has huge numbers in most long-layoff categories, including 180+ days with an allowance comeback. WH showed a lot of talent as a 3yo of 2024 before a mainly lost 2025 season, and I won’t be surprised if he gets closer to this 3yo form than his 4yo form in his 5yo debut. HIGGINS BOAT right back at the same level where he just won, and the horse he nipped last time, while coming back from a long layoff, is nice. This seems like a deeper race than that, however, and you get no upside at a depressed price.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Friday’s Fair Grounds card.
First Race
1. Sir Pistolero 2. Sand Street 3. D Coldest
SIR PISTOLERO has run on grass more than dirt, while also starting in many route races. Last year, he got into three dirt sprints, all at much higher class levels than this, and didn’t run poorly. In fact, Sir Pistolero had never been in for a tag nearly as low as $7.5K until Feb. 12 and was compromised that day by breaking through the gate pre-start. Now down to $5K, and think the snakebit barn gets off the duck here. While SAND STREET won by just a half-length last time, the 4-5 favorite behind him (a habitul runner-up) had more than nine lengths on third place. If SS runs back to that, he wins – but returning on 15 days rest following by far the fastest race of his short career? You’d have to bet on regression. D COLDEST has been busy this year since switching barns and circuits; this will be his fourth start in two months. But unlike Sand Street, he seems like a horse racing his way to a peak that just might come here.
Second Race
1. Awree
2. Seamus’s Girl
3. Broadway Star
AWREE raced on turf her last five starts and was beaten a pole in her most recent dirt race, which came last May, but that’s not a true marker. She showed more in all five of her other dirt races, and four of them were sprints too short for this miler. About a year ago, going this short-stretch main track FG mile, she checked in a decent fourth after losing ground from a wide post position while facing LA-bred MSW foes. She’s way down to $7.5K claimer and onto dirt here because she’s getting farther away from rather than closer to clearing that La-bred N1X condition; were she to run for the lowest turf claiming tags at FG, she’d either be in open company for $10K in a race with a $5K starter option, or in the same kind of LA-bred opt claimer she’s been losing. Not only does she figure and look well enough meant, the spot’s a soft one even for this low level. SEAMUS’S GIRL is kind of “too slow” on the Beyers but has raced only twice. One might imagine she won at a sprint trip last time in spite of the distance rather than because of it, and that she can do somewhat better in a short-stretch mile. BROADWAY STAR only been down at this low level her last two starts and really needs only run back to her last out to contend.
Third Race
1. Wosiemaks
2. Reimagine
3. Spicy Italian
WOSIEMAKS last FG meet went sprint-sprint-route to start her career, but the route came over sloppy going, and since she didn’t work back for six months, physical problems as much as track conditions might have led to that thrashing. This meet, she went sprint-spirint-route and came away with a last-start route win – probably no coincidence that the career peak by quite some margin came the first time she tried two turns with a fair chance. It’s on that basis that she’s forecast to step up a rung in class and notch her third win in a row – especially as what appears to be the controlling speed. REIMAGINE making her first start in five months ran a real clunker March 1, and I wonder if even the steep drop to $5K N3L claiming will turn her around. Granted, since a class drop down to $12.5K claiming last summer yielded a couple wins, the $30K tag in the comeback has the feel of a protective entry, suggesting a horse who needed a race before being entered where she belongs. Her dirt win at IND came on a sloppy track and with help from a dream pacesetup, and horses with that running style have won very, very few dirt races this meet. And it if seems like I’m making arguments against rather than for while tabbing her in the top three, that’s because she’s listed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite. SPICY ITALIAN was dreadful in her two races after being claimed for this price. Freshened, but wonder how much bounce-back she has left.
Fourth Race
1. Watering
2. Spirit to Inspire
3. Cruising the Town
Clearly WATERING is in for this $5K tag to get claimed before the meet ends and stables pack up and hit the road. Fairly confident that win-and-get-claimed is the plan here – but I’m not telling you anything that’s not hit-over-head obvious. Can run several lengths below baseline and still win, and will be priced accordingly, strongly odds-on. SPIRIT TO INSPIRE does not inspire confidence having taken three solid defeats this meet while racing under these same conditions. Would guess, though, that if she could make her way to a clear lead, she’d stick around longer, and, top to bottom, this race is worse than her previous FG runs. CRUISING THE TOWN got a surprisingly high figure for the narrow $12.5K last-out maiden win over six foes. Don’t really mind the two-week turnaround but question whether she really ran that fast.
Fifth Race
Fifth Race
1. One Tough Road 2. Bourbon Americana 3. A Long Time
One of these $12.5K maiden-claimers (lowest open maiden-claiming tag at FG) that I like to fall a Festival of Droppers: Four of the entrants last raced for a $30K tag or even a higher level than that. Don’t feel super-confident regarding ONE TOUGH ROAD, but look at that work pattern since his last start, on Jan. 16. Looks like he’s been primed to knock this one out of the park, and if my form interpretation is correct, he’s going to be a small fraction of thje morning-line price. BOURBON AMERICANA is not one of the droppers, but in his first after being culled from a big-time outfit, he ran a very competitive race. Not a nightmare trip, but also not a clean run while coming through the homestretch with interest. A LONG TIME, the J Sharp-trained stablemate of the top pick, did take a sound defeat two back for just a $10K tag, but that came at Oaklawn for a different barn, and his dirt-route debut last out yielded easily his best showing. Speed from the rail, potentially improving, possibly overlooked.
Sixth Race
1. Maki Monarchy 2. Special Awakening 3. E Lion
Came in wanting to beat favored MAKI MONARCHY – and came out seeing him as pretty solid here! Wasn’t injury that led to him being pulled up four back in the race from which these connections claimed him; draw a line through that start and find that all six of his middle-distance grass starts produced performances that probably win this. Has the tactical pace to avoid the kind of trouble that could get him beat as the best horse. Almost went with SPECIAL AWAKENING, but it’s not like he’s going to be much of a price in this group. Bet way down Jan. 24 in his long-layoff comeback, where he got home by a narrow margin over a horse who also took surprisingly strong win action. They debuted him in a turf route in which he went off at 10-1, which suggests that the horse was seen as grass before he made the races. That was his lone start in blinkers and probably not close to a true representation of his turf ability. I consider both the sire and the dam’s sire to be turf influences – but even if he takes to the lawn, not sure he’s up for taking down Maki Monarchy. E LION has not been that far behind the top pick in races this meet, but baseline to baseline, he won’t turn the tables.
Seventh Race
1. Come Sail Away
2. Blag’s Mom
3. Metry Mama
Not many runners this meet from the L Rivelli barn, and also not many winners considering the outfit’s perenially glittering win percentage. COME SAIL AWAY though – she looks primed and very well meant. This barn has proven over the long term that they train to win first out, and the work pattern here jumps off the page in that direction. Owner paid $130K for an LA-bred son of Lone Sailor – you can bet they really want to knock out the statebred-restricted maiden before meet’s end. BLAG’S MOM ships all the way from Florida to debut in this LA-bred MSW, though the trainer has had a small Delta Downs presence for a few years. Two workout videos. We’ve got three workout videos, and the change for the better between Feb. 22 and March 15 was striking, though some of that might owe to working in company 3/15 rather than solo in the February drill. METRY MAMA could be favored over Come Sail Away, and here, too, the work pattern comes back very encouraging. It’s just that this barn tends to bring horses along at a more measured pace than the 25% debut outfit.
Ninth Race
1. Ashes in the Ocean
2. Pardoned
3. Vega Star
ASHES IN THE OCEAN troubled trips in his two starts post-long layoff yet ran decently both times. Better start means a more forward trip, and better luck means a higher placing — and at this stage, he looks solid at the $5K conditioned class. PARDONED drops hard, from allowance and $20K to $5K, but was claimed out of $10K maiden romp – this is probably his level. Does look well meant, but you’ll have to take a relatively short price on a horse who tries two turns for the first time. VEGA STAR nothing doing on turf last time, but he’s a dirt horse, and building on his second-after-layoff run two back he can contend for win.
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