Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Saturday, March 21 racing card at Fair Grounds, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 12.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Chip Honcho (12th race)
Twelfth Race
1. Chip Honcho
2. Golden Tempo
3. Emerging Market
CHIP HONCHO can prove his legitimacy here – and I think he will, perhaps not as a very top-shelf Kentucky Derby player, but as a horse who very much belongs in the race. Not only was his Risen Star very good – especially if you believe in Paladin, which I do — it did not come out of nowhere. CH ran well in his debut and really has not put a wrong foot forward, even winning the Gun Runner despite pulling too hard and running out of gas – as did everyone else in that race. He doesn’t pull too hard if you let him use himself on the lead, and with a decent break, that’s where he’ll be here. He stays, and I doubt they catch him. Blinkers on could be a game-changer for GOLDEN TEMPO – or not. The trainer’s first-blinkers record is not encouraging, but the hood has made a change for the better in workouts, at least. Was against the pace and track profile while running one gamely for third in the Risen Star, and still think he has another level to find – perhaps a substantially higher one. Big ask for EMERGING MARKET to ship from Florida, go 1 3/16 miles, and move from a debut maiden score into the LA Derby. Definitely has the talent to fit with these, but will he be ready mentally and physically? Could be, but the price probably will be wrong to find out.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other thirteen races on Friday’s Fair Grounds card.
First Race
1. Royal Causeway
2. Prepped
3. Mount Vernon
That was a good turf maiden route ROYAL CAUSEWAY ran in Feb. 5. Black Hornet, who ran him down in deep stretch, came back to win the Black Gold Stakes and runs Saturday in the $777,000 Jeff Ruby. Third-place horse came back to win an FG turf maiden. Royal Causeway was best in that race, too. Poor start, well behind a pace that was slowing onto the backstretch, whereupon the rider launched a slingshot move, running almost all the way up to the front before the far turn, eventually taking the lead. Quite something that RC managed to hold a clear second given the trip, and that race didn’t come out of nowhere. This barn often builds slowly with young horses. Better trip here, and he stands a great chance here. Looks like connections took their time with PREPPED (who is blinkers on) awaiting this very spot after a second straight runner-up finish on Feb. 5. I don’t think the horses that beat Prepped in his last two are as good as Black Hornet. Still, I suppose this horse has to be included in your plans. His C DeVaux-trained stablemate MOUNT VERNON, also first blinkers, was a slyly decent if well beaten sixth in his lone start. Looking for something considerably better.
Second Race
1. Braken Poppa
2. What’s Love
3. Play On Player
You don’t need me to tell you BRAKEN POPPA is the most likely Crescent City Oaks winner by a country mile. I can tell you that she’s a stout filly who won easily last time and appears to be thriving with racing. I don’t expect regression, and I don’t expect her to lose. WHAT’S LOVE or PLAY ON PLAYER could bump the gimmicks of second-choice Thrill Seeker fades late like I think she might. Her second route was worse than her first one, and I don’t see that trend reversing. What’s Love didn’t have much of a trip when a well-beaten second behind Poppa two back, but I don’t take that as a strong signal she can’t route. Looks like she continues improving. Play On Player’s even Tapeta fourth facing debuting in open company could have her set to outrun her odds facing fellow La-breds second out.
Third Race
1. Marauder
2. Paul’s Recovery
3. Double Entendre
MARAUDER’s second behind La Derby runner Chip Honcho last fall in a Churchill one-turn mile caught my eye. I picked him with some confidence when he returned to action Feb. 14 – and Marauder laid an egg. In a way, I’d rather see a distant defeat like he suffered there than a loss that suggests the horse ran his race and just wasn’t good enough. What he did was not run his race at all, and there’s major bounce-back potential here. PAUL’S RECOVERY has zero holes in his Fair Grounds work pattern (if only we could see some of those works on video!). Trainer K McPeek the last five years a solid 12-81 (15%) with dirt-route firsters in maiden special weight races. DOUBLE ENTENDRE looks like he has talent, but I get the sense he isn’t really applying himself yet. Blinkers could help there.
Fourth Race
1. Arabian Power
2. Rock Music
3. Great Moment
Morning line has the B Cox-trained firster ARABIAN POWER at 6-1 and the B Cox-trained firster ROCK MUSIC at 7-2. Prat rides Rock Music and Zayas rides Arabian Power, but Cox has Zayas on his stronger La Derby chance, and I’m not taking much away from the jockey assignments. Encouraging workout video for ARABIAN POWER. I’m sure there are exceptions, but the unraced maidens Cox wintered at FG this season are an inferior group to the same set of horses at Payson Park in Florida. GREAT MOMENT chased a sharp front-running winner Feb. 21, a career-best showing in his sixth start but first in the better part of a year. Not totally believing that was an 85 Beyer-level performance.
Fifth Race
1. Free Scrim
2. Bandido Deal
3. Dapper Moon
FREE SCRIM, based on a Churchill workout video before he shipped to Fair Grounds, was one of my most confident selections this meet when he busted La-bred maidens on Nov. 21. Think that race took the starch out of him, though he won anyway coming back Jan. 2. No racing since and we’ve got gaps in works – and I don’t care. Mr. Stall tailors his training to the individual, doesn’t need to work them hard every week. Strong feeling the La Derby day race was the spot all along, and I look for him to get back to that sharp November form. Once in a while you find a true blinkers horse – and wow did the hood going on two back send BANDIDO DEAL into a different form zone. Ample time and those nice easy half-miles since his second straight win, and I think he has another one of those in him. Totally exposed DAPPER MOON needs only hold form to get into the frame, but I don’t really see him winning this.
Sixth Race
1. Cupids Crush
2. Way to Be Marie
3. Ready for Shirl
CUPIDS CRUSH, you realize, gave the graded-stakes class Medoro a front-running run for the money in the Krantz two races back. CC is not the sort of horse to string races like that together. She ran worse last month in the Stall Memorial, but I look at that as a bridge race, getting her back to her best here in the Benson. Pace scenario in her favor. Likely to offer value. WAY TO BE MARIE had a real affinity for the FG lawn last season and the meet before. Decent chance she’s slightly better this year at age 5 than slightly worse, and I expect her to come back from a winter break ready for something representative – especially in this squishy spot. Happy to throw out READY FOR SHIRL’s Peg World Cup F & M Turf dud, but also wondering how 5yo mare making her 16th start will adapt to a barn change.
Seventh Race
1. Chianti Town
2. Mo the Merrier
3. Mr. All In
CHIANTI TOWN did get weight of course, but faced salty older rivals – the winner in particular is quite fast – making his debut and lone start Feb. 21. I liked the look of his race. He traveled well enough down backstretch and around turn, and while the front-running winner got away in upper stretch, CT ran on and finished with interest. He’s supposed to move forward in this, his second start, and if that happens, he’s got a great chance – provided a trip can be worked out from this rail draw. Two outside-drawn firsters, MO THE MERRIER and MR. ALL IN, hold some appeal. Have mentioned several times in this space that the linemaker also clocks morning work – he has Mo the Merrier at 9-2, pretty aggressive for this barn (doesn’t focus on debut wins) in this field, and that suggests to me that the horse has caught the eye while breezing. Mr. All In first foal to race from a talented sprinter-miler, and I’m looking way back to Jan. 24, when he already was working a bullet 5f. This is the one who could be great value.
Eighth Race
1. Nine Part
2. Strong Promise
3. Hay Jude
NINE PART won four in a row to start his career, and, in fact, no one got close to him. Bad start, sure, but also nowhere near his FG best when beaten at 1-10 (!) in May at EVD. No coincidence, I’m sure, that he got a long layoff and pointed for FG again. Returned on turf, and I wasn’t sure he’d be as good as on dirt – he was. Strong finish, and the super high-percentage barn, I feel certain, had this race in mind when they ran him in the last one. STRONG PROMISE hit a career peak last out on Delta dirt, but there’s nothing wrong with his three grass races – other than the fact they came at EVD, which used to be a different ball game than FG turf, though, given the change in the course this meet, that might not be so true any longer. Wildcat Heir close up in the pedigree of a horse trying a turf sprint for the first time always catches my eye, but I’m not sure HAY JUDE, a grandson of Wildcat Heir, is going to be quite quick enough for 5 1/2 on fast-playing grass even if the surface switch works.
Ninth Race
1. Life and Times
2. Touchuponastar
3. Westwood
LIFE AND TIMES works like a monster, which I noticed when watching Accelerize, his occasional breeze partner, train for the Louisiana Stakes, which he won. Given the way he trains, I took his two NY wins to (very belatedly) start his career more seriously than I might otherwise, and so, to me, it was initially disappointing he proved no match for Knightsbridge when stepping up to stakes competition Jan. 24 in the Fred Hooper. My initial reaction was too harsh. Knightsbridge is an absolute monster miler, and Life and Times found himself in a terrible spot to try and take him on, breaking a beat slow from the rail, rushing up into a very strong pace, pressed every step before fading. Well, if he needed a hard race, he got one. The dam was a sprinter-miler, yet I have the strong sense that L and T is going to prove better going 1 1/8 miles around two turns than in those one-turn miles. And among the several serious pace players entered here, I feel best about him sitting a couple lengths off the gallop. Nothing but praise for TOUCHUPONASTAR, who tries for his second straight NO Classic win. They’ve kept him on the same schedule as last winter, and the gelding has looked as strong as ever this form cycle. Still, he’s in for a more demanding trip than in last year’s race. Regular rider injured and has a new pilot now. Accelerize will scratch I don’t think Corporate Power is good enough to capitalize on a setup, and I doubt the capable Not This Boy really wants nine furlongs, so, tepidly, WESTWOOD for third.
Tenth Race
1. Montador
2. Program Trading
3. Lagynos
MONTADOR brims with upside, making his ninth start early as an early 4yo. He lost, but he handled the move into older-horse stakes racing well enough last month in the Fair Grounds S, doing so with what I thought was a tough trip for the horse he is. Caught in claustrophobic spots most of the way, and doesn’t have the electric acceleration that would’ve been required to win when he finally got clear. Better racing luck could lead to a better result as the third choice here. Mixed on PROGRAM TRADING. His Turf Mile at KEE was good and he had no chance in the BC Mile – moreover, he’s not really a miler, but a nine-furlong horse. But he got that distance as the Pegasus Turf favorite and could only finish an even fifth. Trainer says he did not want to go through a gap along the fence. Outside close helps? Did not think LAGYNOS could do nine furlongs and come close to his best. Not only did he get the nine furlongs of the Fair Grounds, he ran at worst the second-best race of his career. Am slightly skeptical of him running back to that performance, but the price might come up fair enough to guess he does. TOM’S MAGIC probably not quite as good as stablemate Montador but had no chance last out given pace setup and has done some good things throughout his career.
Eleventh Race
1. Bella Ballerina
2. Newtown Pike
3. Luv Your Neighbor
BELLA BALLERINA has plenty of points to make the Kentucky Oaks field, and the trainer has no reason to push her hard into this race – she’s already a G2 winner, and while staying unbeaten would be nice, the whole idea is to get her to the Oaks in the best shape possible. Regardless, I think she wins. I expect at least incremental improvement off the Rachel Alexandra, and while she led there, she can sit third if the rail horse and the outside-drawn filly both go for it. The price? Not appealing. NEWTOWN PIKE is a nice filly, ran a winning race with a very tough trip last time, and I’d probably take her to upset the favorite were she on a different pattern. Scratched sick from the Honeybeet March 1 at Oaklawn, missed a little time – suspect next time is the time we see her best. Not sure how to deal with LUV YOUR NEIGHBOR, who has a case of seconditis for whatever reason. Took a lead on Bella B and appeared to have her measured at the furlong grounds, but couldn’t close the deal. Not sure she quite has another one like that in her right now, but she’s proven a solid, capable filly.
Thirteenth Race
1. Determined Dancer
2. Prima Donna
3. Raspberry
I’m not real bullish on Race 5 from Feb. 14, the heat that several shorter prices exit. First-time starter DETERMINED DANCER has plenty, plenty of work for her debut. Have to figure she’s ready if she has the ability. PRIMA DONNA was quite green while racing competitively in that Feb. 14 maiden turf route. I could see her improving and still needing one more start to get to her winning form. RASPBERRY will have to cross over from a poor outside post, but looks like she has the speed to do so. Blinkers experiment went nowhere in Golden Rod, and they’re off again for her 3yo debut. Switch to turf could yield dividends.
Fourteenth Race
1. Dirty Straight Up
2. Charlie Prime
3. Soft Hands
DIRTY STRAIGHT UP the obvious favorite with a head loss last out in a race like this. Low price coupled with rail draw in a big field is not at all appealing, but I expect him to hit the break, get to the front, and use that three-start foundation to take them all the way. CHARLIE PRIME brought a flashy work pattern into a not flashy debut, but maybe a sloppy track tamped down his ability. First-timer SOFT HANDS fetched a pretty big price for a Louisiana sale. Expect him fit and ready for his debut – but might he want more distance?
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