Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Monday, August 3 racing card at Gulfstream Park, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Citizen of London (8th race)
Eighth Race
1. Citizen of London
2. Cash Bonus
3. Parnassus
CITIZEN OF LONDON, today’s best bet, is by an 11% debut sire and a 10% debut turf sire. His dam went 16-2-2-3 and earned 146K (144K on the grass). This is her first foal. Turf and distance Tommies are outstanding at 351/369. Team Toner are 2 for 5 with their debut maidens going a mile or more. Lots and lots of well-spaced works are exactly what we want to see. CASH BONUS was thought enough of to try a turf route in his debut at Keeneland. His follow-up tries are all solid if not jaw-dropping. He just lost as the favorite but that was his first start here. Some horses just need a race to acclimate to here. We like this rail draw. PARNASSUS is working up a storm. A top turf barn sees fit to try special weights and perhaps that tips hand. BARJOUJ is by a 11% debut sire and a 6% debut turf sire. His dam went 10-2-0-1 for 115K (1-0-0-0 on the grass). This is her first foal.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other seven races on Monday’s Gulfstream Park card.
First Race
1. Shes Blue N Orange
2. Vanish
3. Oxar
SHES BLUE N ORANGE is by a 11% debut turf sire. Her dam missed the board in two starts on the green. Two of six sibs won on the grass. We like that this filly has tried nothing but two turns in her four-race career. Team Biancone is 36% with their first-time turf runners and 16% going synth to turf. An average pace neither helps nor hurts. VANISH has some speed and ends up in a new barn that is 28% with recent acquisitions. This filly is proven on the sod and is bred to love it with her 344 turf Tommy. OXAR drops in class and goes second off the layoff. She is more than capable of a 71 Beyer on this sod, and she got just that in back-to-back-to-back starts last year. The Beyer par for this race is….71. She is often a good price. QUEEN KONG is by a 0 for 12 debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced and this is her first grass foal.
Second Race
1. Rae’s Creek
2. Camm’s Girl
3. Just Majestic
RAE’S CREEK broke 6th of 7 in her debut and then ran evenly for the most part. Debut rider returns and we always like that. Even better is the fact that seven of nine sibs beat winners while the other two are a combined 11-2-1-0. A better break will help just as much as anything. CAMM’S GIRL just ran better and now puts four races together. Alas, she doesn’t get much pace to chase, but perhaps the big weight break helps her early position. JUST MAJESTIC drops in class while second out for new barn. Any kind of step forward off recent 55 Beyer could make a world of difference.
Third Race
1. Advanced
2. I’m Sam
3. Enchanting Tale
ADVANCED has improved his Beyer in all of his starts. We like how he tried the turf and first-time winners both for the first time in his most recent and outran his odds when 2nd at almost 12-1. Is this guy a new route horse? He has some speed in a race without much pace and draws the rail. Wire please. I’M SAM is feeling good, goes for Joseph, likes the synth, gets Husbands, and drops in class. The one to beat, right? ENCHANTING TALE does have some upside. High percentage barn is 21% with their repeating winners. This colt didn’t cost much, so keeping this guy for sale at 25K is fine with us. Today’s pace should be faster than his recent maiden score.
Fourth Race
1. Mish
2. Adios Now
3. Secret Empire
MISH returned to his winning ways last out and did so convincingly. We thought that Oaklawn race might have taken something from him when he returned and finished 4th two back. New barn is 21% off the claim. Connections are in the black if claimed not to mention any purse monies. Owner/trainer give a leg up to Vasquez, who is 24% for them locally. ADIOS NOW did run better two and four back, which might bode well for today. What if this guy just didn’t like the synth last out? This 5YO has run well from the rail before and is certainly classy enough for this bunch. SECRET EMPIRE has some speed and today’s pace is average. What if this short freshening helps? Hard-trying gelding has hit the exacta in 10 of 16 starts. Those fast and well spaced works just have to help, right?
Fifth Race
1. Navy Cross
2. Bettera
3. Corta Fuego
NAVY CROSS could clear off and get an early breather. Main pace foe is the 2 horse but this guy is more fresh. When feeling good, this 6YO is more than capable of a Beyer in the mid 70’s to low 80’s and that fits perfectly. BETTERA ran great two and three back and that included a race where he pulled. A terrible start cost him everything last out. New barn is the X factor as they don’t claim many (0 for 2). CORTA FUEGO did run better two and four back so maybe that bodes well for today. This guy likes the Tapeta just fine while new barn is 1 for 9 off the claim. GIFTEDBYDESIGN exits a key race where 2 of 8 returned to win with figs of 71 and 80 (another finished 2nd with a 69 Beyer).
Sixth Race
1. Heir to the Roar
2. Royally Blue
3. Laila Bella Girl
HEIR TO THE ROAR gets good race flow and should trip out best. She just won from the rail going this distance on the synth. We don’t see a 7YO with a ton of starts try the grass for the first time, but that was the case with this mare only three back. All she did was win at 2-1. Win rider keeps the faith all for a barn that is 23% in turf sprints. ROYALLY BLUE is another that can pass runners. This 7YO has hit the exacta on this sod in two of four starts. That turf try only two back was solid, and now this mare puts four races together. LAILA BELLA GIRL has some hidden speed but can stalk. She has done all of her winning on this sod. Main question is whether she can put good races together. Team Braddy are 23% with their repeating winners, which is comforting.
Seventh Race
1. Classic of Course
2. Pure Class
3. Wistucky
CLASSIC OF COURSE is cross-entered in a 70K H-cap going a mile on the 1st here. It is real tough to say which is the better spot for him. The purses are almost the same. There is a little more pace in the Saturday race, but we think this is the better distance. Torrealba is named on both days. Feel good runner draws best today. PURE CLASS is feeling great. He has won twice going this tricky distance. Gonzalez returns and is 20% for team Fawkes. WISTUCKY has never missed the exacta going this far. Current form is fine and this horse ran great from the rail only 3, 4, and 5 back. EL PRINCIPITO exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 100 and 86 (another finished 2nd with an 89 Beyer).
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