Some trades are yet to come, but the blockbuster Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers trade requires its own deep dive to say the least. The industry as a whole seems to be despondent about this trade, as many executives have been quoted or paraphrased by beat writers saying that the Tigers didn’t get nearly enough and sold too soon on Skubal given the 36 or so hours left to trade. Others are lamenting the loss of the 2027 season before it becomes a reality.
For a Tigers team that sits just outside the Wild Card picture in the AL, the decision to trade Skubal was not an easy one. If Detroit could get into the playoffs while keeping Skubal and Casey Mize, the AL is about as weak as we’ve seen in a long time. The Rays and Yankees are the class of the league, but neither team is without faults and flaws. Detroit would have had a real shot, but trading Skubal also nets a return that should be impactful going forward and a guaranteed return rather than losing him for a draft pick if he signed somewhere else this offseason. It’s entirely possible that he circles back around to the Tigers after the season anyway, as they absolutely have the money to pay him.
Nevertheless, the deal is done and the big, bad Dodgers are an even shorter price to win the World Series. Let’s look at that side of the deal first before looking at the Detroit side and if there is a bet to be made on them despite the loss of their ace.
Tarik Skubal and the Dodgers’ World Series odds
The Dodgers were favored to win the Fall Classic anyway, but the odds were anywhere from +170 to +200, give or take a little bit on either side. The price is pretty consistently in the +150 range now. They are also a stronger odds-on favorite to win the NL Pennant.
Obviously the impact of getting Skubal is massive for the Dodgers, as they have maybe the best pitcher or second-best pitcher on the planet as a member of what was already a stellar rotation. But, it’s also more about the Brewers not getting him. Milwaukee could have put together a package around Jett Williams or Luis Lara or somebody else and likely gotten the reigning Cy Young Award winner, but they operate on really thin financial margins and probably didn’t want to mortgage several prospects for an extra 5-10% chance of winning the World Series this season.
So the Dodgers, who will coast to the NL West title and are heavy favorites to be the No. 1 seed, or at least get a bye as the No. 2 seed, were the ones who moved in to get Skubal.
Tigers’ Playoff Odds after the Tarik Skubal trade
Detroit got OF Zyhir Hope and SPs River Ryan and Brady Smith in the deal. The 21-year-old Hope is the centerpiece of the deal, as he was taken in the 11th round by the Cubs out of Colonial Forge HS. They gave him a $400,000 signing bonus to bypass college and play pro ball. As a 19-year-old in A-ball, Hope posted a .287/.415/.490 slash with some pretty elite plate discipline for a high school hitter. In Year 2 at age 20, he played in High-A and stole 26 bases with 13 HR and a .264/.377/.428 slash. He finished the season at Double-A and has played all of this season there.
The Tigers are betting on hope with Hope, in that he’s super athletic, still very young and raw, and has a ton of projection in his profile. He won’t turn 22 until January and will have around 1,400 minor league plate appearances under his belt. That’s really significant.
If Ryan wasn’t hurt all the time, he’d be a fixture in a big-league rotation. What bothers me about this deal is that Ryan, who is on the IL with a hamstring injury, turns 30 in August 2028 and has four career MLB starts. If the 2027 season gets wiped out, Ryan, who had Tommy John in 2024, will be very old for prospect lists. When he’s been able to pitch, he’s been great with a 3.43 ERA and 255 K in 212.2 innings in the minors over more than 50 starts, but he has thrown over 100 innings in a season just once.
Smith is 21 and pitching in A-ball, though he did recently get moved to High-A. He has some big strikeout upside, but also some pretty clear control concerns. He’s young, a long way away, and was a high school arm taken in the third round in 2023, so who knows what he will become.
Detroit’s chances to make the playoffs dropped by about 5.5% at FanGraphs to around 21% and their odds to win the division took a modest hit as well, especially in concert with Chicago’s acquisition of Luis Castillo. Cleveland’s recent run of awful play hasn’t helped them much.
Trading Skubal essentially means trading Mize as well. One silver lining is that Jackson Jobe has made four rehab starts in the minors working his way back from Tommy John, so he’ll be an option before the end of the season. This is an org that badly needs pitching help in the upper levels of the minors, which is why they focused on Ryan. But, it is fair to wonder if this really is the best deal that they could have gotten.
What impact does the Skubal trade have on the Trade Deadline?
See, this, to me, is where it gets really interesting. Potential NL buyers have to be deterred at this point, as baseball is a high-variance sport and anything can happen, but teams like the Brewers, Cubs, Braves, and Phillies are all facing even more of a disadvantage. I don’t think that any of those teams now will be willing to give up top prospects to make a big push.
And Skubal going to the Dodgers could have an effect on the AL as well, given that even navigating the Junior Circuit playoff bracket means running into the new Evil Empire in baseball. With so many middling teams, I can’t see too many top prospects getting moved around. If anything, I would expect that we’re more likely to see teams try to make some swaps to help at the margins, but also move salary around with the impending lockout.
In my mind, Skubal to the Dodgers was the worst-case scenario for everybody involved, except for the Dodgers and their fans. It furthers the negative perception of the financial imbalance of the game, it cuts down on the chances of teams being aggressive at the Trade Deadline, and makes the postseason feel like a foregone conclusion, thus lowering interest levels for the rest of the season. All in all, it’s a bummer of a day and a deal for baseball fans and one that I think really waters down the Trade Deadline.
