Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Monday, July 20 racing card at Gulfstream Park, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Jades Jay (8th race)
EIghth Race
1. Jades Jay
2. Wannabeeloved
3. Brother Brad
JADES JAY has done little since the barn change, and team Van Winkle is having a tough meet so far. This guy has more than a few good races at Tampa, so we know this guy has some talent. What if his last two starts were just for connections to see what is what? Class drop should make all the difference, all for a horse that has zero listed works. WANNABEELOVED tries the dirt for only the third time. Current form is sharp, and this barn is 20% with their repeating winners. BROTHER BRAD has speed but can stalk. He draws outside and just likes it here. New barn is 22% off the claim.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other eight races on Monday’s Gulfstream Park card.
First Race
1. Prost
2. Cajun Gold
3. Sean Nos Dancing
PROST is by a 5% debut turf sire. His dam missed the board in her only turf start. One of three sibs won on the grass and is a multiple winner of 200K (won turf debut). Two other sibs hit the board on the weeds. This colt can fire fresh as he won his debut going a tough seven panels. His stakes try was poor, but perhaps something went awry, hence the time off. That race did come back key when 2 of 9 returned to win with figs of 87 and 73 (another finished 2nd with a 79 Beyer). The winner returned to win the Smarty Jones (250K purse). We like this barn on the grass and with their debut turf runners. CAJUN GOLD has won on this sod and has good speed. Class drop is easy to see. His last race came back key when 3 of 4 returned to win with Beyers of 89, 81, and 76 (another finished 2nd with a 75 Beyer). SEAN NOS DANCING is by a 13% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green, and this is her first grass foal. Works are solid. JAMALAMADINGDONG is by a 5% debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. Two sibs failed to hit the board on the green (limited starts though). GRAY ASTRAY is by a 6% debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced and this is her first grass foal.
Second Race
1. Velociraptor
2. Losmastix
3. Carcone
VELOCIRAPTOR is feeling great and goes for a top-shelf barn. He has improved his Beyer speed figure in four straight. He has yet to miss the exacta going a short sprint. LOSMASTIX puts three races together and drops in class. Race flow is OK as long as the 3 stays in. The last time this guy saw claimers, he broke his maiden in his second start. CARCONE has some solid figs. Second time with new barn is what we like best. Beaten favorite angle applies if you like that. This guy will sit early, so this rail draw is no big deal.
Third Race
1. Secane
2. Canton
3. Street Belle
SECANE won nicely in her debut and did so going a tough debut distance of seven panels. Connections tried nothing but stakes since even if some of those didn’t work out. This filly hit the gate two back and didn’t care for the turf in her most recent. Time to regroup and start over with this six furlong dirt sprint. As expected, works are quite nice. We should see the real deal today. CANTON has speed, but so do two others. Good horses often just find a way to win. Time to test that theory. STREET BELLE just ran much better and did so from off the pace. Not sure this filly is fast enough to win, but her trip might be best, so perhaps a slice of the trifecta pie all at a good price.
Fourth Race
1. Peacethrustrength
2. Hillbilly Bob
3. Longbranch Lou
PEACETHRUSTRENGTH was off slowly in his first two starts and then broke awkwardly in his third start. He still broke his maiden in one of those. His last two races are just much better and with good starts. We like how this guy switched to the turf for the first time in his most recent and still ran well. Gap in works from June 13th to July 5th isn’t our favorite but works still plentiful for his return. HILLBILLY BOB might find the front end and laugh all the way to the bank. Stick ’em up. LONGBRANCH LOU is feeling great and often gets a ton of play. He has hit the exacta on this surface in 8 of 11 starts. As usual, the one to beat.
Fifth Race
1. Sum of Success
2. Strike
3. Mister Morgs
SUM OF SUCCESS is by a 13% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). His dam went 13-1-5-1 and earned 78K. Both sibs beat winners and earned 51K (won 2YO debut) and 139K. That gate work on June 26th might tip hand. STRIKE has run well in two of three starts. He ran great in both starts on the pine. Race experience can not be overrated. MISTER MORGS is by a 12% debut sire. His dam went 5-0-4-0 for 122K (nice), and this is her first foal. A 21% 1st start barn calls the shots. TOMMY’S MIRACLE is by a 20% debut sire. His dam went 14-2-3-0 and earned 72K. This is her first foal. THANKS CHARLIE is by a 36% debut sire. His dam went 1-0-0-0. One of three sibs won (a multiple winner of 23K). HIDDEN DANGER is by a 12% debut sire. His dam went 10-2-2-1 and banked 47K. This is her first foal. PONCHE JAK is by a 6% debut sire. His dam went 1-0-0-0, and this is her first foal. EZ DAVID is by a 10% debut sire. His dam went 6-1-1-0 for 43K, and this is her first foal. JET FUEL is by a 10% debut sire. His dam went 16-2-3-4 and earned 74K. This is her first foal.
Sixth Race
1. Chayton 2. Paris Surprise 3. Assertiveness
CHAYTON won two of three at Turfway and that tells us something, as that is a tough track to beat. A bad start cost him three back. Recent turf starts are better, and take note of that poor start two back. Team Fawkes take over. They are 32% with new runners. We love it that they want the grass today. Local works are well spaced all for a 3YO that takes on older for the first time. Connections could have found an easier spot but don’t. Maybe that tells us what they think of this colt. PARIS SURPRISE exits a key race where 3 of 7 returned to win with figs of 93, 85, and 80. Hard to knock a turf horse that has hit the exacta on the green in 7 of 12 starts. This guy draws inside and has some tactical speed to help the trip. ASSERTIVENESS has gotten turf figs of 80 or better twice. Perhaps something went awry in his last race. Connections could have returned this guy in claimers but opt for a spot where they can’t lose him. Team Joseph is 24% off a long layoff.
Seventh Race
1. Viscountess Red
2. Lady Chance
3. My Girl Nina
VISCOUNTESS RED has only tried seven panels once but ran OK up at Tampa. Perhaps two turns was too much two back. This filly broke 8th of 10 in her most recent and then spit the bit. Those last two races darken her form and help the price. She draws best today as she adds a full furlong, all with tactical speed in tow. LADY CHANCE might be better on the dirt. She gets in light and goes for a barn that is 14% off the claim. MY GIRL NINA is the other O’Connell horse. Toss those synth tries two and three back and she looks much better. Her best efforts have come on the front end, and now she adds 1 1/2 furlongs, which should help there.
Ninth Race
1. Quizler
2. Eddie the Great
3. Smart Striker
QUIZLER is back under the care of team Chapman. This pair teamed up to win in their only race together four back. That was a Beyer top of 85, and it came on this sod. Isn’t this guy just better going two turns on the green? This colt sheds 8 points with the apprentice up. EDDIE THE GREAT just missed when last seen returning off a layoff and it came on the grass at Tampa. Team Bennett are 29% off a long layoff. Lots and lots of works to help the cause. SMART STRIKER can pop a good one on the grass here or there. He won at 12-1 four back on the sod at Tampa is you don’t believe us. Recent starts are just OK but do help the price. A return to the green is what we like best. BATTLE OF DOVER exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 80 and 78 (another finished 2nd with a 77 Beyer).
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