WNBA Picks
We’ve got just two more days of WNBA games before the All-Star break takes place, beginning with a four-game slate on Monday and a monster (and unheard of) six-game slate on Wednesday. Today, we’ve got the Toronto Tempo hosting the Las Vegas Aces, the Dallas Wings hosting the NY Liberty, the Minnesota Lynx visiting the Seattle Storm, and the Washington Mystics again taking on the Golden State Valkyries in California. Here are the TSI projections for Monday.
Toronto Tempo (+11.5) vs. Las Vegas Aces, O/U 183.5
Toronto has not looked like itself lately, playing six points worse than its season average over the last three games, while Vegas has been outplaying its season average by 2.5 points lately. TSI projects Aces -7.5 with a total of 180 in this game, and I’m playing the total and not the side. I like the Under here, as Tempo home games have been about three points lower scoring than their road games, and the Tempo’s last six games (all at home) have averaged just 175 points. I’d lean Toronto, but they’ve been worse at home and Vegas has been six points better on the road this season, so I’m not going to make it a play.
Bet: Under 183.5 (Play to 182.5)
Dallas Wings (+3.5) vs. NY Liberty, O/U 173.5
Paige Bueckers left Sunday’s game with an injury, but there has been no word about whether she’ll play in this game. I’ll evaluate this game assuming she’s in (because there’s virtually no data without her, so that’s all we have to go on). The regression data definitely favors the Liberty here, as Dallas has been about a point better than their season average lately, but New York has been seven points below their season average, so they’re definitely due for a bounceback. I thought that was going to come Saturday at Indiana, but they got their brains beat in instead. TSI projects Liberty -0.5 with a total of 173, but with Paige questionable-ish, I wouldn’t rush to bet Dallas just yet either. I think I’m going to pass on this game, but the regression trends point to New York and Over here.
Seattle Storm (+10.5) vs. Minnesota Lynx, O/U 174.5
To me, this game is actually more interesting than it looks on the surface. Minnesota has not been playing its best, about 3.5 points worse than its season average, while Seattle has been a point better than its season average lately and is eight points better at home. TSI projects Minnesota -10 with a total of 169.5, but these teams are both running red hot right now in terms of the over/under trends, so I’m going to pass on this one as well because I’d want to bet the Over here, but TSI is just so much lower than the number I better stay away.
Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) vs. Washington Mystics, O/U 146.5
If you follow me on X, you know my current disdain for the Mystics due to how they perform when I do/don’t bet on them. They’re supremely inconsistent. The regression numbers again give them a three-point edge in this matchup, and TSI projects Valkyries -9 with a total of 150. I certainly don’t want to bet an Over between these two teams right now either, as their trends are 18 points below their averages lately, so it would be Under or nothing here and I don’t want to deviate that far from TSI. The home/road splits slightly favor Golden State but not substantially, so given TSI is at -9, I’m just going to pass on this as well.
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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