Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 20. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Monday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Monday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Ryan Weathers Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+112) vs. Pirates
Pirates at Yankees – 7:05 pm ET
This season, Weathers is averaging 7.2 strikeouts per game when facing bottom-10 strikeout rate teams. That number also happens to go up to 8.0 strikeouts per game when facing bottom-five strikeout rate teams, and that’s exactly where this Pittsburgh team falls. The Pirates have a K rate of 25.8% against lefties this season, and they also have a whiff percentage of 28.4%. That second number is the worst in baseball against southpaws. This is just a good matchup for Weathers to come out and flash his swing-and-miss stuff.
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110) vs. Dodgers
Dodgers at Phillies – 7:10 pm ET
Emmet Sheehan comes into this outing with a road ERA of 5.05, so he has been very hittable when traveling this season. With that in mind, grabbing a lefty bat makes a lot of sense in this game. Well, at a reasonable number, I’ll take Harper. The superstar is 0 for 3 with two strikeouts against Sheehan in his career, but that’s not a big enough sample to turn me off. Harper is simply too good against righties to allow three at-bats to derail a play. He’s averaging 2.6 HRR per game against righties this season.
Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140) vs. White Sox
White Sox at Rangers – 8:05 pm ET
DeGrom comes into this start having racked up at least seven strikeouts in five straight outings, so he was hot before the All-Star break. Well, the Texas ace now gets a crack at a Chicago team that has a strikeout rate of 23.5% this season — and a whiff percentage of 26.9%. This is a matchup in which you’d expect him to get rolling, and that’s especially true with this start coming at home. DeGrom is averaging 7.6 strikeouts per game at Globe Life Field this year.
Additional Picks
Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) vs. Orioles
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-122) vs. Braves
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+113) vs. Royals
Curtis Mead Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-109) vs. Rockies
George Kirby Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120) vs. Reds
Kyle Leahy Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts (+178 – 0.5 units) vs. Angels
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Trevor McDonald Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+119) vs. Royals
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 5.08 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -293 — a +28.9% edge to the Over.
Jared Young Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+108) vs. Brewers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.42 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -314 — a +27.8% edge to the Over.
Jonatan Clase Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-129) vs. Rays
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.67 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -429 — a +24.8% edge to the Over.
