UFC 333 Predictions:
This week, the UFC competes in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, with an early-morning fight card kicking off at 5 a.m. PT, prelims at 7 a.m. PT, and the main card beginning at 9 a.m. PT.
This event is scheduled for 14 battles. All but one are men’s competitions, and five of the fights will be waged with men weighing 170 pounds or more, where finishing potential is highest.
The Muslim world is highlighted when the organization travels to Abu Dhabi, where wrestling-based fighters can exercise their craft without booing or degradation from the organization and the fans, because in Abu Dhabi, wrestling, grappling, and submission specialization is appreciated and encouraged!
Last week, we went down swinging with Joaquin Buckley, who simply can’t break into the welterweight top ten. Buckley’s one-dimensional fight game will limit his rise into the division’s top 10, no question.
Digital results 2026: 21-17-1 +6.82u
Alexander Volkanovski -108 vs. Movsar Evloev -108
Featherweight Championship (145 pounds)
Evloev is the division’s number one contender and has been for some time. He’s 20-0 professionally and has excelled in his 10 UFC fights.
The issue, if any, with Evloev is that his dominant fight style is founded in smothering, forward-pressing, pressure wrestling/grappling, which is something that makes the UFC brass bristle …unless, of course, the fight slate happens to be taking place in any Muslim region, where grappling/wrestling aptitude is appreciated.
Evloev is large for the division. He is extremely strong for the weight class, and this fight will justify his evolution into a dominant featherweight. Evloev will hold several advantages in this battle.
He will be a couple of inches taller and hold a two-inch reach advantage. He is also six years younger. Per Reed Kuhn’s book Fightnomics, a six-year youth advantage equates to roughly a 63% win rate, as youth is a key factor when handicapping fights.
Evloev’s exposure to criticism revolves around the fact that he is a decision machine. Over his 20 professional fights, he has finished opponents only seven times, and in his 10 UFC bouts, he has won by decision in every single fight! Evloev’s lack of organizational support is a direct result of his fighting style.
Alexander Volkanovski has overshadowed the great featherweight champions (Holloway and Aldo) that competed prior to his reign and has established himself as the modern model of supremacy. At 38, Volkanovski has shown little erosion in his fighting skill. In this fight, he takes on a younger, larger, motivated world-class pressure wrestler who will have everything going for him from home crowd to size, youth, and, in my judgment, focus.
Once this fight begins, I look for Evloev to immediately set up his wrestling and try to engulf the champion with his smothering attack. Volkanovski’s job will be to discourage Evloev from entering the pocket by blistering him with strikes, kicks, elbows, and perhaps even his own takedowns to confound and create hesitation in the aggressive Russian wrestler.
Evloev’s youth, strength, reach, height, and the fact that the organization made him wait so long before recognizing his fighting prowess all lead me to believe that after five full rounds of competition Saturday, Evloev will walk away with the featherweight belt. Whether he is aided by home cooking, I cannot say, but it does not help Evloev that this fight is taking place in the UAE.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -235
Grant Dawson -125 vs. Nurullo Aliev +105
Lightweight (155 pounds)
This fight will be wildly popular in Abu Dhabi—an intense, chest-to-chest, world-class grappling/wrestling style the UFC doesn’t encourage.
World-class grappling/wrestling absolutely belongs in the UFC. However, with the organization selling its soul to encourage finishes/KOs we will only be able to witness these types of world-class grappling matches in the Muslim world, as the UFC is at least consistent in trying to serve its local clientele with the fighting passion it is used to participating in.
Aliev is a 32-year-old Tajikistani mixed martial artist by name only. Aliev’s grappling and wrestling are world-class, and his striking is as pedestrian as any lightweight in the organization.
In Aliev’s last bout, he held his opponent down with his dynamic wrestling without dealing any damage for 15 full minutes. Aliev won without doing anything but controlling his opponent from the top position.
Aliev is strong and will have the crowd behind him in this fight, but Aliev steps up a class here.
Grant Dawson is as gifted a grappler/wrestler as anyone in the division, and possibly the UFC.
He’s strong as a bull, deeply experienced, has competed against the division’s elite, and is well-versed in mixed martial arts weaponry. Honestly, Dawson’s only task here is to protect a chin that’s susceptible to getting chipped.
Once this fight begins, it will be Aliev’s wrestling/grappling pitted against Dawson’s length and grappling.
Where Dawson trains (ATT in Florida), the diversity of athletes he competes against in training, his experience, and the level of competition he faces together give me enough confidence to say Dawson’s opening line price of -160 is more in line with how I handicap this bout.
A close, competitive roll on the canvas for 15 minutes will be enough for Dawson to overcome Aliev in technical wrestling, unrelenting cardio, and, to the small extent we may see it, striking. I do not believe Aliev has the technical striking or power to catch Dawson. Even if he could, his striking is not precise or powerful enough to harm him.
Dawson will dominate the Tajikistani fighter in his home octagon and in front of his hometown fans in a closely contested bout. Dawson has all the advantage, and the only threat to him in this fight is whether the wafting scent of home cooking raises its ugly head.
UFC 333 Best Bet: Grant Dawson -125
UFC 333 Best Bet: Goes to Split or Majority Decision +500 (.25u)
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -250
On Friday, the ‘Bout business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms and on GambLou.com. Access all my final releases there. Enjoy the fights, and thank you for reading!
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