Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Saturday, October 17 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Deep Flame (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Deep Flame
2. Roscoe’s Brother
3. Dr. Kapur
DEEP FLAME’s performance would have won nearly all the recent renewals of the G1 Allen Jerkens – he just ran into the freak of nature named Englishman. Local Knowledge came into the Jerkens following a good win in the G2 Amsterdam, and Deep Flame beat him by almost eight lengths. Love the way the stable has gradually moved the horse up in class, and Deep Flame has responded to every challenge. Gilded Bandit went the wrong way this summer and fall, but he was in roaring form when he beat a less-than-fully-formed Deep Flame over this surface in April. Seven weeks to recover from the Jerkens, and plenty of speed to get over into a good stalking position from this wide draw. Even in a large field, though, he could be odds-on. Who’s the second-most likely winner of the race? I couldn’t say! Looks on paper like ROSCOE’S BROTHER is drawn both outside and inside serious pace players, but his gate speed in the N1X allowance race last out was excellent, and I wonder if he doesn’t outfoot them all and make the front. Has pretty much the same form as Dr. Venkman, who nearly won the 2023 Perryville for this barn. DR. KAPUR once was a front-running sprinter but somehow has become a one-run closing sprinter. He did make good late ground last out at Parx, but that race was falling apart to some extent. Travels with his head held kind of high, and so far has been too slow, but the right sort to pick up some pieces and get into the top three.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Saturday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Heartily
2. Trouble Time
3. Our Standard
HEARTILY has four layoff lines and five races, and has been trending the wrong direction since his first start. Also – that first start came at the KEE fall meet a year ago. Will he run back to that? Almost certainly not. Does he need to hit that level to defeat $20K maidens? Absolutely not. Yes, entered to be sold, but think he wins in the process. Not saying the work videos blew me away – but they’re adequate. I actually liked TROUBLE TIME to win the MSW on Sept. 16 at Churchill – he didn’t show much. He’s four races into his cycle with this start, has six races that fit the spot, and unlike the pricey Heartily shows a relatively modest $50K purchase price – and yet I trust Heartily more to deliver here. OUR STANDARD entered well below his talent level in the romping FG $15K debut win in December – something similar might actually be in play here.
Second Race
1. Sailor’s Dream
2. Queens Ambition
3. Absolute Lea W
The sample size for W Ward-trained second-time starters going turf to dirt and MSW to maiden-claiming is small but very strong. Expand the sample to include all second-timers going turf to dirt in maiden races – off the charts success. SAILOR’S DREAM has typically inscrutable Ward KEE workouts but probably is very, very well meant, and at least showed speed in the KD debut. No work video for debuting QUEENS AMBITION (how much are you really going to see from a $30K maiden?) but some quick clockings and a good pattern. Homebred by a $5k (advertised!) stud probably entered to win first time out. ABSOLUTE LEA W abysmal last time but only needs to run back to her debut – winner of that race well above par for the level – to make some hay here.
Third Race
1. Lord Majesty
2. Doctor Jeff
3. Dancin for Gold
Young trainer C Milligan had a KEE winner on Wednesday and has been consistently live for several months in KY. Ran out three wins off the claim from LORD MAJESTY over the summer, then wisely gave him a rest to come back for a fall-winter campaign. 6 1/2 furlongs might be ideal for him. We’re talking about a fairly lightly raced 4yo – why can’t he sustain what he got going over the summer? DOCTOR JEFF got eligible for this $12.5K starter with the Sept. 23 class drop and turf to dirt move – only he’s not eligible for the connections who made that move. Wonder if trainer I Bahena, who does well off the claim, snapped up a good one. Loads of grass and synthetic showings that fit the spot. See that Lone Star race over 7f that DANCIN FOR GOLD ran? I fear that’s how things go for him over 6 1/2 at Keeneland. Obviously fast enough and in the right spot if he can see out the trip.
Fourth Race
1. Gray Eminence
2. Sucker for Looks
3. Majorbrowniepoints
Perhaps the good win for the French imports A Delacour and F Prat with Overtime Rules still is coloring my thinking, but while there are no work videos for first-time GRAY EMINENCE, the work pattern and entire vibe holds appeal. Delacour’s firsters in turf routes don’t win that frequently but often deliver contending performances. I’ll guess this is a live one. SUCKER FOR LOOKS really launched when he found his footing debuting in a KD turf sprint. Long way from that one-turn race with undulations and a huge sweeping turn to a route over a conventional course, but I’d guess what he showed at KD translates to KEE. MAJORBROWNIEPOINTS stuck on the AE list, and same questions apply as with Sucker for Looks (only with a worse post), but among those that’ve started, he’s run the best race.
Fifth Race
1. Rockies Balboa
2. Jefferson Street
3. Creole Chrome
ROCKIES BALBOA has three wins from his last 10 starts, but I couldn’t support him off any of that form. It’s his race 11 back, in what I termed the best 2yo maiden of the 2025 KEE fall meet, that stamps him a potential winner – that and work video suggesting he’s coming to this KEE fall start in good form. JEFFERSON STREET third back from a long layoff for a very patient barn theoretically should run his best race since returning from the better part of TWO YEARS away from the races. Really only needs to jump up one notch to contend – but also has never been a six-furlong horse. No doubt CREOLE CHROME got back on track with a good third in the Harrods Creek following the IND Derby dud, but he led on a slow pace going 7f and the race dynamics here figure considerably different.
Sixth Race
1. Decimation
2. Fair Chase
3. Capitola
DECIMATION already has taken three losses, and has been pace-and-fade in all of them – not normally the kind of horse I’d gravitate toward in a KEE 2yo MSW. But he does come out of a good Saratoga maiden, and I liked the video of his KEE workout better than any of the other work videos I could find for horses in this race. Think he’s improving this time. FAIR CHASE did almost all the work toward his debut over TP Tapeta but got in two KEE works, the latter of which is on video. Under some urging but finished quite strong while pulling well clear of his company. Can’t say I got a great handle on the CAPITOLA work video, but it didn’t knock my socks off. Trainer B Cox, $400K Vekoma firster – obviously could do some damage.
Eighth Race
1. Amber Cascade
2. Caviar Breakfast
3. Hear the Queen
Any one of AMBER CASCADE’s four turf races from 2025 – she was switched from dirt last year – would probably win this, and while she ran well over 11 furlongs, her one-mile try coming back from a layoff, was almost as strong. Sure, something that lowers her baseline might’ve precipitated the long layoff, but that’s still TBD, because her first start back came on dirt, and her second over a KD course that many horses don’t handle at all. Worked back three times from that, which is a plus, though a wet course would be a new experience for the mare. CAVIAR BREAKFAST, on the other hand, won over “good” Keeneland turf last fall, and “good” often means something more like “yielding” these days. Clearly “needed” her KEE comeback in the spring, and in retrospect the 11 and 12-furlong tries this form cycle were too far. That leaves runs last out and three back that solidly fit this spot. HEAR THE QUEEN ran well enough last out to suggest she’s at least the same horse she was before an eight-month layoff. The two pre-break wins did come under very favorable circumstances, and I wonder how she’ll cope with more laboring going.
Ninth Race
1. With a Kiss
2. Conceit
3. Movie Night
Can’t really imagine WITH A KISS being as high as 20-1, but can imagine her upsetting the Raven Run. If this were John Doe shipping the filly off a mere two starts, and with no stakes experience; and if we didn’t have workout video, WAK might look like an easy toss. But trainer T Pletcher sports a grand record in Keeneland dirt stakes, and we do have several workout videos leading into WAK’s race in September, her first since a one-start 2-year-old campaign last fall. She kind of looks like a beast. Has more than held her own breezing with some good horses. Star Actress won’t be 30-1 in this race, and she had a major recency and seasoning edge on WAK when they met in the SAR N1X allowance. WAK opened a clear lead past the furlong grounds, seemed to idle as SA revved up with a good run, but immediately responded when she felt the filly come to her. With a decent break, she could get an ideal trip stalking Mashallah and Movie Night. CONCEIT did get a great setup last time in a very salty renewal of the Dogwood, but I still give her credit for reeling in G1 Test winner Explora and MOVIE NIGHT. Kind of torn – did that race, her third this season, max her out? Or does Conceit still have latitude to improve? Leaning toward the latter. Movie Night wouldn’t be in this race if the Dogwood had obviously knocked her out – but sometimes that doesn’t manifest until a horse gets into the heat of battle. At her best, I think she stands a good chance of sitting just outside morning-line favorite Mashallah and wearing her down. At twice the price, sure, I’d guess Mashallah can level up here, but as something like the 8-5 favorite? Standing against.
Tenth Race
1. Shirley Ann
2. Ms. Jay Dee Em
3. Mechaya
SHIRLEY ANN will win this if she “runs her race” – I was trying to parse her performance Aug. 1 in the Hummingbird at Ellis Park. The ground was pretty soft that day, and it probably will be again Saturday at Keeneland, which would be a concern, but Shirley Ann also raced sans Lasix in the Hummingbird and gets Lasix again now. Then I realized – doesn’t really matter! Even her performance in that race slots her as a prime win contender in an N1X that I think came up fairly soft, especially considering the number of entrants. Confession: Never had heard of the sire Tunwoo before MS. JAY DEE EM showed up at Kentucky Downs. Obscure lineage aside, Ms. Jay Dee Em ran a legitimately good race, cut back in trip from a blah debut around two turns at IND. Don’t think she loved the KD course, either, judging by the bobbling and minor missteps around the turn, but she made a strong run to the lead after getting a great inside trip, showing both enough pace and sufficiently rapid acceleration to make one think the turn-back from 6 1/2 to 5 1/2 furlongs won’t prove her undoing. Poor MECHAYA – one case of bad luck after another. With her propensity for trouble, you’d have to think more is coming since she’s drawn on the rail in a bulky field.
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