NFL First Touchdown
Off we go into another week of NFL action. This will be the sixth week of 18 scheduled for the regular season, so most teams will be one-third of the way through. The First Touchdown Scorer spreadsheet is updated and I’m ready to try and isolate the proper players for Week 6.
Before digging into Week 6, let’s look back at Week 5. I like to track first team TDs by position to see if there are any league-wide trends we can pick up on in terms of red-zone usage. The number in parentheses is how many we’ve had this season by position.
QB: 1 (10)
RB: 13 (58)
WR: 8 (55)
TE: 6 (22)
D/ST: 1 (3)
No TD: 1 (10)
Some housekeeping here, as I had to add one to the RB total for the season and subtract one from the WR total as I erroneously had Emanuel Wilson down as a WR in Week 4, an error I found because he had Seattle’s first TD again in Week 5.
Some new names were added to the three first team TD list and a couple guys are now up to four.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 4 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 4 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 3 | 3 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 3 | 3 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 3 | 1 |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA) | 3 | 1 |
| Jaxson Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Denzel Boston (CLE) | 3 | 0 |
Teams had a very high success rate in the red zone in Week 5, but also the fewest number of red-zone trips for a week this season. Of course, we did start bye weeks last week, so we had two fewer teams on the field. This week, there are four teams on byes. Here’s the red-zone success spreadsheet.
After back-to-back weeks with seven first-possession TDs, there were nine in Week 5. We now have 39 first-possession TDs for the season, with 10-6-7-7-9 from Weeks 1 through 5.
This is helpful info for the First Touchdown Scorer market, but also when betting first quarters and first halves. Some coaches are better with the scripted drive than others. Also, I track whether or not a team scored on its first possession in the First Touchdown Scorer spreadsheet, put together by our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak, who did this article the first few seasons for us.
2026 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Jaguars | 5/5 (100%) |
| Packers | 5/5 (100%) |
| 49ers | 4/5 (80%) |
| Colts | 4/5 (80%) |
| Patriots | 4/5 (80%) |
| Rams | 4/5 (80%) |
| Panthers | 3/4 (75%) |
| Bengals | 3/5 (60%) |
| Cardinals | 3/5 (60%) |
| Cowboys | 3/5 (60%) |
| Falcons | 3/5 (60%) |
| Jets | 3/5 (60%) |
| Raiders | 3/5 (60%) |
| Steelers | 3/5 (60%) |
| Texans | 3/5 (60%) |
| Chiefs | 2/4 (50%) |
| Bears | 2/5 (40%) |
| Commanders | 2/5 (40%) |
| Eagles | 2/5 (40%) |
| Ravens | 2/5 (40%) |
| Saints | 2/5 (40%) |
| Seahawks | 2/5 (40%) |
| Titans | 2/5 (40%) |
| Bills | 1/5 (20%) |
| Broncos | 1/5 (20%) |
| Browns | 1/5 (20%) |
| Buccaneers | 1/5 (20%) |
| Chargers | 1/5 (20%) |
| Dolphins | 1/5 (20%) |
| Giants | 1/5 (20%) |
| Lions | 1/5 (20%) |
| Vikings | 1/5 (20%) |
The biggest development is that we no longer have an 0-for, as every team has scored at least one TD before their opponents this season. The Jaguars and Packers remained perfect, but the Colts dropped to 80% after failing to score the game’s first TD. The Broncos were our last remaining holdout. Sean Payton took over the play-calling duties and they broke the bagel. Maybe a good sign for them on Thursday night.
This is the last week I’ll leave 2025 in here.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 15/17 (88.2%) |
| Seahawks | 15/20 (75%) |
| Jaguars | 13/18 (72.2%) |
| Eagles | 12/18 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Packers | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Rams | 12/20 (60%) |
| Bucs | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Giants | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Broncos | 11/19 (57.9%) |
| Browns | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Cowboys | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Ravens | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| 49ers | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Bears | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Bills | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Texans | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Steelers | 9/18 (50%) |
| Bengals | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Dolphins | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Chargers | 8/18 (44.4%) |
| Chiefs | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Falcons | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Panthers | 7/18 (38.9%) |
| Cardinals | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Titans | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Vikings | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Commanders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Raiders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Jets | 3/17 (17.6%) |
| Saints | 3/17 (17.6%) |
Some nuggets from Week 5:
- The only offensive player to score the first team TD for the Falcons remains Bijan Robinson, as they’ve had a No TD game and Jessie Bates had the lone D/ST first TD last week
- The Cardinals, Bears, Broncos, Texans, Chiefs, Raiders, Patriots, Giants, Eagles, and Titans are the only teams without a multi-time first team TD scorer
- The Browns, Broncos, Lions, Rams, Vikings, Saints, Eagles, and Titans are the only teams without a first-possession TD
- All five Raiders first team TDs have come on passes, 3 TE and 2 WR
- The Bengals and Vikings are the only other teams without a first team TD from a RB, but the Vikings also have two games with zero TDs
The 2025 percentages have been dropped, as just the 2026 numbers appear in the game list. By the way, the link directs you to the Matchup Page for that game on our website.
With that, let’s get to the Week 6 action and look at some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible
NFL Week 6 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2026
Seahawks (40%) at Broncos (20%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
—
Texans (60%) vs. Jaguars (100%) (London) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
—
Bears (40%) at Falcons (60%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Panthers (75%) at Eagles (40%)
Steelers (60%) at Buccaneers (20%)
—
Cardinals (60%) at Rams (80%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
—
Chargers (20%) at Chiefs (50%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
—
Cowboys (60%) at Packers (100%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
—
Commanders (40%) at 49ers (80%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 6 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor +265, Tyler Warren +900
Not going to beat around the bush at all here. The Colts are really good at this and these are their two most common first team TD scorers. Through five games this season, Taylor has two and Warren has two. Last season, Taylor had five and Warren had three. Alec Pierce also had three, all of them coming from Weeks 13-18, but he’s on IR. Maybe Keenan Allen will become that guy, and he does have one already, but I’ll go with the easy choices here.
The Titans are 8-for-22 over the last two seasons, while the Colts are 19-for-22 in scoring the first TD of the game. I’ll take my chances there and with the two most likely candidates.
New England Patriots: Hunter Henry +950, DeMario Douglas +1200
Drake Maye has 24 pass attempts in the red zone this season. Combined, Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, and Corey Kiner have nine rush attempts and three pass targets. Frankly, I don’t mind Kiner at +2500 here this week with Henderson dealing with a sprained ankle.
But, it’ll be more common targets in Henry and Douglas. Those two combined for nine first team TDs over 20 games for the Patriots and backup TE Austin Hooper even had a couple. This season, the Patriots have had four different first team TD scorers, but one was backup TE Eli Raridon to open the season. Douglas had the first TD last week and Henry has gotten more looks than Raridon since Week 2.
Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson +950, Matthew Golden +1100
Christian Watson has already caught three first team TDs for the Packers, but Golden actually has more red-zone targets than him on the season. Why not look at the Houston native and former Texas Longhorn to get the first TD grab here? Golden has five catches on eight targets, while Watson has five catches on seven targets. Golden has two TD and Watson has three.
But, I also can’t leave Watson off the list. Not only does he have three this season, but the four that he had last season, including the playoff game against the Bears, all came Week 11 or later. In other words, he’s had seven of the last 14 for the Packers in the first TD department. Also, the Packers are 5-for-5 this season and were 11-for-18 in each of the last two seasons.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season.
