Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, September 10 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Endrush (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Endrush
2. Fools Rush In
3. Love a Warrior
Can see from the work video at KEE – watched one with him on the inside of a lapped-on mate, another where he broke off many lengths behind target that he inhaled — why J Ortiz winds up on first-timer ENDRUSH. Has a much better draw than the debuter who will be bet more heavily, FOOLS RUSH IN, and from what I can see looks like he might be the better horse. Fools Rush In has worked strongly enough, just not the prettiest horse in action (that head!) and took the worst of it at the draw – as the likely solid favorite. LOVE A WARRIOR forced into a pace battle breaking from rail in his debut – couldn’t quite keep up but held decently and should have gotten quite a lot out of that race.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other seven races on Thursday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Stirrup
2. Maddy Mania
3. Shinobu
Didn’t realize until recently just how many of trainer E Kenneally’s young horses either RNA’d at a sale or were withdrawn from one. Trains for some breeders who mainly sell but will keep a horse to race if need be – a horse like STIRRUP, withdrawn from KEESEP yearling sale 2025. No work video but nothing at all wrong with the pattern and could go a little overlooked. MADDY MANIA not away well, just kind of ran around out there while 27-1 facing MSWs in debut. Not like they’re totally giving up on the horse for $50K, and sharp second-out improvement on the drop seems possible. SHINOBU flopped on grass last time, much better on dirt in debut. First time for tag and clearly the key is breaking well and getting to the front from rail draw.
Second Race
1. Hollybygolly 2. Belle Ofthe Dance 3. Lockdownyourtown
HOLLYBYGOLLY three turf routes, one dirt route, one synthetic route, two synthetic sprints: The synthetic route was good, but she kind of barely got a mile there, and both her synthetic sprints saw her at the peak of her powers. Getting at the fact this filly might want to sprint and never has gotten a chance to do so on dirt – until now. I think of Yaupon as a sire of one-turn dirt horses. Couple work videos from KEE – not bad, not bad. Class relief on the barn change and back from the layoff. Seems a little sneaky but suspect she takes some action. BELLE OFTHE DANCE no match for LOCKDOWNYOURTOWN last time, but that just means she has latitude to jump back to her better form, where Lockdown will be fortunate, as the favorite, to merely maintain right now.
Third Race
1. Cruisin in Harmony
2. Marblehead
3. Elewene
Tough race. The Fairmount Flash CRUISIN IN HARMONY actually done nothing wrong in her three starts, and last time handled a ship to Iowa and a sloppy track in solid stakes showing. Sat off the pace there while outside and in the clear – can she do so from the rail draw while eating dirt? Maybe? MARBLEHEAD made a nice turn move between horses and sustained her energy to the finish improving markedly from first to second start. Was here win any worse than shorter priced ELEWENE’s, which came at the same class level? Marblehead has gotten more time between starts, perhaps has more upside at more value.
Fourth Race
1. Honest Truth
2. Prestissimo
3. Flip Flop Freak
No work video for debuting HONEST TRUTH since he went straight to Ellis to start breezing and has trained there into his first start. Good times, FWIW, and long, solid pattern. Outside draw a plus, and morning-line, at least, expect he won’t draw a lot of betting – but he might. PRESTISSIMO definitely doesn’t have the most beautiful way of going but recent work video punctuated by the kind of gallop out one often sees from a live first-timer. FLIP FLOP FREAK, speaking of betting, heavily backed in his debut. Didn’t have a perfect trip, but felt about his race about the same as the recent 6f drill – namely, would’ve liked to have seen a little more.
Fifth Race
1. McSniper 2. Freaks Go 3. Tizianna
You see the 8-87 record this year from trainer A Shorter and you would not realize the very surprising success he’s had on a tough circuit the last few months. The barn’s surge, which is surprising given the long-term returns, kind of matches association with the ownership that claimed MCSNIPER out of her last start. The horse has contending form in any case, and should outrun her odds. FREAKS GO had the voided claim in May and hasn’t raced since, but runs back for that same price, rather than on a drop, which suggests she’s about the same horse. That horse had a bullet CDT work just after shipping in from CNL and is well drawn outside to use the speed. TIZIANNA’s incremental improvement through this form cycle interrupted by turf experiment last out. Blinkers on means I don’t know what, but she has a bounce-back race in her regardless.
Seventh Race
1. First Resort
2. Special Session
3. Bold Strength
Will give FIRST RESORT one more chance to get back to the pre-long-layoff form. Good enough turf-sprint comeback run two back, and noticed a lot of horses struggling over the Ellis surface this summer – maybe he was one of them. G2 winner over the CD main track. SPECIAL SESSION, mainly a synthetic horse during his career, ran good dirt races in his last two start and has the feel of a horse ready to step up at least half a level here. Meanwhile, likely favorite BOLD STRENGTH seems to have been running about as hard / well as he can, and not sure what the options are drawn in Post 2 as a pace player with other speed inside and out.
Eighth Race
1. National Eclipse
2. The Best Distance
3. Right On Right On
NATIONAL ECLIPSE below form on wet track two back, won at this level June 19 (and has plenty of form to validate that showing) – claimed, rested, and entered back aggressively for owner-trainer S Asmussen. THE BEST DISTANCE came all the way from Delaware for a $12.5K claimer?! J Ortiz takes the mount on a horse with clearly contending form and a favorable draw from which to deploy his speed. RIGHT ON RIGHT ON almost won an N1X allowance last out, albeit on a lesser circuit, and the $12.5K tag here is well over the $8K these connections paid several months ago.
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