The 2026 NFL Regular Season kicks off this week and bettors have 16 games to choose from. Let’s examine where early sharp money is leaning for a trio of Week 1 matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Buffalo Bills (-1, 44.5) at Houston Texans
The Bills finished 12-5 last season and oddsmakers expect another double-digit win campaign this year as their win total sits at 10.5 with the over juiced to -120 at DraftKings. Similarly, the Texans went 12-5 last year and their win total this season rests at 9.5 with the over heavily juiced to -146.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re hammering the Bills, as Buffalo is receiving 71% of spread bets at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving such heavy public affection we’ve seen Buffalo fall from -1.5 to -1.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already pounding Buffalo to begin with? Because respected sharp action has sided with the Texans at home, triggering sharp reverse line movement in Houston’s favor.
The Texans are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of Week 1 as Houston is only receiving 29% of spread bets at DraftKings.
Pros have also come down in favor of Houston winning straight up, as the Texans are receiving 33% of moneyline bets and 46% of moneyline dollars at Circa.
Week 1 dogs have gone 86-70 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2016.
C.J. Stroud has gone 14-10 ATS (58%) with a 13% ROI as a dog in his career, including 5-2 ATS (71%) as a home dog.
Those looking to go contrarian would be wise to shop around for a hook, as a few outlier shops are offering Texans +1.5 (-115 or -120) while the majority of the market is down to +1.
If bettors can find the hook, it also opens up Houston as an ideal “Wong” teaser candidate (+1.5 to +7.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-7, 49.5)
The Saints went 6-11 last season and oddsmakers expect them to improve this year as their win total rests at 7.5 with the over juiced to -120. Meanwhile, the Lions finished 9-8 last season and oddsmakers are expecting another strong performance as their win total sits at 10.5 with the over juiced to -115.
This line opened with Detroit listed as a 7-point home favorite.
The public expects Detroit to roll at home and 75% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Lions.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Detroit remain stagnant at -7. In fact, the market is even juicing up the Saints side (+7 at -115), with a few other books even inching down to 6.5.
Normally, if a team is getting such heavy action you would expect to see the line rise in their favor (think -7 to -7.5 or higher). The fact that this line hasn’t budged and instead has shown liability on the Saints’ side indicates a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement on New Orleans plus the points.
At DraftKings, New Orleans is only receiving 25% of spread bets but 38% of spread dollars, a super contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy split in their favor.
Week 1 dogs getting 6.5-points or more, like the Saints here, have gone 27-13 ATS (68%) with a 31% ROI since 2016.
Week 1 road dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 40-29 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2016.
If both teams missed the playoffs the previous season, as is the case here, the Week 1 road dog has gone 22-15 ATS (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2016.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 46.5)
The Packers finished 9-7-1 last season and oddsmakers expect another winning season for Green Bay as their win total for this year sits at 9.5 with the over juiced to -130 at DraftKings. Similarly, the Vikings went 9-8 last season and oddsmakers expect a similar performance this year as their win total rests at 8.5 with the over juiced to -120.
This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
This public thinks this line is way too short and 66% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing the Packers on the road.
However, despite Green Bay receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the line completely flip in favor of the Vikings, moving Minnesota from a 1.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite.
In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Minnesota at home.
At DraftKings, the Vikings are only receiving 34% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars. At Circa, Minnesota is taking in 32% of spread bets but 42% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of the home team.
Sharps have also looked to mitigate some risk and protect themselves in the event of a close game by playing Minnesota on the moneyline at -120.
At DraftKings, the Vikings are taking in 45% of moneyline bets and 65% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pro money banking on a straight up Minnesota victory.
