Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, September 8, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 55-24 SU for +21.96 units (ROI: 27.8%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-114 vs TB)
Trend: The last 12 games (100%, +12.00 units) of the Astros-Phillies series went Under the total
— The ROI on this trend is 100%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-PHI (o/u at 8.5)
* Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 219-167 (+27.41 units, ROI: 7.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-149 vs LAA)
* Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 364-320 (53.3%) for +26.81 units and an ROI of 3.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-124 vs NYM)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are just over the profitability line at 202-161 for +1.55 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+119 at PHI), DETROIT (-137 vs MIN), SEATTLE (-136 vs TEX), SAN FRANCISCO (-110 vs STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 88-130 for -46.04 units and an ROI of -21.1%. Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-114 vs TB)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle. For 2026, with a month left, they are now 142-213 start for -27.06 units (-7.6% ROI) after losing about 37 units over the 2 1/2 months. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, its usual territory, and continues to fall fast.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+267 at NYY), ATHLETICS (+153 vs TOR), WASHINGTON (+155 at SD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 95-54 for -25.05 units, ROI -16.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-340 vs COL), MILWAUKEE (-219 vs CHC), LA DODGERS (-329 vs CIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2025 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 290-357 for -30.55 units, and comes off a rough three-week stretch, giving back over 19 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+102 at BAL), NY METS (+103 at MIA), HOUSTON (+119 at PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (-110 vs STL)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 245-169 for +44.80 units, an ROI of +10.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-114 vs TB), ARIZONA (-120 at KC)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 153-174 for +1.96 units. However, it has lost -11.3 units over the last two months.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+155 at SD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -106 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 462-394 but for -92.54 units and an ROI of -10.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-114 vs TB)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 476-425 record for +44.18 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+113 at SEA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,228-2,109 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -273.33 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-145 vs PIT), NY METS (+103 at MIA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,298-2,881 (44.4%) for -270.66 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+120 at CWS), HOUSTON (+119 at PHI), LA ANGELS (+123 at BOS), WASHINGTON (+155 at SD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 685-572 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.8 units, for an ROI of 1.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-114 vs TB), SEATTLE (-136 vs TEX)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 364-320 (53.3%) for +26.81 units and an ROI of 3.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-124 vs NYM)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 116-167 SU (-24.35 units, ROI: -8.6%) as underdogs in the follow-up game since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+153 vs TOR)
* WATCH FOR SAN FRANCISCO vs STL (-110 CURRENTLY) *
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 55-24 SU for +21.96 units (ROI: 27.8%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-114 vs TB)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 339-348 run (+15.21 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON (+155 at SD)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams that have won their last three games and are road favorites versus an opponent with a losing record have gone 114-45 (+34.79 units, ROI: 21.9%) in their last 159 tries.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ARIZONA (-120 at KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 219-167 (+27.41 units, ROI: 7.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-149 vs LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 276-179 in their last 455 tries (+45.04 units, ROI: 9.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-149 vs LAA), LA DODGERS (-329 vs CIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-260 or more) have had their totals go Over at a 25-9-2 (73.5%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-LAD (o/u at 8)
Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-230 or more) have gone 54-13 SU (+20.17 units, ROI: 30.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-329 vs CIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 612-599 for +24.22 units, good for +2% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CINCINNATI +259 (+55 diff), COLORADO +267 (+50), HOUSTON +119 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SEATTLE -136 (+17 diff), MIAMI -124 (+15), SAN DIEGO -188 (+14), ATLANTA -114 (+12), BALTIMORE -123 (+11), DETROIT -137 (+11)
If you’re looking for something that has produced a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where, on Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 122-98 for +11.75 units and an ROI of 5.3%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: COL-NYY UNDER 8 (-0.7), CIN-LAD UNDER 8 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) NEW YORK-NL (66-78) at (902) MIAMI (72-73)
Trend: Sean Manaea’s teams are 11-14 (-7.76 units) when he starts against NL East opponents in last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+103 at MIA)
(903) CHICAGO-NL (81-64) at (904) MILWAUKEE (89-56)
Trend: Over the total is 30-13-2 (+15.70 units) when MIL faces left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5)
(907) ST LOUIS (72-73) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (60-85)
Trend: SF is 4-17 in the last 21 starts by Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-110 vs STL)
(909) CINCINNATI (69-75) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (87-57)
Trend: LAD is 27-46 (-24.19 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs CIN)
Trend: Tarik Skubal’s teams are 31-13 (+8.86 units) in his last 44 night-game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-329 vs CIN)
(911) CLEVELAND (73-72) at (912) BALTIMORE (70-75)
Trend: BAL is 18-6 (+13.16 units) with starter Brandon Young since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-123 vs CLE)
(913) MINNESOTA (68-76) at (914) DETROIT (66-78)
Trend: Over the total is 44-22-6 (+19.80 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-DET (o/u at 8)
(915) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-90) at (916) BOSTON (80-65)
Trend: LAA is 9-20 (-11.35 units) on the road in the -160 to +131 line range with starter Reid Detmers
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+123 at BOS)
Trend: Over the total is 14-5-1 (+8.75 units) in road games with lower totals (o/u <= 8) with starter Reid Detmers in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-BOS (o/u at 7.5)
(919) TEXAS (71-73) at (920) SEATTLE (67-77)
Trend: SEA is 33-58 (-27.91 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs TEX)
(923) COLORADO (55-88) at (924) NEW YORK-AL (81-62)
Trend: NYY is 19-7 (+7.78 units) versus opponents with a losing record with starter Cam Schlittler in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-340 vs COL)
(925) TAMPA BAY (85-58) at (926) ATLANTA (85-59)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 12-18 (-16.09 units) in his last 30 September/October starts
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-105 at ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 14-6 (+7.50 units) in Freddy Peralta’s last 20 road starts versus NL teams within line range of -300 to +112 since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-ATL (o/u at 8.5)
(927) ARIZONA (77-68) at (928) KANSAS CITY (64-81)
Trend: UNDER the total is 40-29-4 (+8.10 units) in AZ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-KC (o/u at 9)
(929) PITTSBURGH (71-73) at (930) CHICAGO-AL (75-68)
Trend: PIT is 33-49 (-26.31 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+120 at CWS)
Top series trends
Series #1: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee, Mon 9/7-Sun 9/9
Trend: Over the total is 17-10-1 (65.4%, +5.87 units) in the last 28 games of the Cubs-Brewers rivalry at Milwaukee
— The ROI on this trend is 21%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5)
Series #38: Houston at Philadelphia, Tue 9/8-Thu 9/10
Trend: The last 12 games (100%, +12.00 units) of the Astros-Phillies series have gone Under the total
— The ROI on this trend is 100%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-PHI (o/u at 8.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of noon ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-149 vs LAA), NY YANKEES (-340 vs COL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-145 vs PIT), MILWAUKEE (-219 vs CHC), LA DODGERS (-329 vs CIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): TEXAS (+113 at SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-340 vs COL), LA DODGERS (-329 vs CIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-143 vs HOU), NY YANKEES (-340 vs COL), ATLANTA (-114 vs TB), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-145 vs PIT), ARIZONA (-120 at KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season, when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since a lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-123 vs CLE), DETROIT (-137 vs MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season and a half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-ATH (o/u at 9.5)
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ATLANTA
Momentum after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 23-16 (59%) +5.19 units, ROI: 13.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-114 vs TB)
