Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Wednesday, September 9 racing card at Kentucky Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 11.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Jas (11th race)
Eleventh Race
1. Jas
2. Agate
3. How’s Al Today
JAS clearly needed his debut, and turned in a sharp opening-day performance over this distance. The trainer twice in the last three years has won this race with a horse making his second start of the KD season. Doubt he’s as high as the morning line. AGATE also very much “needed” his debut, and even so finished with good energy and galloped out in front while sprinting. Professional, solid maiden route win in his second start, and he’s primed to take another step forward. HOW’S AL TODAY won the KD race that the last two Asmussen-trained winners of this stake captured. I can’t really fault him, but not sure he’ll outstay Jas at a mile, and Jas has more speed.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other thirteen races on Wednesday’s Kentucky Downs card.
First Race
1. Golden Reveille
2. R Last Laugh
3. Tatiana
One work video for GOLDEN REVEILLE – Aug. 21 – showed me enough. Long, strong gallop out suggests she’s plenty fit. First-crop sire killing it with turf horses – though to be fair, it seems like he already has 500 different runners. R LAST LAUGH a relatively tricky debut trip, ran on late, and very well meant second time out. One work video for TATIANA, and her mate crapped out, making interpretation of it a little tricky, but thought she went well enough over the TP Tapeta.
Second Race
1. Social Deception
2. Bold Speaker
3. Showa
SOCIAL DECEPTION 14-1 on debut but ran like a well-prepared and very ready firster, bested by only one of 11 rivals, a first-time who’d worked notably well into his debut. That was on dirt, too, and this horse is, top and bottom, bred to be better on turf. BOLD SPEAKER in lone start done in by chasing leader who set a slow pace and could not quite be caught. How good that horse is – TBD. BS could be the chalk and not quite sold at expected odds. SHOWA, considering connections and the $1 million purchase price, didn’t take a lot of betting debuting at SAR. Needed the race? Would hope so, because he was getting a good trip not far off a slow pace before retreating.
Third Race
1. Exact Estimate
2. Son of a Birch
3. Rose Ruler
EXACT ESTIMATE is just one class better than his main rivals, and if he “runs his race,” which I expect, he should win this. J Ortiz has plenty of pace beneath him to get this horse a perfect pocket trip. SON OF A BIRCH might be a longer price than his M Maker-trained stablemate ROSE RULER, but I like him a little more – though, to be fair, they’re much different kinds of horses, SOAB older and very well established. RR still finding his baseline. Birch used to do some routing but showed two back that at this point he just wants to sprint – but, that said, the 5 1/2 he got last time is a touch too short. Quite the opposite for Rose Ruler, who consistently has finished off well at 5 1/2 on the grass but is unknown going this extra 1 1/2 furlongs. Based on the Tapeta runs, you might guess he won’t stay, but that might not be the right way to look at it.
Fourth Race
1. Grantchester
2. Beethoven
3. Making It Rain
Mainly flying blind here – not much racing and next to zero work video. We do have a couple from debuting GRANTCHESTER – I liked them! Went quite well on dirt and the strength of gallops out hints he’s ready to roll – wherever that gets him – right out of the box. BEETHOVEN has a long, strong-looking work pattern, but, again, without being able to see the drills, I’m not going to call them “good.” The barn has been strangely quiet at a meet they usually target. MAKING IT RAIN had an opening weekend run over the course, but I wouldn’t call it an especially encouraging one.
Fifth Race
1. Divisible By
2. Lazlo
3. Catch the Breeze
DIVISIBLE BY might be a 5yo, but he’s still got upside. Not only because he’s still lightly raced (long layoff), but because he’s only had a couple tries over one mile, running well at nine furlongs, and because of the jockey switch two back. He was ridden the same way his first five starts, that is, passively almost all the way around the far turn, effort made to tip out and mow them down in the homestretch – and those SoCal homestretches, especially in races with a moderate pace, just aren’t long enough for that. Can very much see Rosario partway down the backstretch start to gently ask the horse to take a better position – the horse is willing. He has a pretty long run, suggesting he can go this longer trip; my greater concern is his kind of loopy stride and how it will get him over the KD course. It’s not a strong race, and LAZLO is not really a strong finisher, either, but he does stay on decently, and I’m just crossing out his dud two back. CATCH THE BREEZE definitely got the wrong ride two back, but while he came with a nice run last out, I trust him less to sustain that move over this longer trip than I do the top pick, who also should be a considerably longer price.
Sixth Race
1. Rules and Regs
2. Eat Hay Run
3. Sutura
RULES AND REGS gave Lion Lake a run for her money debuting in that GP maiden turf route, and Lion Lake is a stakes horse – nearly won the Music City at KD last weekend. R and R faced some solid horses in another encouraging performance second out, and third out lost all chance at the start. Not worried about the extended layoff – at least not at her price relative to that of likely favorite EAT HAY RUN. Eat Hay Run is a solid player – her GP form through Tam Tam about as good as R and Rs through Lion Lake, though Tam Tam didn’t develop as early as Lion Lake. My concern is that with decent trips she didn’t really improve second and third time out, and wonder if that trend line continues. SUTURA, for what it’s worth, didn’t have Lasix in either of her last two starts. At least as important: One was a two-turn mile, the other a short sprint – she’s kind of a tweener who should suit this trip, and, of course, there’s the drop from stakes competition. All that and I can’t quite get there with the horse.
Seventh Race
1. Titan Ready
2. Junction
3. Bravo Tango
TITAN READY is way, way down on the AE list, but you’d be surprised how often the 15s and 16s draw into Kentucky races. He looks like an odds-on standout I don’t want to try and beat if he can make the gate. JUNCTION’s pedigree strongly leans turf, and I’d expect he was “given” that Ellis dirt debut to tighten the screws for this surface switch into a rich turf maiden. BRAVO TANGO yes ran second at about this level on debut, but faced only seven and didn’t hit the line especially hard.
Eighth Race
1. Amber Cascade
2. Mo Fox Givin
3. Shotgun Wedding
Why would AMBER CASCADE be has high as 6-1 here? Rained onto dirt in her long-layoff comeback, and showed after barn change last year that she’s a turf horse. They, of course, left her in the off-turfer to prep the mare for … this very start. Longer trips suited, sure, but she fired, as well, in a middle-distance contest like this one. MO FOX GIVIN’s last out dirt race is a toss, and she didn’t get a truly fair chance in the two turf tries before it. I’m looking at her win last season over the KD course and wondering why she’d be as high as 20-1. In fact, I like her a notch better than her much lower-priced M Casse-trained stablemate SHOTGUN WEDDING, who has no KD history but does have some grinding tendencies.
Ninth Race
1. Fleetingly
2. Chartist
3. Planet Clare
First inclination: The 91 Beyer overrates FLEETINGLY’s baseline, and, even worse in terms of value, she earned it in her last start of 2025 and now returns from a long layoff. She had been just another decent contender in maiden and allowance races, and doesn’t have the edge her price will suggest – or does she? The barn’s trustworthy with long layoff runners, and those middling maiden and N1X tries actually are consistently better than what this soft group typically produces. I mean, look at CHARTIST – she’s improving, I guess, but baseline to baseline, I’d comfortably take Fleetingly over her. And while PLANET CLARE has gotten onto a huge roll — won very nicely last out – and has clearly been aimed to KD with a long string of works, not at all convinced she’s “good enough” or wants this much distance.
Tenth Race
1. Tawny Port
2. Navy Seal
3. Limited Liability
Had Navy Seal over TAWNY PORT when this race was supposed to be run last week – now feel pretty strongly about Tawny Port. The course has not favored front-runners, which would help NAVY SEAL, but has been very fast and firm, which is what Tawny Port, who stays and goes well at KD, wants. The extra six days from the C Clement last out doesn’t hurt either. That said, Navy Seal ought to have a touch more upside in staying races – if he really does want to run this far. Not foreclosing on LIMITED LIABILITY getting back toward the form that won him this race two years ago, but doubt he can handle the top choice even if he does.
Twelfth Race
1. Kentucky Belle
2. Bless Her
3. Call On Me
Look at the work pattern through the summer, when she wasn’t racing, and you might conclude that Cox and WinStar planned all along for this one-two punch – Saratoga Oaks, then Dueling Grounds Oaks for KENTUCKY BELLE. Very impressed with the SAR comeback run – she’s just a stronger horse, I believe, than in the spring, and that 10-1 upset last time will not look like an upset at all when she wins this race. BLESS HER not close to KB at SAR, but just a nose behind her at KEE this past spring. She has yet to hit her peak, I don’t think, and ought to bridge the gap without beating Kentucky Belle this time. Quite impressed with the run CALL ON ME turned in winning last out at Ellis, but not at all convinced that she can run that kind of race stepping up in class and, even more so, at this meaningfully longer distance.
Thirteenth Race
1. Do Wah Diddy
2. Zipline
3. Rhett Dreams
DO WAH DIDDY prepped for this debut at Saratoga, and liked at least something about all the work video we have from her there. Even in the gate drill we can see, where she petered out long before the “best” horse in that breeze, she showed some real flash knifing between horses after a slow break from the gate (which she can’t afford here). ZIPLINE debuted in a solid CNL maiden and really only found herself at the furlong pole, showing quite a bit from there to the wire while looking like a strong candidate to appreciate a longer sprint trip. No work video for debuting RHETT DREAMS, but the pattern is good, some fast times, and the young sire has been getting some grass runners.
Fourteenth Race
1. White Star Line
2. Hard Champ
3. Breakout Ready
Couple breeze videos from WHITE STAR LINE allows us to say that she has not only been working fast for her debut, but she has been working well. Even if “live” I doubt she attracts a lot of betting, and will give her a chance to beat a couple horses that I also like. HARD CHAMP showed some ability breaking from the rail in her lone start, which was supposed to be on turf, but got rained off while providing a useful stepping-stone to second-start improvement over what figures to be her preferred surface. BREAKOUT READY didn’t break that well in her lone start but still showed a lot of speed rushing up the fence and into contention before hitting the turn. Was racing a little bit out of control, and was fortunate to find her way off the fence with no traffic, but did so athletically enough in the end, and wasn’t quite ready – still green – to bear down and catch the pacesetting winner.
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