MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, September 9.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews has had massive road struggles this season with a 2.84 ERA at home and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 6.45 road ERA with 2.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. Tigers starting pitcher Keider Montero is pitching to plenty of contact with only six strikeouts per nine innings, but has a 3.52 ERA with only 0.9 home runs and two walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -148
6:35 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz has pitched better than his 3.91 ERA would indicate with a 3.40 fielding independent, 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed, and eight strikeouts per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Foster Griffin has a nice 3.26 ERA, but his 4.16 fielding independent points toward regression, and the offense supporting him ranks 29th in road scoring with four runs per game.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -105
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -128
6:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk has been far from impressive this season with a 4.00 ERA and 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but faces a Mets lineup that is 23rd in scoring with 4.2 runs per game. Junk has far better command than Mets starting pitcher Robert Stock, who has a 5.81 ERA with 4.4 walks per nine innings, while Junk is issuing 2.4 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -118
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -132
6:45 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Angels starting pitcher Ryan Johnson has pitched significantly better recently, as he overall this season owns a 5.17 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings, but has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past six starts. Red Sox starting pitcher Jake Bennett is pitching to quite a bit of contact with 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings, but has a 3.34 ERA while not hurting himself, allowing only 0.8 home runs and 1.6 walks per nine innings. He faces an Angels lineup that since the All-Star Break is last in scoring with less than 3.2 runs per game.
Pick: Angels vs. Red Sox Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4
7:10 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves
Rays starting pitcher Griffin Jax owns a 3.81 ERA and 3.96 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings and faces a Braves lineup that is ninth in the league in scoring with over 4.6 runs per game. Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo López has a 3.64 ERA and 4.32 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings and is making his first MLB appearance since July 28.
Pick: Rays vs. Braves Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3
7:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Cubs starting pitcher Kevin Gausman overall has a 4.38 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed and has posted a 5.50 ERA in his past 14 starts. Brewers starting pitcher Logan Henderson has a 2.48 ERA with 10 strikeouts and 1.5 walks per nine innings, but his 3.28 fielding independent is a concern, and he faces a Cubs lineup that leads the league in scoring with 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Cubs vs. Brewers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
10:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto has put together another nice season with a 2.67 ERA, one home run, and 2.1 walks per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder has struggled with three runs or more allowed in each of his past four starts to raise his ERA to 5.43 for the season, but his 4.66 fielding independent with 1.2 home runs per nine innings points toward positivity. He faces a Dodgers lineup that ranks 16th in scoring at home with 4.4 runs per game while leading the league in road scoring with 5.4 runs per game. The Reds are 23rd in scoring with 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Reds vs. Dodgers Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
