Week 1 NFL Predictions
The NFL returns this week, and it finally feels like full-blown football season. Between college and the NFL, it feels like there’s a game on about every day, which is a ton of fun but a lot of work to handicap and recalibrate our expectations for teams as the data points continue to roll in. NFL plays carried me last football season after a model adjustment, so I’m hoping to continue that upward momentum into 2026. Here are a couple of plays that I like for NFL Week 1 so far.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) vs New York Jets, O/U 39.5
TSI has Tennessee projected at -4 in this game, so we’re getting through a couple of key numbers here in NFL betting. Power ratings aside, the Jets figure to be about as bad as anyone in the league, and Robert Saleh may have revenge on his mind taking on his former team. Cam Ward enters year two for Tennessee with a shiny new toy in Carnell Tate — preseason production concerns aside — and should take the next step as a passer this season. Ward was substantially better at home than on the road last year, so the home-field advantage may help the second-year QB more than the average bear, and he finished the year with an 8:1 TD:INT ratio over his last four games. I think the Titans get the cover at home in Week 1.
Bet: Titans -1.5 (Play to -2.5)
Houston Texans (+1) vs Buffalo Bills, O/U 44.5
TSI projects a pick’em in this game, and I like the home dog for a few reasons in addition to the number. Houston was #1 in total yards allowed last season and #2 in points allowed, giving up just 4.8 yards per play. Don’t forget, this Texans team beat Buffalo outright last year without QB CJ Stroud, in a game Houston sacked Josh Allen eight times and intercepted him twice. In Josh Allen’s last two trips to Houston, he’s just 33/64 for 384 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 9 sacks, and is 0-2 straight up. This Bills defense was second-to-last in the league in opponent YPC last season, so Houston figures to have some running success in addition to Stroud’s arm in this game. Give me the home dog that the sharps already bet at this number earlier in the offseason.
Bet: Texans +1 (Play to pk)
TSI NFL Week 1 Projections
| Date | Home | Neutral? | Away | TSI Spread | TSI Total |
| 9/9/2026 | Seattle Seahawks | New England Patriots | 3.5 | 44.5 | |
| 9/10/2026 | Los Angeles Rams | Y | San Francisco 49ers | 3.0 | 49.5 |
| 9/13/2026 | Carolina Panthers | Chicago Bears | -2.0 | 45.5 | |
| 9/13/2026 | Cincinnati Bengals | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4.0 | 51.5 | |
| 9/13/2026 | Detroit Lions | New Orleans Saints | 7.0 | 49.0 | |
| 9/13/2026 | Houston Texans | Buffalo Bills | 0.0 | 44.5 | |
| 9/13/2026 | Indianapolis Colts | Baltimore Ravens | -4.0 | 48.5 | |
| 9/13/2026 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Cleveland Browns | 9.5 | 40.5 | |
| 9/13/2026 | Las Vegas Raiders | Miami Dolphins | 4.5 | 41.0 | |
| 9/13/2026 | Los Angeles Chargers | Arizona Cardinals | 13.5 | 46.0 | |
| 9/13/2026 | Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers | -1.0 | 45.0 | |
| 9/13/2026 | New York Giants | Dallas Cowboys | -2.0 | 50.0 | |
| 9/13/2026 | Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Commanders | 6.5 | 47.0 | |
| 9/13/2026 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Atlanta Falcons | 4.0 | 41.5 | |
| 9/13/2026 | Tennessee Titans | New York Jets | 4.5 | 39.0 | |
| 9/14/2026 | Kansas City Chiefs | Denver Broncos | 3.5 | 42.5 |
For more Week 1 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 1 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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