Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Friday, August 28 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Silvology (8th race)
Eighth Race
1. Silvology
2. Storm Miami
3. Unmerited Favor
SILVOLOGY improved with added distance early last year, only to endure a long layoff following two solid efforts in graded stakes company in the spring; likely used the shorter race off the bench as a prep, and she was a convincing winner of that allowance race when stretched back out last time; steps back up. STORM MIAMI has failed to hold stretch leads in all three starts since being stretched out to longer distances; think she’ll have the lead to herself once again, and she is not facing Silvie this time. UNMERITED FAVOR lacks a standout figure, but she has been at her best over longer distances so far in her career; thought she got a bit headstrong in that last one before getting outfinished pretty easily back in stakes company; stretches back out,
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other nine races on Friday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Pay Monthly
2. Rockabye
3. Bolt Island
PAY MONTHLY is by the crack turf sprinter Golden Pal (nine debut winners already from his first crop of runners; 21% with turf sprinters); the dam was a winner on turf, and she is a sister to two turf stakes winners, including the excellent sprinter Four Wheel Drive, who won all three starts as a 2yo, all in stakes races, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint; bred for this, and goes for an excellent debut barn. ROCKABYE has already run well twice over course and distance while having to settle for second both times; ran to the lead in the stretch after sitting a tracking trip in that last one, but he was no match for a good winner late; tries again. BOLT ISLAND has been keeping company in the morning wth stablemates Pros and Cons and Golden Siren, both maiden winners on turf at this meet; bred for the grass; might want more distance than this.
Second Race
1. Bellacose
2. Ah Ca Ira
3. Miss Lao
BELLACOSE has run her best races on this track when properly spotted; was moved back up in class off the claim last time, where she tried rating to no avail; drops back down and draws outside the other speed. AH CA IRA also tried moving up in class off a win for this trainer three starts back; was back in the right kind of spot vs several of these same rivals last time, and she ran well that day while closer to a fast pace than most, before coming away second-best; logical entering right back in a similar spot. MISS LAO was also in that fast-paced race going seven on 7/10, as was JACKIE THE JOKER, who was setting those quick fractions; MISS LAO bobbled at the start, then made an outside move around the turn before weakening in the stretch; can do better in her second start off the claim.
Third Race
1. Spoiler
2. Interlock Empire
3. Fever Night
Narrowly or not, SPOILER won twice for $50k in the spring at Oaklawn; bumped into Burnham Square when moved back up in class to try turf again two back, then finished a good second over a very wet track going this distance here early in the meet; drops all the way down for Flying P/Maker. INTERLOCK EMPIRE arrived in good form from Louisiana for the SPOILER connections three weeks ago, and he was also on a big drop in class that day when settling for third as the favorite; stretching out off the claim for Noda, whose three prior winners at the meet were all making their first start out of his barn. FEVER NIGHT has won two in a row for Linda Rice going shorter, though he has run well over this distance in the past; capable from on or off the pace, though the class droppers make this a tough field for the level.
Fourth Race
1. Normandy Coast
2. Norwich
3. Shoot the Nickel
NORMANDY COAST was on a class drop when sitting behind pace-setting NORWICH and closing that rival down under strong handling when they met in a seven-furlong race earlier in the meet; moves into a protected spot to make his first start off the claim, and breaking from the outside is to his advantage. NORWICH was also dropping down in class when only second-best to NORMANDY COAST two back; he was claimed out of that race and came right back to win his next start while earning a similar figure; in good form and tactical from the rail. SHOOT THE NICKEL made a wide run to the lead and was caught by PRINCIP making the last move in his first start for Linda Rice two back; was given an excellent closer’s ride last time when coming up just short of catching NORWICH; logical right back.
Fifth Race
1. Bluegrass Princess
2. Royal County Down
3. Sellonthenews
BLUEGRASS PRINCESS made her debut routing on dirt, where she bobbled at the start to wind up last, then raced greenly at the back of the pack before putting in a late run for third; likely gained the experience she needed in that run, and she is bred for the grass. ROYAL COUNTY DOWN made her debut sprinting, which is what her talented older sister Future Is Now (multiple graded stakes winner, 10 for 16 on turf, four stakes wins at Saratoga) preferred; she put in a solid late run in that race to finish a gaining second, and she might appreciate more distance as a daughter of Audible; great post for the stretch out. SELLONTHENEWS is by 22% juvenile debut sire Lope de Vega (19% with turf routers); this is a strong Juddmonte female family; would be no surprise for top connections.
Sixth Race
1. McMoon
2. Hammerin Henry
3. Just You Baby
MCMOON benefited from some gate scratches in his debut, though he was always taking money in that spot, and he went out and ran a solid race despite only being second-best in the end; Weaver gets much better results with his 2yo maidens on dirt after a race. HAMMERIN HENRY chased three-wide in a pace-dominated race and could not gain significant ground in the stretch of his debut; draws outside looking to improve on that first run. JUST YOU BABY sold for $100k in May and will debut for a very good first-out trainer; the dam (three wins, all dirt sprints, 80 Beyer top) has dropped four winning foals already, and this is the female family of Grade 2 winner, and multiple NY-bred stakes winner, Pat On the Back
Seventh Race
1. Mi Bago
2. George Briggs
3. Spirit of St Louis
MI BAGO has learned to harness his ample early speed, and he is in career-best form right now following back-to-back triple-digit Beyer efforts in graded stakes company; there is some other speed in this field, but he is fastest early and shouldn’t be conceding anything; the clear horse to beat. GEORGE BRIGGS has shaped with potential from the start, and he does still have some time to improve with only seven starts behind him; thought he looked good winning his first start for Clement when brought back from a layoff in May, but he disappointed a bit when behind both MI BAGO and SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS in the Kingston last time; won’t be easy, but can see giving him one more chance to break through. SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS was a two-time Grade 1 winner before tailing off late last year; still competitive in races like this, though he has come up short in each of his last three starts at short prices; tries again.
Ninth Race
1. Sassy Princess
2. Proud Foot
3. Bam’s Bliss Kiss
SASSY PRINCESS won twice at Aqueduct last winter before trying to stretch out around two turns to no avail; won each of her first three starts after the trainer switch to Jacobson while being turned back again; never made a run in a fast-paced race last time following a short layoff; a threat if she can get back on track against this group. PROUD FOOT was in good form when claimed at the end of June, but didn’t seem to run one of her good races in her first start back in the Kantarmaci barn last time, as she chased Sweet Note’s pace along with the eventual winner and could not stay with them in the stretch; 0-5 in her career at Saratoga, but she has plenty of races that make her a contender in here. BAM’S BLISS KISS won six straight, beginning with a confidence-builder at Finger Lakes last November, and culminating in a stakes win in April going a mile; might have reached the end of the line, though her last two starts came in much tougher races, and her speed makes her dangerous in here.
Tenth Race
1. Stormy Birthday
2. Illmatic
3. Joker On Fire
Turning back from a route to a sprint on turf isn’t always easy, but STORMY BIRTHDAY is already proven going short, and he just ran a very good race going a mile at a big price; his overall record is a bit uninspiring, though he has had some trips along the way, and he looked like he needed that first start off the layoff in May. ILLMATIC and JOKER ON FIRE just finished close together in a similar spot behind a well-meant, ship-in winner; both are in good form; ILLMATIC breaks from the rail again, while JOKER ON FIRE gets stuck wide this time.
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