UFC Shanghai Predictions:
Shanghai is the host city for this week’s UFC event. Saturday’s fight slate is 11 fights deep, with combatants from China, Japan and Indonesia populating much of the fight card, hosting athletes from across the globe traveling in to compete against them.
A few age-variance fights are on this slate. Only two fights feature large men, so we may see more athleticism, tactics, and decision results rather than the dynamic finishes we saw last week.
This fight card begins at Midnight Saturday PT, with the main card dropping at 3 a.m. PT. Once again, we’ll be challenged to find some actionable betting opportunities as five of the scheduled 12 bouts (that I track) are lined with a favorite at least -250. Selectivity rules again regarding this fight card.
Favorites this year in the UFC are 70.3%.
Last week, we dished a live dog in MarQuel Mederos, who we had straight +225 for a half unit. We also had 1.5u on MarQuel +3.5pts +100. Mederos KO’d a tough, willing Welsh wrecking ball in Mason Jones. Mederos closed -300, so it pays to be patient when it comes to investing in underdogs in the UFC!
Digital results to date: 16-14-1 +2.17u
Umar Nurmagomedov -485 vs. Song Yadong +435
Bantamweight (135 pounds) main event
Yadong is a Chinese fighter training in northern California at Team Alpha Male under the tutelage of Uriah Faber.
Yadong has tremendous strength, cardio, and fortitude to complement his superior boxing/muay Thai striking. Yadong’s wrestling, once elementary, has evolved into an asset, albeit one he cannot really rely on to win fights. Instead, he utilizes wrestling takedown defense to ensure his competition has to compete against him standing.
Yadong’s more comfortable on the feet than rolling on the mat, but in this fight, Yadong will be taken down.
How Song manages this fight once his opponent presses forward to engage in his vice-grip wrestling and then grounds him will be the foundational aspect of this bout.
If Yadong can force Umar to compete with him standing, then this fight becomes more winnable for the local Chinese fighter training now in Cali. Yadong has earned a positive significant strike differential of .53 SS/M while his takedown defense is a stout 73%.
Umar Nurmagomedov is simply a 135-pound version of Islam Makhachev. Nurmagomedov, International Master of Sports in Combat Sambo, is the premier talent in the division.
Umar’s strike defense is as effective as there is in the whole of the organization, as he sports a positive 2.0 SS/M advantage while his stellar defense allows a paltry 1.86 SS/M to be landed on him.
Umar’s striking has evolved into a legitimate weapon despite the fact that he uses that mode of fighting only long enough to engulf his opponent, drag them to the canvas, then envelop them in his smothering Sambo/wrestling/grappling.
Once this fight begins, we can look for Song to try to start his striking quickly and involve the fans, but he must do so cautiously. Any indication of over-aggression or forward thrust sets him up for the takedown, which is foundational to the Nurmagomedov plan.
Yadong will want to use his jab to initiate conflict, but he must also stay fleet of foot and use a wide stance to fend off the takedown advances that Umar is certain to impose.
The Nurmagomedov camp, for their part, feels that he can win this fight anywhere it goes. I believe that to be correct. Umar’s striking is a tool used simply to set up his dynamic takedown ability (4.03 takedowns executed per 15 minutes of fight time).
Once Nurmagomedov can transition opponents from feet to floor, his single point of focus is to squeeze the breath from the opponent. Nurmagomedov has finished three of his last six adversaries, and in this fight, against the organization’s sixth-ranked bantamweight, he will look to try to finish Yadong in any manner possible.
A larger cage, a Chinese home crowd backing Yadong, and Yadong arriving at this battle off a finish win against Deiveson Figueiredo make me feel this fight will be competitive as long as Yadong keeps it standing.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -230
Bantamweight fights in the UFC go to decision 55% of the time, so I lean that this fight does, in fact, go to the judges.
Su Mudaerji -215 vs. Alex Perez +190
Flyweight (125 pounds)
Rematch!
In May of this year, these two tussled in Macao, and the result was a ‘no contest’ based on a south-of-the-border teep-kick from Mudaerji to Perez.
The 34-year-old Perez closed a -125 favorite in that fight based on his level of competition faced and his depth of UFC experience.
During the fight, Perez experienced difficulty entering the pocket on Mudaerji, who is three inches taller and holds a substantial seven-inch reach advantage.
Mudaerji, 30, is primarily a striker, so those height and reach numbers clearly pronounce him as a difficult chore for the shorter Perez. We saw that in the first fight.
In this bout, Perez is going to need to solve the distance problem he faces in this matchup, which is the same distance issue he experienced just three months ago.
Mudaerji trains at Uriah Faber’s Team Alpha Male, a renowned gym that specializes in the wrestling base. Wrestling base is mandatory for Mudaerji, for his movement, striking, Muay Thai, and athleticism are all intertwined in his fluidity of striking, but his takedown defense, especially against experienced, well-rounded, grappling-based athletes, needs improvement.
For Perez, he must turn up the intensity of this fight from the opening bell and pressure Mudaerji, while forcing him to move backward. If Perez can forge forward and pressure Mudaerji, he will have a better chance of locking up with the Tibetan fighter and dragging him to the floor for a flogging.
Mudaerji got Perez in Macao in May and now must face another Mudaerji home crowd for this fight, which translates to no excuse for Perez, for he is well aware that any close decision could well be flavored by a little Chinese home cooking.
Perez must make this fight like his pants are on fire and sell his soul to engage in his wrestling.
Meanwhile, Mudaerji will need to utilize his athleticism in that huge 30-foot cage and mandate that this fight takes place standing. If he does that, Mudaerji will be difficult to beat in this rematch.
UFC Shanghai Best Bet: Su Mudaerji -215
I’ll also pair him in a parlay with an upcoming fight where Armen Tsarukyan (currently priced -365) faces Brazilian Mauricio Ruffy on a September 19th fight card. This parlay is available at DraftKings.
Tsarukyan -115 becomes the net price point for digital readers should Su Mudaerji realize success in the first leg!
Parlay outlay: 1.15u
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Under
It’s a thin slate this week, and it drops in the middle of the night. Please enjoy the fights, and thank you for reading.
SPONSORED
TONY GEORGE IS DELIVERING RESULTS WITH PROPS
Tony George, a 34-year veteran Handicapper at Docs Sports, continues to produce winning results. Over the past 19 days, he has generated an impressive +$3545 profit with his Props in MLB and the WNBA, showcasing the consistency and discipline that have made him one of the industry’s most trusted handicappers.
His results speak for themselves:
· +$3545 over the last 19 days
· 4-0 run on Top Picks (only 4 of them in 30 days by design)
Rather than flooding clients with excessive plays, Tony’s low-volume, methodical approach focuses on quality over quantity—and it’s paying off once again in 2026.
See Tony’s recent results here.
If you’re looking for a proven handicapper with a consistent track record and disciplined strategy, check out Tony George’s daily selections at Docs Sports and see why so many clients continue to trust his picks.
Access his premium picks at Doc’s Sports with a free $60 new member account. Get your free trial here!
