Wake up early for this one!
This week the UFC heads to Shanghai this week for an early card, or late card depending on your sleep schedule. Goes down at 3AM ET, so get those bets in early.
Dave Ross and I broke down the event on this week’s First Strike, give it a listen/watch at the link before you finalize your card.
Let’s dig in.
Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes
Yan Xiaonan has had a decorated run in the strawweight division. She challenged for the belt in 2024 against Weili Zhang, losing a unanimous decision, and notably holds a victory over current champion Mackenzie Dern. But since that title shot she’s gone 1–1, most recently dropping a decision to Virna Jandiroba in April of 2025. She returns now after a 16-month layoff at 37 years old. After starting her UFC career with six straight wins, she’s gone 3–4 since 2021. The decline is real even if the name value remains.
Across from her is Denise Gomes, 26 years old and riding a four-fight win streak, most recently a decision over Tecia Pennington. She’s 6–2 since entering the promotion in 2022 and ascending at exactly the moment Yan is trying to hold her ground. The age gap here is 11 years, and the trajectory gap is equally significant.
Both women share a 63-inch reach, with Yan holding a three-inch height advantage. The xR% numbers are nearly identical, 58% for Yan, 59% for Gomes, which tells you the rounds have been competitive for both fighters without either consistently dominating.
Yan is not a finisher. Only one UFC finish across 13 fights tells that story clearly. Gomes has three knockout victories in eight UFC bouts, showing genuine finishing ability at this level.
The striking profiles are both clean and technical. Yan lands 4.69 significant strikes per minute with a +1.46 differential, absorbing only 3.23 per minute. She’s efficient and controlled. Gomes lands slightly less at 4.02 per minute with a +0.95 differential, absorbing 3.07 per minute. Both women are technically sound strikers, with Yan holding a modest output edge.
The clinch and ground game is where Gomes begins to separate herself. She spends only 42% of her time at distance, she’d rather work in close, and holds a 52% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, spending 30% of her fight time in a control position. She’s not an aggressive takedown artist with only 10 scored at 34% accuracy, but she uses the closed distance to accumulate damage and dictate the pace of exchanges.
Yan’s ground game is largely absent from her profile. She holds just a 22% control rate. And while her 73% takedown accuracy is impressive on paper, nearly half of those takedowns came against a single opponent. The grappling picture overall tilts toward Gomes in a fight where closed-distance work could be the deciding factor.
Strength of schedule goes to Yan, but the age, the layoff, and the statistical profile all point in a concerning direction for the veteran.
The model runs it through and lands on the underdog. Denise Gomes receives a 63% win probability and a Tier 1 Live Dog designation at +130.
The Live Dog tier isn’t the hottest. We’re aware of it. But the model’s confidence in this pick is real, the price is right, and a 26-year-old on a four-fight win streak against a 37-year-old returning from 16 months away is a spot worth backing.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong
Umar Nurmagomedov has one blemish on his professional record. A title fight loss to Merab Dvalishvili. Every other fight in his career has ended in a win. He’s 20–1 and has looked every bit the elite-level contender since that title loss, most recently grinding out a decision over Deiveson Figueiredo in January. The path back to a title shot runs through performances like the one he’s expected to deliver on Saturday in Shanghai.
Song Yadong enters on the back of a submission win over Figueiredo in May, the same man Umar just beat, which sets up an interesting implied comparison. Song is 2–2 in his last four, looking to string results together and make a statement against one of the division’s top contenders. He’s got his work cut out.
The reach edge goes to Umar by two inches. The xR% gap is where things get telling. Umar checks in at an elite 83%. Championship-level round-winning consistency across a meaningful UFC sample. Song sits at a solid 64%, genuinely respectable but clearly a different tier from what Umar is producing.
The striking profiles reflect their intentions. Song wants to keep this standing, spending 78% of his time at distance and landing 4.34 significant strikes per minute with a +0.53 differential, absorbing 3.81 per minute. He carries real power with seven knockdowns scored in the UFC, though none in his last four fights. Umar doesn’t need to win the striking battle, but he lands 3.86 per minute with a clean +2.00 differential, absorbing only 1.86 per minute. He’s virtually impossible to hit cleanly, and the striking is just a setup for where he actually wants the fight.
Umar holds a 93% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges. That is a suffocating, dominant grappling presence in the Nurmagomedov mold. Song defends takedowns at 74%, which is respectable, but he’s been taken down by less accomplished grapplers and Umar is operating at a different level entirely when it comes to wrestling pressure and cage control.
The model runs it through and delivers a clear result. Umar Nurmagomedov as a Tier 1 Favorite. His moneyline has climbed from –485 to as high as –510, and that number stays completely off the table. The implied win percentage in the odds is simply unplayable.
Where we could find value is the method. Umar by decision is the most logically supported path, he has only two submission attempts in his entire UFC career and Song has never been submitted professionally. The decision prop is currently sitting around –190 to –200, and that’s the number we’re evaluating. I’m not totally sold on playing it at that number just yet. We’ll see as the week goes on. Dave Ross had a very different angle on First Strike this week, worth checking out before the fights on Saturday morning (Friday night).
No bet on this one just yet. The decision prop is the target if it lands in the right spot.
Check out FightingWithNumbers.com for the full model tale of the tapes, grades, and reports on the fights this weekend.
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
