Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for August 6. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130) vs. White Sox
White Sox at Red Sox – 7:10 pm ET
Suarez comes into this game having recorded at least six strikeouts in six of his last nine games. He has also had at least six Ks in four of his last six meetings with teams in the league’s bottom 10 in strikeout rate, and that certainly applies to this Chicago squad (24.7% vs. LHP). I have been pretty blatantly targeting the White Sox with opposing pitcher props, and the numbers are even worse when they’re up against southpaws.
Janson Junk Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+101) vs. Braves
Marlins at Braves – 7:15 pm ET
Junk is coming off back-to-back starts in which he has recorded at least four strikeouts, and he has also done so in three of his last four outings. This isn’t a pitcher with remarkable stuff, but he’s capable of going over low strikeout totals. So, at plus-money odds (or just about), he’s a player worth backing in a decent matchup. The Braves aren’t exactly a strikeout-prone team, but this lineup is definitely gettable. Junk had three strikeouts against them on May 20, and he has been better as a swing-and-miss pitcher since returning from IL.
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+108) vs. Diamondbacks
Padres at Diamondbacks – 9:40 pm ET
Machado’s batting average is in the toilet, but he’s still capable of coming through in the right matchups. Well, in tonight’s game, Machado will be going up against a very green lefty in Kohl Drake. That should make Machado live to do some damage. This season, he’s averaging 2.0 total bases when facing lefties in road games. This is a decent situation for him, plus the price is right.
Additional Picks
Ryan Johnson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+126) vs. Orioles
Tommy White Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-108) vs. Reds
Nolan McLean Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130) vs. Guardians
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Esteury Ruiz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+144) vs. Braves
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 2.12 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -166 — a +21.4% edge to the Over.
David Hamilton Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-126) vs. Pirates
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.46 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -332 — a +21.1% edge to the Over.
Jase Bowen Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145) vs. Diamondbacks
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.45 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -326 — a +17.3% edge to the Over.
