Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Friday, July 24 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 10.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Gold Sovereign (10th race)
Tenth Race
1. Gold Sovereign
2. Orgonite
3. War and Majesty
GOLD SOVEREIGN finished gamely to hold his ground through a fast final three-eighths when stretched out in distance two back; lost his best chance when boxed up in traffic at a crucial point last time; rates another chance with Prat returning. ORGONITE was also compromised by the race-shape when putting in a good finish for third behind GOLD SOVEREIGN when stretched out last time; has run well enough to break out of the maiden ranks several times already, without quite managing to get the job done; tries again after a short freshening, this time with blinkers on. WAR AND MAJESTY has paired up Beyer tops in his last two starts, including that last one when contesting the pace going this distance in Kentucky; in good form with a versatile running style but has the outside post to overcome.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other nine races on Friday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Oath
2. Two by Two by Two
3. Babcie
OATH might be well-spotted in weak opener for maiden claimers, as he has speed while dropping in class to make his first start off the claim for Linda Rice; the 61 Beyer he earned when finishing second on debut makes him fastest in this field, though it did come on a different surface. TWO BY TWO BY TWO faced much tougher than this in his two Saratoga dirt starts as a juvenile; showed improved speed in his return from the layoff with blinkers and Lasix on, though that was on turf; turns back to sprint in his return to the main track. BABCIE has only started once, which is not a disadvantage in a race like this; made that lone start on turf, where he never landed a blow behind a longshot winner; needs this drop, and he has more of a dirt pedigree.
Second Race
1. Margie’s Girl
2. Miss Ma’am
3. Just Peachy
MARGIE’S GIRL ran well in both starts sprinting on dirt to begin her career. She appeared to get intimidated by rivals crossing over on her early and lost position in the debut, before swinging widest off the turn to put in a good finish; was on a speed-favoring track while chasing a dominant front-running winner gamely last time; filly from the female family of multiple Grade 1-winning turf router Better Lucky is bred to handle the surface and distance changes. MISS MA’AM was outpaced early, then finished gamely up the rail, and galloped out well past the wire in her career debut, which came in a short sprint on dirt; her dam is a sister to Grade 2-winning turf router Theodora B.; switches to grass and stretches right out from a nice inside draw. JUST PEACHY also has the pedigree in her female family to suggest that stretching out will lead to improvement, and she has already run well on the grass while finishing a clear second behind a dominant, front-running winner in her debut; picks up Prat for the second start.
Third Race
1. My Gun’s Loaded
2. Nycon
3. Krissys Star
$650k yearling MY GUN’S LOADED had little to offer in her debut last December and was sent right back to the drawing board; switched barns during the time off, and she looked like a different filly when storming past maidens in the stretch to win with a 92 Beyer here last month; bred to go on, and she has continued to train well since the maiden win. NYCON was more impressive than the 57 Beyer might make it look when breaking her maiden over this distance last November; she subsequently finished second in a couple of stakes races going the mile, before failing to stretch out effectively in a Grade 3 before the layoff; tries her available condition with Lasix on. KRISSYS STAR won the first three dirt starts of her career while alternating between starts on synthetic; has also run well while finishing second in each of her last two starts, and she has speed; threat right back for a dangerous trainer.
Fourth Race
1. Get a Job
2. Neon Bordeaux
3. Glen Airy
GET A JOB earned figures in the mid-80s while winning twice over fellow state-breds early in his career; promptly got back on track when winning an off-turf race here last summer, then held his own in his next two starts while facing tougher than this; interesting at a fair price as he drops for his return from the layoff. NEON BORDEAUX has been racing in good form since being claimed by Dutrow early last year, including three wins in a row when returned from a layoff in October; strong closer is dangerous when pace develops, but he can also run his race when forced to stay closer early. GLEN AIRY has consistently earned figures that make him tough in a race like this, and has done so for several different trainers; looks dangerous dropping for connections that look to win races up here.
Fifth Race
1. Swaging
2. Tedder
3. Majestic Arc
SWAGING has shown good speed since switching to dirt earlier in the year, beginning with an 81 Beyer effort off the bench at Fair Grounds; posted a determined maiden win in his first start off the claim, before trying turf to no avail last time; logical switching back to dirt with class relief. TEDDER was more game than anything else while posting the maiden win last November in his second career start; he also tried turf in his first start against other winners, but was no match for tougher allowance rivals when returned to dirt off the layoff; needs this class relief. MAJESTIC ARC has been racing in good form recently for an underrated trainer, and he also owns good tactical speed; never wins, but he can get a piece of this.
Sixth Race
1. Dazzling
2. Quartz Mountain
3. Red Coats Coming
DAZZLING made her debut in a dirt sprint, where she was not aggressively ridden from the gate, then looked green while gradually picking up a run, before ultimately weakening while failing to change leads in the stretch; well-bred filly looked like she needed that start, and she has plenty of turf in her pedigree. QUARTZ MOUNTAIN is by new sire Golden Pal (five debut winners already), and is a half-sister to a debut turf sprint winner who was also trained by Ward; shows some quick works for an excellent first-out barn. Like the top one, RED COATS COMING looked green in the running while making a debut on dirt, and she has much more of a turf pedigree; can improve quickly with that experience behind her, and with the surface switch.
Seventh Race
1. Mommy’s Turn
2. Golden Rocket
3. Nonna Lynne
MOMMY’S TURN flashed plenty of potential while looking like she was still figuring out how to be a professional racehorse last year; fact that she was able to win a stakes race early on was an excellent sign for her, and she had a right to need that start from the layoff while under pressure on the lead throughout; should be tighter for this. GOLDEN ROCKET has made her last five starts sprinting, but she routed on turf five times last year, and ran well in all of those races; has speed, but doesn’t need the lead to be effective; stretching out for a very good barn to make her second start off the layoff. NONNA LYNNE ran well here three times last summer, including the maiden win from off the pace; has continued to run well since then, and just finished ahead of stablemate MOMMY’S TURN when they made their respective 4yo debuts in the same race last month; still has room to improve.
Eighth Race
1. Scottish Lassie
2. Aeolian
3. Fully Subscribed
SCOTTISH LASSIE was a blowout Grade 1 winner as a 2yo, before running an underrated race through a difficult trip at the Breeders’ Cup; had her defining moment as a racehorse when crushing a second Grade 1 over this track and trip last summer, after which she endured another tough trip in the Grade 1 Cotillion; started back with an easy front-running win in her prep for this. AEOLIAN lacks the foundation that her main rivals already have, though she flashed some talent in her limited starts as a 3yo, including that impressive maiden win before the layoff; was sitting a good trip before getting put in tight and having to check in midstretch of her return, after which she finished well enough to appear to be an unlucky loser; holds upside, and she is bred to go longer. FULLY SUBSCRIBED and BLESS THE BROKEN just gave game chase to no avail as Nitrogen dominated the Grade 1 Phipps here last month; both are in good form and have a much better chance in this spot.
Ninth Race
1. Voodoo Doll
2. A Little At First
3. Caroline St. Beat
VOODOO DOLL finished strongly to win each of his first two starts sprinting, including the turf debut in his first start back from a layoff; was put on the lead when stretched to a mile last time, and he was never letting that field get by in the stretch, even after the runnerup bumped him and forced him into the gap just as the closers were coming into contention; still has forward to go. A LITTLE AT FIRST is 2 for 4 since stretching out in distance, and he has excuses for both losses; parlayed a perfect trip into an easy win here last month; steps up with a tactical running style and Irad taking over. CAROLINE ST. BEAT looked good winning his debut over this course and distance as a 2yo, while using a cozy inside post to his advantage; backed that effort up quite well when only second-best in the Notebook before the layoff; starts back from the layoff in another stakes race, this time while breaking from the outside post.
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