UFC Abu Dhabi Predictions:
The UFC travels to Abu Dhabi this weekend to export its brand to the fight-frenzied Muslim world. Abu Dhabi is becoming a regular stop for the UFC as they attract great crowds for the events, and there is a strong business relationship between the leadership there and the UFC.
This event will utilize the large cage, and a full house will witness the intended violence. We have 13 scheduled bouts, eight of which will be held in the higher weight classes of welterweight on up. These larger men produce the highest finish rates in the UFC, so we witness the effort to export UFC violence to the UAE.
There are seven fights on this card where the favorite is lined at least -310, in essence bringing total wagerable fights (outside of props and totals) to eight bouts. There are also a handful of fights where there exists great advantage from a youth standpoint.
Understanding age, size, travel, and location of the fight slate is always foundational in my handicapping process.
Last week, Jose Delgado +100 overcame a steamed prospect in Austin Bashi. Bashi was hit by the so-called ‘sharp’ gambling people right before they dropped the puck on this fight, moving Delgado into plus price territory. Delgado awarded Bashi his PhD. In MMA, so we tote a unit into our yearly bankroll.
Digital results stand 13-12-01 + .55u on the year.
Magomed Ankalaev -550 vs. Bogdan Guskov +430
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds) main event
Ninth-ranked light heavyweight Guskov steps in on relatively short notice to take advantage of the opportunity to climb the rankings with a victory over the number two-ranked former champion in Ankalaev.
Guskov takes the place of Kalil Rountree. He enters this fight after a draw with former champion Jan Blachowicz after winning four straight bouts.
Guskov is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a Master of Sport in MMA, and he’s earned a Master of Sport in Boxing. He is strong, determined, and utilizes a forward pressing attack where engagement with the opponent is mandatory. All of Guskov’s 18 wins are via finish.
That being stated, this is a substantial step up in class for Guskov. He also takes this opportunity on without the benefit of a full training camp.
Ankalaev is also highly versed in fighting. He holds an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA and a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo.
While most Russian fighters excel in grappling, sambo and wrestling, Ankalaev utilizes more of a pressing, striking and kicking attack to earn his wages. Of his 20 wins, 10 have come via KO and 10 via decision. Unusually for a Russian athlete in the UFC, Ankalaev holds no wins via submission.
This fight will likely be a war on the feet, for 15 of Guskov’s victories in MMA have come via KO/TKO, while 10 have come that way for Ankalaev. Ankalaev’s 10 decision wins point more to the elite level of adversary he has competed against as opposed to any lack of finishing ability.
Once this fight begins, Ankalaev’s size, might and experience will be the tells against an athlete in Guskov who has been pressed into this opportunity based on UFC need as opposed to Guskov’s own merits.
This will be a one-sided fight after a relatively competitive first round.
As a handicapper, my analysis of this card is that it was put together with the sole purpose of serving a proud, financially active, and involved Saudi demographic. I hate to state the obvious, but the overwhelming mismatch fights on this card force the opportunity-searching handicapper to have fewer fights to analyze for profit.
One consideration is to select four or five area combatants that are heavy chalk, then throw them into a round robin and bet each in two- and three-team sets.
However, I rarely bet that way, so for our purposes let’s execute the following future parlay ourselves.
UFC Abu Dhabi Main Event Best Bet: Ankalaev/Guskov starts Round 2 -250 To Mackenzie Dern -198; +110 (DraftKings) (Dern fights in the co-main event on August 15th vs. Gillian Robertson)
Total in Ankalaev/Guskov Fight: 2.5 -145 Under
Nurullo Aliev -220 vs. Mike Davis +190
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Aliev is set up to shine in front of his peeps as he is a vice-grip Tajikistani wrestling/sambo force entering this battle undefeated professionally at 11-0.
Should this fight go Aliev’s way, we’ll witness the Tajik fighter take Davis down immediately, then control him from top position on his way to an eventual decision or perhaps, if lucky, a finish. That’s what many feel will occur in this fight.
Myself, I handicap a lethal, pent-up fighting professional in Mike Davis, whose wrestling is so much more acute than many understand, like a coiled cobra in this situation.
He hasn’t had to utilize wrestling much because he sports hands of fury. He is a slick, competent power boxer along with holding underestimated wrestling acumen. That wrestling, specifically his takedown defense, must allow Davis to navigate this fight into the later rounds where his experience and technical striking ability will begin to produce effect.
Mike Davis is an underestimated razor blade, and in a situation like this, I trust him to fight for my dollar.
UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bet: Mike Davis +190
Total in this fight is not yet released, nor is the Points Handicap, which is a betting tool I utilize religiously.
Friday, when the ‘Bout Business Podcast comes out, I’ll highlight all my approaches to this fight, and there are many. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
SPONSORED
🤖 Robert Ferringo Is Heating Up
Robert Ferringo is 80-42 (65%) on his highest-rated plays, producing +14,020 units.
Over the past three weeks alone, he’s up +8,435 units across MLB, WNBA and World Cup wagers.
