MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, July 24.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
While Matthew Boyd’s season-long numbers suggest positive regression on his 4.15 ERA, as he owns a 3.68 fielding independent with 8.8 strikeouts and just one home run allowed per nine innings, his form has slipped since returning from the injured list. Boyd is averaging only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings and has allowed 1.3 home runs per nine innings over his past five starts. Pirates starter Jared Jones owns a 4.04 ERA, but his 3.23 fielding independent and 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings point toward improvement. Pittsburgh is backed by the league’s highest-scoring home offense at 5.7 runs per game, though the bullpen ranks just 22nd in ERA at 4.42.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -122 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -138 and Total 9.2
6:45 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
The Nationals are expected to use an opener before turning to bulk pitcher Zack Littell. Carson Palmquist owns an 8.76 ERA and is likely to throw one or two innings before Littell, who carries a 5.34 ERA and 6.25 fielding independent while allowing 2.3 home runs per nine innings with just 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez appears due for regression on his 2.62 ERA, as he owns a 4.09 fielding independent with 6.3 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Arizona also owns the better bullpen, ranking 14th in ERA since June 1 at 4.18, while Washington ranks 29th at 5.86.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -119 and Over 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -136 and Total 9.8
7:05 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles
Braves starter Grant Holmes appears due for regression, posting a 3.70 ERA despite a 4.96 fielding independent while allowing 1.5 home runs and four walks per nine innings. Atlanta is supported by the National League’s top bullpen with a 3.26 ERA. Orioles starter Trevor Rogers has allowed only three earned runs over his past five starts, but that streak could be challenged by a Braves offense that ranks sixth in scoring at five runs per game. Rogers owns a 4.28 ERA with 7.2 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings on the season.
Pick: Braves Moneyline +100
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -106
7:10 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Guardians starter Joey Cantillo has struggled with command, issuing 4.4 walks per nine innings, and his 3.99 fielding independent is higher than his 3.74 ERA. Cleveland also enters this game after an 11-inning contest on Thursday despite owning the league’s seventh-ranked bullpen ERA at 3.74. Rays starter Shane McClanahan owns a 3.16 ERA and 3.36 fielding independent with 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing just 0.7 home runs per nine innings. Cleveland has averaged fewer than 3.8 runs per game over its past 41 contests.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -140
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -168
8:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Mariners starter Bryce Miller has been outstanding, posting a 2.27 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts and 1.4 walks per nine innings. His 3.24 fielding independent and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings suggest some regression may be ahead. Rangers starter MacKenzie Gore owns a 4.80 ERA, but his 3.82 fielding independent and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings point toward better results. Gore has also been much better at home, where his ERA is 3.44 compared to 6.01 on the road. He benefits from facing a Mariners lineup that ranks 29th in scoring at just over four runs per game.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline +100
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -109
8:10 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starter Zebby Matthews owns a 5.40 ERA this season, but his numbers are dramatically better at home, where he has posted a 2.81 ERA while allowing 1.1 home runs per nine innings compared to a 7.58 ERA and 2.6 home runs per nine innings on the road. Athletics starter Jacob Lopez has struggled to a 6.64 ERA with 7.4 strikeouts and 5.4 walks per nine innings and has not completed five innings since May 14. That is a major concern with an Athletics bullpen that ranks last in the league in ERA at 5.60 and has been even worse since June 1 with a 7.04 ERA.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -140
Greg’s Handicap: Twins -158
10:15 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starter Logan Webb has exhibited pronounced home-and-road splits throughout his career, posting a 2.92 ERA with just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings at home compared to a 3.95 ERA on the road. Angels starter Grayson Rodriguez has struggled to an 8.23 ERA while recording 6.9 strikeouts and 4.4 walks per nine innings. He is also backed by a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA at 4.45.
Pick: Giants Run Line -1.5 +130 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -108 and Total 8.3
