Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Saturday, August 1 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Thunderously (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Thunderously
2. Sassmaster
3. Statesman
THUNDEROUSLY was the lone first-time starter in that field when debuting around two turns at Gulfstream, but he was professional throughout the running of that race, and he put in a strong stretch run to overpower that field with an 88 Beyer; he didn’t turn up again for six months, and he was mildly disappointing in the Monmouth return when unable to close down the leaders late; still think he’s pretty good based on the debut win; rates another chance as Mott wheels him back quickly. SASSMASTER debuted in a strong MSW here last summer, where he race wide and held his ground behind a couple of colts that are now stakes winners; handled the slop well en route to winning his 3yo and route debut with a big 96 Beyer at Churchill; still waiting for some runbacks to confirm the big efforts delivered by both him and runnerup Preside (entered in Thursday’s fourth race), but he might be tough right back. STATESMAN shaped with potential early on after winning his first two dirt routes around two turns impressively as a 3yo; he has run well at times since, and thought that last one was a step in the right direction when finishing gamely for second after a wide run off the turn; stretches back out at a price.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eleven races on Saturday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Pavlova’s Palace
2. Correlation Trade
3. Voyager
PAVLOVA’S PALACE raced greenly throughout her sprint debut while appearing to need the experience; her pedigree suggests that she will only get better with time and distance, and that was the impression she made in that first appearance; stretches right out and draws the rail. CORRELATION TRADE has looked good working up to this for top connections, and she is bred for this, being a daughter of 33% turf route sire (from limited starters in North America) New Bay, from a dam who was a Group 3 winner in Europe; expecting a good effort on debut. VOYAGER has started twice sprinting on dirt, and ran well in both of those races while trying to close ground into wire-to-wire winners; bred for turf and distance; can put her valuable experience to good use in this spot.
Second Race
1. Velora
2. Cyber Baby
3. Doitforjack
VELORA went for $300k after breezing 9.4 in April; daughter of 21% juvenile debut sire Yaupon is from the female family of Grade 1 winners Art Collector and Vision and Verse; shows up with a bullet breeze for the gate for Rice, who can win with a first-time starter. CYBER BABY is by new sire Cyberknife (3 for 19 with first-time starters as of this writing); has been working right along since the end of April for a young trainer who has been reliable with first-time starters; gets Prat for the debut. DOITFORJACK looks like a slightly built filly, but she is bred to be quick being by Jackie’s Warrior (off to a 1-21 start with firsters), from a top Broman female family that includes stakes winners Mineralogist, Sand Devil, and Seeking the Ante; this filly is a half to the speedy Mariachi (4 wins sprinting on dirt, two of those at Saratoga, 93 Beyer top); ships in with good works for Walsh – 2yo, first-time starter, dirt sprint: 8 for his last 27, 30%, $3.11 ROI.
Third Race
1. Eliminate
2. Tuscan Sky
3. Reasoned Analysis
Sided with ELIMINATE in this highly competitive claimer, based mostly on the first start off the claim for Rice, where he kept a solid pace within range before finishing strongly to win with a new Beyer top, and did so while up in class; trips are important from the chute, but there appears to be enough pace in this field to give him his best chance. TUSCAN SKY’s return from the long layoff two back looked like a prep while rallying too late going shorter than he prefers; got hooked into a long duel before giving way in a race that went to closers last time; can have one more chance with Prat returning. REASONED ANALYSIS exits the same race as TUSCAN SKY, where he made a brief lead in midstretch after racing close to that competitive pace, before getting run down late; that was his first start back from a long layoff, and he should be tighter for this.
Fourth Race
1. Subjugation
2. Cybersteel
3. Dream More
SUBJUGATION attended a pretty moderate pace before proving to be no match for the well-meant Antivenom when unveiled in Kentucky; still finished well clear of the others in that field while gaining experience, and he fits a strong profile for this trainer, who tends to bring his juveniles along with races rather than works; breezed a strong quarter in 20.4 before selling for nearly $400k earlier this year, suggesting that more distance will only benefit him down the line. CYBERSTEEL has more of a distance pedigree – his dam was a debut winner routing, and his half-sister, Life Talk, was a Grade 2 winner as a 2yo going long; ships up for Cox, who already has four 2yo debut winners at the meet. DREAM MORE is by Gun Runner (19% with 2yo first-time starters), from multiple Grade 1 winner Cavorting, who was a fast sprinter early on, before stretching out effectively as an older horse; half-sister Clairiere won four Grade 1s going long on dirt; we’ll see how effective she is sprinting, though she is one to watch no matter what.
Fifth Race
1. Virabhadrasana
2. Wyna
3. Amelia in Air
VIRABHADRASANA’s most recent breeze came in company with stablemate Stress Relief, who won her debut in Kentucky by open lengths at the end of June (66 Beyer); had previously worked a bullet five furlongs from the gate upon shipping up from Keeneland; new trainer already has two wins at the meet with 2yos. WYNA looks well-prepped by Cox, who has few peers with debuting 2yos, particularly at Saratoga – past five years, 2yo, first-time starter, this track: 27%, $3.57 ROI; sire Complexity hits with 16% of his 2yo firsters, though there is a lot of turf on the bottom of this pedigree. AMELIA IN AIR is by Quality Road (14% 2yo first-time starters); the dam is a sister to multiple Group 1-winning turf horse Air Force Blue, but this is also the female family of top 2yo Flanders; Beckman 16%, $3.52 ROI with 2yo first-time starters sprinting on dirt since going out on his own.
Sixth Race
1. How’s Al Today
2. Booked
3. Twinkle Town
HOW’S AL TODAY debuted in a sprint that featured a quick pace at Churchill. He kept those fast fractions within range before finding room inside and powering to the lead in an impressive first showing; breaks from the rail again, and he also projects to have pace to come after in this spot. BOOKED owns a big edge in experience on this field with three starts already behind him, and he is already a stakes winner on this track; he took no prisoners in the Sanford after breaking from the rail, though he had previously shown that he can rate and run if required; the one to beat. TWINKLE TOWN flashed good speed from the gate, and he had to turn away some pressure before getting clear of that field to win his debut, which came ove a sloppy track; the runbacks from that race have flattered the performance, though they all got to race over fast dirt, which might account for the improvement; still, this colt looked good in that first one, and he has continued to train forwardly since.
Eighth Race
1. Duboff
2. Paula’s a Star
3. Silsbee
DUBOFF is 3 for 4 in her career in races between 5 and 5.5 furlongs on turf, including that impressive win in January when turned back in distance; she has tactical speed and has already run well several times on this circuit; just has to be ready off the bench. Still might prefer PAULA’S A STAR on dirt, but she has run well in both starts since switched over to sprint on grass, including that last one when out of position from the start in a race that was dominated on the lead; chased a much faster pace two back when unable to track down SILSBEE; probably not sticking with her after this, but she can have one more chance at a fair price. SILSBEE is 0-3 over course and distance, though she has run well in all three of those races, particularly last year’s Galway when pulling a tough trip behind a wire-to-wire winner; good effort last time to win the pace battle, only to get run over by a perfectly-ridden longshot winner late; dangerous right back.
Ninth Race
1. Amberglen
2. Deep Learning
3. Lion Lake
AMBERGLEN looked promising winning her career debut as a 2yo, then improved more than it might appear in her next turf start when catching trouble early and late behind an impressive winner; Irad played no games last time and just let her dominate on the lead, which she did willingly; steps up with forward to go. DEEP LEARNING impressed winning her debut here last summer with a big 85 Beyer (as a 2yo); she failed in a pair of graded races after that, though she didn’t run poorly either time, then posted a convincing stakes win over weaker before the layoff; has upside, and layoffs usually are not much concern with this barn. LION LAKE is the logical measuring point for the top two, as she has been holding her own at or near the top of this division all year; she has lacked excuses while coming up short in three straight since upsetting the Herecomesthebride back in February, though just repeating one of those efforts might be good enough here.
Tenth Race
1. Commandment
2. Chip Honcho
3. Renegade
COMMANDMENT has been one of the leaders of this division from the start, and he looks well-positioned to get back on track in the Jim Dandy as he turns back a bit out of an excellent effort in the Belmont Stakes; switching back to Prat is also a positive, and he will have COMMANDMENT involved from the start in a race that lacks early pace. CHIP HONCHO might be best positioned to take advantage of the lack of speed in this field, though he must also prove that he can play at the top of this division – something that both COMMANDMENT and RENEGADE have already done; exits a career-best effort winning the Ohio Derby from stalking range, but they need to go from the gate this time. RENEGADE entered the Derby in excellent form despite holding no edge in figures, and he ran a very good race that day to just miss; wasn’t nearly as good in the Belmont when no match for COMMANDMENT late; easily capable of better.
Eleventh Race
1. Dakota Country
2. Rhyton
3. Joker On Fire
DAKOTA COUNTRY is a nose away from being 4 for 4 sprinting on turf in his career, and his last two figures stand out in this field as he ships in to face fellow NY-breds for the first time since breaking his maiden at Belmont over two years ago; just needs a trip from the outside. RHYTON overcame greenness to win his career debut late last year with a competitive figure; blew the start when returned from the layoff in June, then got away last again in that most recent start, before gamely gaining late ground to get second; can still do better, but he needs to break with the field this time. JOKER ON FIRE has improved since switching to turf to break his maiden last November; took a slight step down in class last time when conceding the early lead, and then failing to run down the winner late; in good form, and he is tactical from the inside.
Twelfth Race
1. Hedge Book
2. Nonconsecutivetrms
3. Amicable Farce
HEDGE BOOK had some trouble getting room to run, then had to bump her way clear in the stretch, before finishing well too late in her debut; returned to turf last time, where she was hopelessly blocked all the way down past midstretch as the leaders got away from her; rates one more chance for top connections. NONCONSECUTIVETRMS has run a series of competitive races on turf, though she has come up short three times already after making the lead in the stretch, including that last one when only second-best to an impressive winner; adds Lasix looking to get over the hump. AMICABLE FARCE raced keenly in the early stages and was easily outfinished in her debut here as a 2yo; ran an improved race off the layoff when shaking free late to gain ground on a front-running winner; logical contender right back.
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