Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 1, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have gone 192-120 for +49.37 units, an ROI of +15.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (-120 vs KC), MILWAUKEE (-123 at LAA)
Trend: Max Fried’s teams are 23-5 (+15.24 units) in his last 28 starts vs NL Central opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-102 at CHC)
Trend: MIA is 6-22 (-20.99 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+1.5 at NYM)
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 172-93 SU (+41.82 units, ROI: 15.8%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-115 at CIN)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 177-135 for +3.82 units and an ROI of +1.2% after a 23-13, +6.79 unit run out of the break.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-136 vs MIA), SEATTLE (-171 vs MIN), TORONTO (-156 vs STL), NY YANKEES (-102 at CHC), COLORADO (-120 vs KC)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 46-41 for -8.25 units (ROI: -9.5%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): TEXAS (-130 at HOU), PHILADELPHIA (-149 at BAL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 119-158 start for -3.26 units. After losing about 13 units over the last six-and-a-half weeks, this angle is finally back to the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+150 at ATL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 229-273 for -20.40 units, but did take a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 37-26, +13.78 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-104 vs PIT), HOUSTON (+108 vs TEX), BALTIMORE (+123 vs PHI), NY YANKEES (-102 at CHC), ARIZONA (+148 at CLE), BOSTON (+139 at LAD)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 192-120 for +49.37 units, an ROI of +15.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (-120 vs KC), MILWAUKEE (-123 at LAA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 142-172 start for -22.08 units (ROI -7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 58-79 for -20.39 units and a solid ROI -14.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – MINNESOTA (+141 at SEA)
3-games – CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+141 at TB)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 110-124 for +0.23 units. However, it has lost -13.07 units over the last three-and-a-half weeks.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-115 at CIN), PHILADELPHIA (-149 at BAL), TEXAS (-130 at HOU), WASHINGTON (+150 at ATL), LA ANGELS (+102 vs MIL), ATHLETICS (+139 vs DET)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 472-452 (51.1%) for +17.04 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.8%.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+139 vs DET)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,174-2,054 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.37 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+108 vs TEX), BOSTON (+141 at LAD), DETROIT (-168 at ATH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2223-2787 (44.4%) for -255.94 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ST LOUIS, WASHINGTON, TEXAS, KANSAS CITY, SAN FRANCISCO
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 172-93 SU (+41.82 units, ROI: 15.8%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-115 at CIN)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 236-275 SU but for +45.37 units (ROI: 8.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+139 vs DET)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 319-331 run (+9.32 units, ROI: 1.4%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-149 at BAL), PITTSBURGH (-115 at CIN), LA ANGELS (-102 vs MIL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 458-447 for +10.33 units, good for +1.1% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CINCINNATI -104 (+18 diff), ATHLETICS +139 (+17), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +141 (+15), HOUSTON +108 (+14), ARIZONA +148 (+11)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LA DODGERS -168 (+20 diff), SEATTLE -171 (+15)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where, on Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 109-83 for +16.00 units and an ROI of 7.4%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: MIA-NYM UNDER 9 (-0.8)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) MIAMI (56-55) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (47-64)
Trend: MIA is 6-22 (-20.99 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+1.5 at NYM)
(903) PITTSBURGH (55-56) at (904) CINCINNATI (52-57)
Trend: Over the total is 18-3 (+14.70 units) with starter Braxton Ashcraft since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-CIN (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: PIT is 9-23 (-18.91 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-115 at CIN)
(905) WASHINGTON (55-56) at (906) ATLANTA (65-45)
Trend: WSH is 38-16 (+17.94 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at ATL)
(907) SAN FRANCISCO (47-63) at (908) SAN DIEGO (56-54)
Trend: Under the total is 30-19-6 (+9.10 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-SD (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 40-17 (+8.56 units) when he starts against NL West competition since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-150 vs SF)
(909) MINNESOTA (56-55) at (910) SEATTLE (53-58)
Trend: SEA is 35-14 (+12.97 units) at home with starter Logan Gilbert versus AL opponents with a <=0.580 win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-171 vs MIN)
(911) CHICAGO-AL (58-51) at (912) TAMPA BAY (64-45)
Trend: Under the total is 22-13-2 (+7.55 units) when TB is a home favorite of -115 or higher with starter Drew Rasmussen since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-TB (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: TB is 47-35 (+25.62 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs CWS)
(913) TEXAS (55-55) at (914) HOUSTON (56-55)
Trend: TEX is 7-13 (-7.60 units) in the last 20 night games as a -130 favorite or less (including underdog) with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-130 at HOU)
(917) ST LOUIS (54-56) at (918) TORONTO (51-59)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 19-26 (-22.73 units) when he starts at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-156 vs STL)
(919) PHILADELPHIA (57-53) at (920) BALTIMORE (54-56)
Trend: PHI is 42-9 (+24.92 units) in favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-149 at BAL)
(921) NEW YORK-AL (62-48) at (922) CHICAGO-NL (62-48)
Trend: Max Fried’s teams are 23-5 (+15.24 units) in his last 28 starts vs NL Central opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-102 at CHC)
(923) ARIZONA (58-52) at (924) CLEVELAND (56-55)
Trend: Under the total is 27-18-4 (+7.20 units) when AZ is a ML underdog this season
Trend: Under the total is 13-3-1 (+9.55 units) in night games with starter Parker Messick in his career
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-CLE (o/u at 8.5)
(925) KANSAS CITY (46-65) at (926) COLORADO (43-67)
Trend: KC is 20-38 (-14.97 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+100 at COL)
(929) MILWAUKEE (68-41) at (930) LOS ANGELES-AL (42-68)
Trend: LAA is 25-49 (-15.08 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-102 vs MIL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): MIAMI, BOSTON, ATHLETICS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO CUBS, KANSAS CITY, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, SEATTLE, CLEVELAND
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-COL
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, August 3)
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