Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Sunday, August 2 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Lady Orient (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. Lady Orient
2. Dividend Recap
3. Bryant and Cooper
LADY ORIENT was a promising debut winner sprinting on the grass as a 2yo; she tried stakes horses in each of her first two starts routing on the surface, then ran on dirt for the next 13 months, including a couple of wins; was back on grass last time, where she raced in traffic before finishing third in an effort that is better than it looks; deserves another chance with Ortiz returning. DIVIDEND RECAP was a convincing maiden winner over this course and distance last July when first back from an extended layoff; won off the layoff again this year, and she has been pace and/or trip compromised in both starts since; the one to beat. BRYANT AND COOPER got experience in a pair of 2yo starts, then was ready to improve when brought back from the layoff last June to break her maiden; dropped to make it 2 for 3 in a limited 3yo campaign before the layoff; makes her second start back looking for some pace to come after.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other ten races on Sunday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Silly Season
2. Force of Mischief
3. Coach of the Year
SILLY SEASON raced greenly in the early stages after hitting the gate, then looked uncomfortable when caught in some traffic on the backstretch, but she still finished gamely to just miss in her lone 2yo start late last year; broke from the far outside and was never in position to be effective when finishing behind a few of these same rivals off the layoff; can easily do better. FORCE OF MISCHIEF endured a tough trip in her turf debut two back at a big price; she also finished behind a couple of these same fillies last time, though she was stuck wide throughout, and made a run to contention in the stretch before getting tired; she has been entered in a couple of $50 maiden claiming races recently, but she might be better than she looks on paper; blinkers on. COACH OF THE YEAR finally put it all together last time when working out the right trip and then blasting to the front late, only to be disqualified for interference; she had raced greenly early on, but seemed to be much more clued in last time.
Second Race
1. Grace and Grit
2. Kay Cup
3. Hot Currency
GRACE AND GRIT has run one good race after another since switching to this barn, and has done so over three different distances; was up against it two back when trying to close over a track that was kind to speed, and she might have come up with her best effiort to date last time when closing strongly into a quick pace over this track and trip; going good now, and she might have something to run at late once again. KAY CUP won her first two starts as a 3yo with Beyers of 84 and 86 (the top two figures in this field), including a top figure win in the Bouwerie on this track, then tried to stretch out with mixed results; landed in a couple of tough races when turned back last December, and actually ran well both times without winning; dangerous if ready off the layoff. HOT CURRENCY is the lone 3yo in the field, though she has run races that make her a contender in here, and she has the tactical speed to land a trip; needs her best.
Third Race
1. Burninhunkoflove
2. Norwich
3. Shoot the Nickel
BURNINHUNKOFLOVE was steadied back to last in a race that was dominated on the lead here last month; capable of getting forward position from the inside with a better start; goes off the claim again, this time for a barn that has won with three of its first four starters at the meet – and all of those winners were first off the claim. NORWICH controlled the pace but could not hold off fellow class-dropper and race favorite Normandy Coast when turned back to seven furlongs last time; drops back slightly in distance again as he wheels back quickly off the claim. SHOOT THE NICKEL scored a rallying win with an 86 Beyer earlier this year in the mud; has been second-best in his two most recent starts, including that last one when outclosed by longshot winner Princip on this track; Prat sticks for the second start off the Rice claim.
Fifth Race
1. Mo Kreesa
2. Salt Spartan
3. Coach Case
MO KREESA consistently runs races that make him competitive in a field like this one, where he drops subtly in class; capable of racing forward if the pace doesn’t develop, and there does not appear to be a ton of speed in this field. SALT SPARTAN rallied from just off the leaders to win his turf debut here last September in a bit of an upset; has run well in all three completed starts on the surface since, including that last one when trying to wire a longer race that was won by the undefeated Carc Brothers with an 89 Beyer. COACH CASE was also a maiden winner here last year, after which he failed to clear his first-level allowance condition in four attempts before a layoff; dropped for his return, and he had a shot at that race up the inside before settling for second; blinkers come off to try again.
Sixth Race
1. Modest Maclean
2. King Lucky
3. My Togo
MODEST MACLEAN is by speed-influence Maclean’s Music, and is a half-brother to two quality runners in Arctic Arrogance (stakes winner, Grade 2-3-placed) and Overstep (stakes-placed, 92 Beyer top), both debut winners; draws outside and gets Irad for the debut. KING LUCKY ships in for an underrated trainer with some good works showing; the dam won five times sprinting on dirt and was a debut winner, and this gelding is a half to multiple graded stakes winner Prince Lucky, who was also a debut winner (106 Beyer top). MY TOGO is up from Monmouth to debut for top connections, and he might be better suited to this longer distance than some of the others; his older half-sister Tough Street, who also raced for Brown, is best up to a mile, has seven wins on her card so far, and has earned over $500k in her career.
Seventh Race
1. Creditworthy
2. Nobals
3. Clock Tower
CREDITWORTHY has run well in all six starts to date while winning half the time, including both prior starts over this course and distance; strong finisher lands in a race that projects to get competitive up front; dangerous if ready off the bench. NOBALS is a prior Breeders’ Cup winner, and he was still tough in graded stakes company last year while shipping around to make starts at six different tracks; gained into a fast pace to just miss off the layoff in June; back to turf after a disappointing run on the all-weather last time. CLOCK TOWER turned back to win a stakes race on turf last May before being sidelined; he did not have a good trip in the Shakertown off the layoff, but paired his Beyer top in his next start, then got in too tough last time; better fit here; Lasix on.
Eighth Race
1. Survie
2. Speed Shopper
3. Bellezza
SURVIE held her own with top competition in France over the last two years going long; got a win off the layoff as a 5yo, but hasn’t been stretched back out since; gets this far, and she looks like a strong fit in this field. SPEED SHOPPER has run one good race after another since being given more distance to work with, and she has a potent combination of tactical speed and a strong finish in these longer races; back in a better spot after trying to go shorter against the top mares in this division last time. BELLEZZA finished a good second in this race last year when confronted with a boggy turf course; bounced out of that with a strong effort to win the Flower Bowl, then ran an underrated race with a no-chance trip at the Breeders’ Cup; ran poorly off the bench in Florida, then got shut off in the stretch last time; dangerous with her good race.
Ninth Race
1. Blackout Time
2. Chief Wallabee
3. Sea Strike
BLACKOUT TIME looked like one of the more talented colts in this crop despite only managing three starts as a juvenile; things didn’t go right for him after an underrated effort in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, and he failed to impress in his two Derby preps this year, while tiring badly both times; a switch to turf was contemplated, but he stayed on dirt after a short fresheneing, and he looked like he might be back on track when overpowering allowance rivals in the slop last month; talented colt can work his way back into the the picture with another step forward here. CHIEF WALLABEE has more than held his own at the top of this 3yo division from the start, though he only has a maiden win to his credit at this point; unclear what his best distance is right now – or will ultimately be – but cutting back for this is a positive; the clear horse to beat. SEA STRIKE made an eye-catching debut when scoring with a big finish after looking very green early; landed in a tough allowance race on the Belmont Stakes undercard, where he was too far away early, before racing in traffic through the stretch; has talent and upside, but the distance is a question, and he is not getting lost in the wagering in this spot.
Tenth Race
1. Scarlett Begonia
2. Pierette
3. Washton
SCARLETT BEGONIA was outpaced to the lead in her debut, but she raced through kickback early and then produced a big finish once into the clear in the stretch to run that field of maidens over; steps right up for a hot barn, PIERETTE is 2 for 2 and is already a stakes winner, and she also earned to co-top figure in this field for her game win in the Debutante last time; clearly a forward filly, as she has raced professionally behind horses before producing a good finish in both starts so far. WASHTON was entered for turf in the debut; stayed in when that race was switched to a sloppy main track, and she deserves extra credit for that win as she was bumped hard and knocked into the rail while squeezing through on the inside in the stretch; always expect 2yos form this barn to improve with racing,
Eleventh Race
1. Bouquetry
2. Tactically
3. Peggie Castle
BOUQUETRY faced open MSW foes on debut last summer, then shipped here to face fellow NY-breds in her second start, where she did a lot of racing on the pace before weakening late; has run twice on turf since, including the return from the layoff; back to dirt, this time to face maiden claimers. TACTICALLY was the lone firster in that field when debuting over a mile in the face of 2/5 favorite Close the Loop, who dominated that race on the lead; this looks like a better spot as she turns back and drops in class. PEGGIE CASTLE was unable to make the lead in two starts vs open maiden claimers in Kentucky for his prior trainer; ships up to face NY-breds, and might be faster early than it appears.
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