Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 2, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: MIA is 18-3 (+13.86 units) as a road favorite with starter Sandy Alcantara since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-123 at NYM)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 52-23 SU for +15.43 units (ROI: 20.6%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-158 vs AZ)
Trend: Under the total is 44-17-1 (+25.70 units) when starter Zack Wheeler is on the road and faces teams within 41.5-62% win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-BAL (o/u at 7.5)
* Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 36-74 (-10.16 units, ROI: -9.2%) in their last 110 tries.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+152 at LAD)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 180-137 for +4.47 units and an ROI of +1.4% after a 26-15, +7.44 unit run out of the break.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-137 vs PIT), TORONTO (-136 vs STL), NY YANKEES (-127 at CHC), BOSTON (+152 at LAD)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 47-42 for -8.51 units (ROI: -9.6%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CINCINNATI (-137 vs PIT)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 67-101 for -38.17 units and an ROI of -22.7%! Fading these teams continues to produce.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-120 vs WSH), NY METS (+102 vs MIA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 119-159 start for -4.26 units. After losing about 14 units over the last six-and-a-half weeks, this angle is finally back to the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+113 at TOR), COLORADO (-131 vs KC)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 37-20 but for -12.6 units so far but did go 3-0 since the ASB.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-232 at LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 232-276 for -19.27 units, but did take a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 40-29, +14.91 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+114 vs PHI), ARIZONA (+131 at CLE), NY METS (+102 vs MIA), BOSTON
(+152 at LAD)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 192-120 for +49.37 units, an ROI of +15.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-122 vs WSH), TORONTO (-123 vs STL), DETROIT (-115 at ATH)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 142-173 start for -23.08 units (ROI -7.3%).
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-123 at NYM)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 112-128 for -2.03 units. However, it has lost -15.33 units over the last three-and-a-half weeks.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+102 at ATL), ST LOUIS (+102 at TOR), TEXAS (+113 at HOU), KANSAS CITY (+109 at COL), LA ANGELS (+188 vs MIL), ATHLETICS (-104 vs DET)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 463-486 but for +30.37 units and an ROI of 3.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+102 at ATL), ST LOUIS (+102 at TOR), TEXAS (+113 at HOU), KANSAS CITY (+109 at COL), LA ANGELS (+188 vs MIL), ATHLETICS (-104 vs DET)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 407-457 but for +90.87 units and an ROI of 10.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+131 at CLE), TEXAS (+113 at HOU), KANSAS CITY (+109 at COL), BOSTON (+152 at LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 52-23 SU for +15.43 units (ROI: 20.6%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-158 vs AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,177-2,054 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -263.76 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (+131 at CLE), COLORADO (-131 vs KC)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,223-2,793 (44.3%) for -262.20 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+102 at TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at TB), NY YANKEES (-127 at CHC)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 663-557 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +15.94 units, for an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+114 vs PHI), TAMPA BAY (-163 vs CWS)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 68-44-5 (60.7%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 38-17 Over streak in the last 55).
System Match (PLAY OVER): KC-COL (o/u at 11.5)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 353-316 (52.8%) for +19.94 units and an ROI of 3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-158 vs AZ)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 199-238 SU record for +37.71 units and an ROI of 8.6% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+109 at COL), ATHLETICS (-104 vs DET)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 321-332 run (+10.32 units, ROI: 1.6%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+188 vs MIL), TEXAS (+113 at HOU), WASHINGTON (+102 at ATL)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 36-74 (-10.16 units, ROI: -9.2%) in their last 110 tries.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+152 at LAD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 462-453 for +8.89 units, good for +1% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON +152 (+35 diff), ARIZONA +144 (+25), LA ANGELS +193 (+20), KANSAS CITY +109 (+18), CHICAGO CUBS +105 (+18), SAN FRANCISCO +129 (+13)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CINCINNATI -137 (+34 diff), HOUSTON -142 (+26), TORONTO -136 (+25), PHILADELPHIA -136 (+20), SEATTLE -142 (+11), ATLANTA -120 (+10)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 111-83 for +18.00 units and an ROI of 9.3%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TEX-HOU UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), SF-SD UNDER 8 (-0.6), DET-ATH UNDER 11 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) WASHINGTON (55-57) at (952) ATLANTA (66-45)
Trend: WSH is 38-17 (+16.51 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-1.5 at ATL)
(953) MIAMI (57-55) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (47-65)
Trend: MIA is 18-3 (+13.86 units) as a road favorite with starter Sandy Alcantara since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-123 at NYM)
(955) PITTSBURGH (56-56) at (956) CINCINNATI (52-58)
Trend: Under the total is 9-3 (+5.90 units) in divisional day games with starter Mitch Keller since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CIN (o/u at 8.5)
(957) SAN FRANCISCO (47-64) at (958) SAN DIEGO (57-54)
Trend: SF is 3-10 (-7.09 units) versus divisional opponents with starter Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+129 at SD)
Trend: Over the total is 14-2 (+11.70 units) as favorites within -115 to -165 line range against NL teams with starter Michael King since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-SD (o/u at 8)
(959) CHICAGO-AL (58-52) at (960) TAMPA BAY (65-45)
Trend: CWS is 4-6 (-3.24 units) on the road with starter Anthony Kay this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at TB)
Trend: TB is 47-36 (+24.62 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs CWS)
(963) DETROIT (53-58) at (964) ATHLETICS (45-66)
Trend: ATH is 12-23 (-12.43 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-104 vs DET)
(965) MINNESOTA (56-56) at (966) SEATTLE (54-58)
Trend: Over the total is 34-17-4 (+15.30 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SEA (o/u at 7)
(967) PHILADELPHIA (58-53) at (968) BALTIMORE (54-57)
Trend: Under the total is 44-17-1 (+25.70 units) when starter Zack Wheeler is on the road and faces teams within 41.5-62% win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-BAL (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: PHI is 31-12 (+12.71 units) in the last 43 day game starts by Zack Wheeler
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-137 at BAL)
Trend: BAL is 7-3 (+2.10 units) in the last 10 home games with starter Kyle Bradish versus NL opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+114 vs PHI)
(969) ST LOUIS (54-57) at (970) TORONTO (52-59)
Trend: Over the total is 11-3-2 (+7.50 units) in road games with starter Matthew Liberatore against opponents with a <= 0.480 win pct since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): STL-TOR (o/u at 9)
Trend: Max Scherzer’s teams are 26-9 (+12.76 units) in his last 35 day games starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-125 vs STL)
(971) ARIZONA (59-52) at (972) CLEVELAND (56-56)
Trend: Under the total is 27-19-4 (+6.10 units) when AZ is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-CLE (o/u at 8)
(973) NEW YORK-AL (62-49) at (974) CHICAGO-NL (63-48)
Trend: Colin Rea’s teams have been good when he starts in the -120 to +135 line range (30-15 record, +16.39 units) in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+105 vs NYY)
(975) KANSAS CITY (46-66) at (976) COLORADO (44-67)
Trend: KC is 20-39 (-15.97 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+109 at COL)
Trend: COL is 37-24 (+20.72 units) at home against opponents with a <= 0.575 win pct with starter Kyle Freeland since start of 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (-131 vs KC)
(977) MILWAUKEE (69-41) at (978) LOS ANGELES-AL (42-69)
Trend: LAA is 25-50 (-16.08 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+188 vs MIL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): MINNESOTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ST LOUIS, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO CUBS, KANSAS CITY, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-TOR
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, August 3)
SPONSORED
TONY GEORGE from Docs Sports is at it again in MLB. This is nothing new for the 34-year veteran capper. He was #1 at Docs in 2024 in MLB with over +$13,600 in profits. Tony was up 71 units and +$5140 at the All-Star Break. In the last 14 days, Tony is +2440 (See here)
Another big plus is Tony is 14-5 with his Top Picks in MLB this year. Be sure to check out Tony’s action at Docs Sports daily.
