Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Thursday, July 30 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Ambition (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Ambition
2. Fortune Seller
3. Right to Win
AMBITION improved with the switch to turf last year, even while trying to stretch all the way out in distance after the easy maiden win; he won twice on dirt earlier this year, but his effort back on grass in April was solid while finishing well into a dominant, front-running winner, and he has a no-chance trip when rating wide from the break for twice this price in his next start; back to turf, this time in a much better spot. FORTUNE SELLER was first back from the layoff when failing to produce a strong finish at Tampa in May; was in too tough in his next start when off at a big price and breaking from the far outside post; drops and breaks from a great post this time. RIGHT TO WIN got the class relief he needed and won three of his last four starts as a 5yo, before being sold for $27k in November; drops back into a much better spot after getting in too tough in his first start for the new connections.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eight races on Thursday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Suited Connectors
2. Into the Unknown
3. Gotta Gun Runner
SUITED CONNECTORS landed in a big field when making her debut here last month, and she got a little lost in the wagering behind a heavily favored, blowout winner; she showed some potential in that race, however, as she got crushed at the start to wind up outrun last, then took a lot of dirt while racing behind horses, before altering clear and finishing well in the stretch; can improve quickly with that experience behind her. INTO THE UNKNOWN finished a few lengths ahead of SUITED CONNECTORS in that same 6/4 MSW going seven, and she also ran well there to finish second after breaking from the far outside post, returned to run well again behind another short-priced favorite last time going this distance; logical contender. GOTTA GUN RUNNER showed improved speed and came up with her best effort yet when settling for third behind INTO THE UNKNOWN last time; adds blinkers looking to take one more step forward.
Second Race
1. Scramjet
2. Autospell
3. Top Thriller
SCRAMJET is by a versatile sire in Uncle Mo (14% with first-time starters, 13% with turf sprinters); the dam won nine times in her career sprinting on dirt, and among her four winning foals so far is Just Add Water, who won twice sprinting on turf at Saratoga last summer; Rice 3 for her last 4 with first-time starters in turf sprints at Saratoga ($3.47 ROI). AUTOSPELL is by an excellent turf sire (17% with juvenile first-time starters and with turf sprinters); he is the first foal from an unraced dam; the second dam was a stakes winner on dirt, and her half-sister Take the Ribbon was a Grade 3 winner on the grass; this trainer/rider teamed up for a 2yo debut winner on the turf last Sunday. TOP THRILLER is by the versatile and precocious sire Vekoma; this is the female family of the versatile sprinter She’s Cheeky, who was Grade 1-placed on both dirt and synthetic; has been breezing right along, with a couple of bullets from the gate showing.
Third Race
1. Bedard
2. Perfect Force
3. Playing Tricks
BEDARD used his speed to go back-to-back right before enduring a long layoff after taking his first start for Cox early last year; landed in two very tough races when returned to the races at Fair Grounds, and he has improved with class relief since; good effort last time after missing the break; turns back with speed. PERFECT FORCE was in good form early last year, before moving into stakes company to no avail; spent the winter trying to close in tougher races at Oaklawn, a track that is often kind to speed; needs some pace, but he has a top race that makes him a contender at a fair price. PLAYING TRICKS made hard work of that last one when winding up down inside in the stretch, before failing to find a strong finish; was shaping with some potential prior to that, though he has always lacked early speed; dropping in class for this, and adding blinkers might help.
Fourth Race
1. Collado Hueco
2. Hadrian’s Wall
3. Preside
COLLADO HUECO is the first foal from Dunbar Road, who won the Alabama and hit the board in two Breeders’ Cup Distaffs for these connections; looked green after missing the break, then made a big stretch run that just fell short in his debut; stretches right out with upside. HADRIAN’S WALL ran well without winning in each of his first two starts; was first back from the layoff going this distance here last time, where he was forced to take back after breaking from an outside post, then finished gamely over a track that was carrying speed; looks dangerous moving inside, though he was listed as a vet scratch earlier in the meet. PRESIDE likely needed that first start when missing the break and then improved his position throughout, before flattening in the stretch; parlayed a good trip into an improved effort when stretched out over a sloppy track last time; the 95 Beyer he earned for that effort suggests that he will be hard to beat here.
Sixth Race
1. Pair of Socks
2. Run Classic
3. Factually Correct
PAIR OF SOCKS was claimed out of a win for about this price late last year, and his form has improved for Linda Rice while being kept in protected races in NY; drops back around the level of the claim, looking for a win after being freshened up. RUN CLASSIC has back races that make him too good for this field, though he hasn’t won a race in over two years; was still competitive with tougher horses early last year before missing time; has to prove that he can still run as he drops and turns back to make his first start for Sharp. FACTUALLY CORRECT is at his best when able to make the lead, and he is likely to be ridden aggressively from the gate in this spot with the only other main speed in the field drawn to his inside.
Seventh Race
1. Miss Ellary
2. Meg’s Foxy Grey
3. Princess Ny
MISS ELLARY isn’t a winning type, though she always shows up, and her last three starts around one turn all make her a major player in here, including that rallying second when turned back to sprint at Churchill last November; interesting new face to this group goes second off the layoff while turning back again. MEG’S FOXY GREY ran well in each of her first three starts off the claim for these connections, though she did lose a victory due to a medication violation, after which her form fell apart a bit; goes turf to dirt looking to get back on track, and Prat returns. PRINCESS NY turned back to win off the claim for Rice back in January; has earned competitive figures while settling for second in three straight since returning from a short break earlier in the year; tries again.
Eighth Race
1. Survie
2. Speed Shopper
3. Bellezza
SURVIE held her own with top competition in France over the last two years going long; got a win off the layoff as a 5yo, but hasn’t been stretched back out since; gets this far, and she looks like a strong fit in this field. SPEED SHOPPER has run one good race after another since being given more distance to work with, and she has a potent combination of tactical speed followed by a strong finish in these longer races; back in a better spot after trying to go shorter against the top mares in this division last time. BELLEZZA finished a good second in this race last year when confronted with a boggy turf course; bounced out of that with a strong effort to win the Flower Bowl, then ran an underrated race with a no-chance trip at the Breeders’ Cup; ran poorly off the bench in Florida, then got shut off in the stretch last time; dangerous with her good race.
Ninth Race
1. Moment’s Notice
2. Tamino
3. Heartily
MOMENT’S NOTICE has only started once previously on this surface, and thought he ran an underrated race that day while closing gamely late once he was able to alter course into the clear; has held his form since then when properly spotted on dirt; back to the grass off the claim. TAMINO began his career with two starts on turf, settling for second as the favorite both times while facing some tough competition; she appeared to lack a turn of foot in those races, but he handles the surface, and this is a much better spot. HEARTILY was a clear-cut winner of his debut on dirt, after which he tried a stakes race to no avail; dropping down significantly in class to make his turf debut for Ward, and he has speed.
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