MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, July 30.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:10 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan has been superb this season, posting a 3.09 ERA while allowing only 0.7 home runs per nine innings. He faces a Rangers lineup that ranks 21st in scoring with just over 4.2 runs per game. Texas sends Nathan Eovaldi to the mound, who has allowed quite a bit of hard contact with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings, contributing to his ERA rising to 4.05.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -147
1:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober owns a 4.56 ERA but is pitching to a lot of contact with a career-low 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He gets to face a Royals lineup that is averaging an MLB-low 3.6 runs per game and is now without Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals are currently listing “to be announced” as their starting pitcher, though it will likely be Noah Cameron, who has pitched better than his 4.93 ERA would indicate with a 4.03 fielding independent and 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Royals vs. Twins Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3 Runs
2:10 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
The Yankees entered Wednesday averaging fewer than 3.6 runs per game over their past 31 games and now face White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke, who owns a 3.19 ERA with 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers is recording 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings but owns a 4.25 ERA, due in large part to allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings. He has allowed at least four runs in six of his past 10 starts, while the White Sox rank sixth in home scoring with five runs per game.
Pick: Yankees vs. White Sox Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
2:15 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante has been reliable this season, posting a 3.77 ERA with 0.8 home runs and 2.6 walks allowed per nine innings. Cubs starting pitcher Javier Assad owns a 3.86 ERA but a 5.04 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings and is pitching to a lot of contact with only 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Cardinals -120 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -126 and Total 9.1
7:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean owns a 3.34 ERA with 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings, but most of his struggles have come at home, where he has a 4.33 ERA compared to a 2.29 ERA on the road while allowing only 0.5 home runs per nine innings away from home. Marlins starting pitcher Eury Pérez has been outstanding of late, allowing only eight runs across 46 1/3 innings over his past eight starts. However, he has pronounced career home-and-road splits, posting a lifetime 2.69 ERA with fewer than 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings at home compared to a 4.54 ERA with 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.
Pick: Marlins vs. Mets Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
7:15 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes appears due for regression on his 3.79 ERA, as he is allowing 1.4 home runs and four walks per nine innings, resulting in a 4.83 fielding independent. The Nationals are expected to activate Jake Irvin off the injured list. He will have the support of the top offense in baseball, as Washington is averaging nearly 5.5 runs per game. However, Irvin owns a 5.23 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings and has not pitched since May 23.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -140
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -166
