Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 16 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 7.5) at San Francisco Giants
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Giants (45-62) won the opener 3-0, coming through as +115 home dogs. Then the Brewers (67-40) bounced back with an 8-2 win last night, taking care of business as -155 road favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Brewers start lefty Shane Drohan (5-4, 3.51 ERA) and the Giants rebuttal with righty Logan Webb (5-7, 3.98 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -115 road favorite and San Francisco a -105 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Brewers laying short chalk to earn a win and take the series, driving Milwaukee up from -115 to -125.
At Circa, the Brewers are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor, like the Brew Crew here, are 79-50 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season.
When favored and receiving line movement in their direction, the Brewers are 33-18 (65%) with an 8% ROI this season, the 4th best chalk line move team in MLB.
Milwaukee offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Brewers have the superior offense, posting a .337 OBP with 543 runs scored compared to the Giants posting a .308 OBP and 441 runs scored.
Webb has posted a 7.54 ERA in four July starts, giving up 19 earned runs in 22.2 innings pitched. In addition, Milwaukee is hitting .262 against righties, 4th best in MLB.
The Brewers are 30-18 on the road, the 2nd best road team in MLB. The Giants are 25-27 at home.
6:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (-145, 7.5)
The Rangers (55-52) took last night’s series opener 4-1, coming through as +150 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rangers hand the ball to lefty MacKenzie Gore (6-8, 4.82 ERA) and the Rays (62-44) counter with righty Casey Legumina (2-2, 3.95 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -135 home favorite and Texas a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Rays to bounce back with a win at home, steaming Tampa Bay up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 72% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tampa Bay is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in their favor.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 150-93 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record receiving line movement in their favor who failed to make the playoffs the previous season are 61-39 (61%) with a 7% ROI this season.
When favored and receiving line movement in their direction, the Rays are 35-19 (65%) with a 13% ROI, the best chalk line move team in MLB.
Tampa Bay offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Gore has posted a 7.66 ERA in five July starts, giving up 21 earned runs in 24.2 innings pitched. He has a 6.02 ERA on the road compared to 3.61 at home.
The Rays are hitting .252 against lefties, 7th best in MLB.
Tampa Bay is 38-16 at home, the best home record in MLB.
10:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 9.5)
The Mariners (53-55) won last night’s Interleague series opener 7-6, hanging on as +195 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mariners send out righty Emerson Hancock (6-4, 3.16 ERA) and the Dodgers (67-40) tap lefty Eric Lauer (5-5, 4.83 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -150 home favorite and Seattle a +130 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Dodgers to avenge last night’s loss, driving Los Angeles up from -150 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are taking in 90% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Los Angeles is receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe split in their favor.
Home favorites in the second game of a series receiving line movement in their favor after losing the series opener, like the Dodgers here, have gone 24-11 (69%) with an 11% ROI this season.
When favored and receiving line movement in their direction, the Dodgers are 36-16 (69%) with an 8% ROI, the third best chalk line move team in MLB. When moderately priced as a -170 favorite or less, Los Angeles has gone 72-34 (68%) with a 15% ROI since 2022.
Los Angeles has the better offense, hitting .261 with 552 runs scored compared to Seattle hitting .231 with 436 runs scored.
The Dodgers are 8-0 in Lauer’s eight starts this season. Meanwhile, the Mariners are only hitting .224 against lefties, ranking 27th in MLB.
Los Angeles is 52-29 in night games. Seattle is 31-37.
The Dodgers are 31-20 at home. The Mariners are 23-32 on the road.
